Projections for 11/26/12

Now that Feast Week is over and the season is beginning to take shape, it's time for the first bracket projection of the season.


First Four Out:  Colorado State, St. Mary's, Stanford, Belmont


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Indiana
16 Gardner-Webb vs Texas Southern

8 Memphis
9 Oregon

5 NC State
12 Pittsburgh

4 Missouri
13 Bucknell

6 San Diego State
11 California

3 Kansas
14 Middle Tennessee

7 VCU
10 Tennessee

2 Syracuse
15 Loyola MD


West (#4 Overall)

1 Louisville
16 Florida Gulf Coast vs Savannah State

8 Wisconsin
9 Alabama

5 UNLV
12 St. Louis

4 Creighton
13 George Mason

6 Florida State
11 Ohio

3 Arizona
14 South Dakota State

7 Oklahoma State
10 Temple

2 Michigan
15 Montana


East (#2 Overall)

1 Duke
16 Oral Roberts

8 Colorado
9 Illinois

5 Georgetown
12 Iowa State vs Ole Miss

4 Michigan State
13 Harvard

6 Kansas State
11 Wichita State

3 Gonzaga
14 New Mexico State

7 Notre Dame
10 Butler

2 Florida
15 Long Beach State


South (#3 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 Robert Morris

8 Baylor
9 St. Joseph's

5 New Mexico
12 Illinois State vs Maryland

4 Cincinnati
13 Davidson

6 Minnesota
11 Marquette

3 North Carolina
14 Valparaiso

7 UCLA
10 Murray State

2 Kentucky
15 Vermont

2012-13 Season Predictions

Conference Champions

ACC:  Duke
Big East:  Louisville
Big 10:  Indiana
Big 12:  Baylor
Pac 12:  UCLA
SEC:  Kentucky
MWC:  San Diego State
A-10:  VCU
CUSA:  Memphis
WCC:  Gonzaga
MVC:  Creighton


Player of the Year:  Doug McDermott, Creighton

Coach of the Year:  Mark Turgeon, Maryland


NCAA Tournament

1 seeds:  Indiana, Louisville, Duke, Ohio State

Sleeper Teams:  UNLV, Kansas State, Cincinnati

Early Exits:  Arizona, Syracuse, Baylor

Cinderella:  Davidson

Final Four:  Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Gonzaga

National Champions:  Michigan Wolverines

Final Predictions

Midwest (#1 Overall)

Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Iowa State
9 Purdue

Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 VCU

4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State

Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia

3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State

Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas

2 Duke
15 Detroit


West (#4 Overall)

Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar

8 Memphis
9 Connecticut

Albuquerque, NM
5 Vanderbilt
12 Washington vs Drexel

4 Florida State
13 Belmont

Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier

3 Marquette
14 Davidson

Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis

Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Colorado State vs South Florida

4 Indiana
13 Ohio

Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California

3 Baylor
14 Montana

Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young

2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh


South (#3 Overall)

Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama

Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State

4 Louisville
13 Colorado

Columbus, OH
6 San Diego State
11 Southern Miss

3 Michigan
14 St. Bonaventure

Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard

2 Missouri
15 Long Island

Selection Sunday Bracket Predictions

For this bracket I have assumed that tomorrow's winners will be Xavier, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Michigan State.  This is not my final bracket;  I will post that during the Big 10 Championship.


South (#1 Overall)

Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Iowa State
9 Purdue

Albuquerque, NM
5 San Diego State
12 VCU

4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State

Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia

3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State

Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas

2 Duke
15 Detroit


West (#4 Overall)

Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar

8 Memphis
9 Connecticut

Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs Drexel

4 Florida State
13 Ohio

Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier

3 Marquette
14 Davidson

Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis

Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State

4 Indiana
13 South Florida vs NC State

Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California

3 Baylor
14 Montana

Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young

2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh


Midwest (#3 Overall)

Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky

8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama

Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Colorado State

4 Louisville
13 Colorado

Columbus, OH
6 Vanderbilt
11 Southern Miss

3 Michigan
14 Belmont

Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard

2 Missouri
15 Long Island

Bubble Rankings and Breakdown

With Xavier's win over St. Louis, they become the projected automatic bid from the A-10.  Even with a loss in the finals, I believe Xavier is now safely in the field.  That leaves 6 bids, with 8 teams (9 if Long Beach State loses tonight) still in the running. 

Here's my ranking of the teams on the bubble from most likely to least likely to get in.  I have drawn in the cutoff lines to show who gets knocked out if UC Santa Barbara and/or St. Bonaventure are able to win their conference tournaments.

West Virginia
Colorado State
South Florida
(Long Beach State)
Washington
------------------
Drexel
NC State
------------------
Mississippi State
Seton Hall


The teams I feel comfortable putting into the field are West Virginia and Colorado State.  Both teams have less than 20 wins against D-1 schools, but there are too many positives on their resumes to think they'll miss the field with this weak bubble. 

After that, things start to become real fuzzy.  Out of the remaining teams, the one I feel best about is South Florida.  While they have some ugly marks on their resume (6-6 OOC, 2-9 vs Top 50, 6-11 road/neutral), they're one of hte few bubble teams that actually played well down the stretch.  They went 7-3 in their last 10 games, and both Top 50 wins have come within the last two weeks.  Combine that with their 12-6 conference record and head-to-head win over Seton Hall, and I would be fairly surprised (but not shocked) if USF wasn't in the bracket tomorrow.

Another team that's nearly impossible to figure out is Washington.  The Huskies have the worst computer profile of any team on this list, with an RPI of 70 and 0 Top 50 wins.  Nevertheless, they did win the Pac 12 regular season title, and history has shown us the Selection Committee puts a great deal of value on conference titles.  Time and time again, there have been bubble teams with nothing good on their resume except being the regular season champs of a top 10 league (i.e., UAB last year), and every single time those teams have made it into the field.  I'm just not willing to bet against history, because Washington would the first team in the 64 team era to win a Top 10 conference and not make the NCAA field.

This might be picking with my heart more than my head, but I think it would be an absolute sham if NC State, Mississippi State, or Seton Hall, teams that had multiple chances to take care of business and didn't, got into the field, while a Drexel team that went 25-2 after doing poorly in November is relegated to the NIT.  It might end up being the wrong decision, but I have to go with the Dragons over those teams.

That leaves the three aforementioned teams, NC State, Miss State, and Seton Hall, for the last spot.  It's really splitting hairs at this point because they all have so many ugly spots on their resumes, but I've decided to go with NC State.  The 1-8 record vs Top 50 with the 1 win being Texas is a huge eye sore, but unlike the other two the Wolfpack played well down the stretch and had a winning record away from home (9-6 road/neutral). 

While there is, IMO, a definite gap between these squads and everyone else, there are numerous teams that cannot be ruled out as possible "shocker" inclusions tomorrow:

Iona, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Miami, Middle Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Marshall

I can't really make a compelling case for any of these teams to be in the field, but I can't rule any of them out either.

All in all, this is easily the most difficult year to predict the field since I started doing bracketology.  My Selection Sunday bracket will be posted right after the conclusion of the WAC championship.

March 10 Bubble Update

Here's a general snapshot of where things stand as of 4pm EST.  A full ranking and breakdown of the bubble will be coming at the conclusion of tonight's games.

I believe Long Beach State would be right on the bubble with a loss tonight, which leaves 2 more potential bid stealers (UC Santa Barbara and St. Bonaventure).


Projected Automatic Bids (the auto bid in every remaining conference tournament goes to the highest remaining seed)

North Carolina, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Missouri, Arizona, Kentucky, San Diego State, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Creighton, Memphis, Harvard, Murray State, Loyola-Maryland, Vermont, Belmont, Montana, UNC Asheville, Long Beach State, VCU, Detroit, Akron, Norfolk State, Long Island, Lehigh, Davidson, Lamar, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Mississippi Valley State

At-large locks (24 at-large bids)

Duke, Florida State, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, UNLV, New Mexico, Temple, Gonzaga, Wichita State

Teams that look Safe (6 at-large bids)

Virginia, Connecticut, Texas, California, Southern Miss, Brigham Young

Bubble (10/11 teams for 7 bids)

NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Seton Hall, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss (with a win vs Vanderbilt), Colorado State, Xavier, Drexel, Iona

At-large Longshots

Northwestern, Miami (FL), Arizona/Colorado loser, Oregon, Tennessee, Ole Miss (with a loss vs Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Marshall

Projections for 3/10/12

Ole Miss is currently the last team in the field, but must beat Vanderbilt to hold onto their spot.

First Four Out:  Mississippi State, NC State, Seton Hall, Northwestern

Next Four Out:  Iona, Miami (FL), Tennessee, Oral Roberts

Still Alive:  Oregon, Middle Tennessee, Nevada


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Gonzaga
9 Connecticut

5 San Diego State
12 VCU

4 Georgetown
13 Akron

6 Temple
11 West Virginia

3 Michigan
14 Montana

7 Murray State
10 Virginia

2 Missouri
15 Detroit


West (#4 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Lamar

8 Memphis
9 Alabama

5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs South Florida

4 Florida State
13 South Dakota State

6 St. Mary's
11 Colorado State

3 Marquette
14 New Mexico State

7 Vanderbilt
10 Texas

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Iowa State
9 St. Louis

5 Florida
12 Long Beach State

4 Indiana
13 Arizona

6 Creighton
11 Southern Miss

3 Wisconsin
14 Davidson

7 Notre Dame
10 Brigham Young

2 Duke
15 Lehigh


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky

8 Kansas State
9 Purdue

5 Wichita State
12 Xavier

4 Louisville
13 Drexel vs Ole Miss

6 Cincinnati
11 California

3 Baylor
14 Belmont

7 UNLV
10 Harvard

2 Ohio State
15 Long Island

East Coast Bubble Update

Now that the bubble picture is becoming clearer, here's a summary of the bubble teams in the (predominately) East Coast conferences:  the ACC, Big East, and Atlantic 10.


ACC

Despite Virginia losing today and having their RPI fall out of the Top 50, I think the signature win over Michigan keeps the Cavs in the field.  Their seed will probably be 10 or worse, but with this weak bubble I don't see any way Virginia is left out of the field entirely.

NC State (22-11, 9-7 ACC)

Computer profile:  RPI 48, SOS 31.  1-7 vs Top 50 (win over Texas).  6-9 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (Georgia Tech, Clemson).  9-5 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  The road/neutral record and sweep over Miami is nice, but other than that the resume is very barren.  Fact is, NC State had multiple opportunities to pick up a signature win with home games against Syracuse, UNC, Florida State, and Indiana.  It's really hard to justify giving an at-large bid to a team that went 0-4 in those home games.  Obviously, if they beat UNC tomorrow this is all moot and they're in the field.

NCAA chances:  50/50

Miami (FL) (19-12, 9-7 ACC)

Computer profile:  RPI 55, SOS 47.  2-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Duke, Florida State).  3-11 vs Top 100.  1 sub-100 loss (@Maryland).  6-8 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  The Hurricanes have signature wins over Duke and FSU, but the rest of their profile is just awful.  A team with a win percentage that bad vs the Top 100 getting an at-large is unheard of, plus they were swept by fellow bubble team NC State during the regular season.  Unless the committee decides to make signature wins the most important factor for bubble teams, it's nearly impossible to see Miami getting in at this point.

NCAA chances:  Slim

Big East

With Connecticut and Cincinnati having successful Big East tournaments, 3 teams are now left on the bubble.


West Virginia (19-13, 9-9 Big East)

Computer profile:  RPI 56, SOS 14.  5-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Akron, Kansas State, Marshall, Cincinnati), 9-11 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (Kent State, @St. John's).  8-8 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  The Mountaineers have really struggled down the stretch, only managing a 4-8 record in their last 12 games.  The committee says last 12 games is no longer a factor, but we'll see how true that is on Sunday.  If they're serious and it doesn't matter, then based on their overall profile, WVU will be in the field.  If it does matter, then WVU will be in the NIT.

NCAA Chances:  Good


South Florida (20-13, 12-6 Big East)

Computer profile:  RPI 54, SOS 26.  2-9 vs Top 50 (wins over Cincinnati and Louisville).  6-10 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (Old Dominion, Penn State, Auburn).  6-10 road/neutral. 

Bottom line:  USF blew a golden opportunity to lock up an NCAA bid last night against Notre Dame.  The bad losses will not carry much weight because all 3 came before December 15.  Just like West Virginia, the Bulls will be a good litmus test for what the committee finds important.  If the committee puts more weight on conference play than non-con, USF will be in the field.  If they don't, USF will be in the NIT.  The committee did leave out an Alabama team last year that went 12-4 in the SEC, but that team had an RPI in the 80s, while South Florida's RPI is much more normal for a bubble team.

NCAA chances:  50/50


Seton Hall (20-12, 8-10 Big East)

Computer profile:  RPI 65, SOS 51.  3-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Connecticut, VCU).  7-9 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (Villanova, Rutgers, Depaul). 

Bottom line:  Seton Hall has a signature win over Georgetown, but other than that their resume is very barren.  Fact is, from top to bottom the Big East is not as good as it's been the last few years.  An 8-10 record in this league will not hold much weight with the committee (UConn gets a pass because they played a tougher conference schedule and challenged themselves out of conference).  At the end of the day, I think South Florida has an edge over Seton Hall thanks to their head-to-head win against the Pirates.  Additionally, their bad losses all came in the last 2 months of the year.  I know committee says when the wins and losses occur doesn't matter, but I have a hard time believing the human element won't come into play and dissuade them from putting the Pirates in the field.

NCAA chances:  Below Average


Atlantic 10

Temple and St. Louis are locked into the tournament field, which leaves Xavier as the only bubble team in the league.  Dayton might have had a chance to get in, but not now after losing in the A-10 quarters.


Xavier (20-11, 10-6 A-10)

Computer profile:  RPI 57, SOS 47.  3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati).  7-10 vs Top 100.  1 sub-100 loss (Hawaii).  6-8 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  It's a tale of 2 seasons for Xavier.  At the time of the Cincinnati brawl, the Musketeers had moved to 8-0 on the season with 3 top 50 wins.  Since then, Xavier has gone 12-11, with no Top 50 wins and an embarassing loss against sub-200 Hawaii.  Here's another case study for how much emphasis the committee puts on conference play.  The Musketeers need to beat St. Louis tomorrow to feel good about their chances.  If they don't, they'll be a very nervous group on Sunday. 

NCAA chances:  50/50

March 8 Bubble Update

Today's post will focus on the bubble teams in the Big 10 and SEC.


Big 10

6 teams have locked up bids, making Northwestern the only team with work to do in the conference tournament.


Northwestern (18-12, 8-10 Big 10)

Computer profile:  RPI 47, SOS 12.  1-10 vs Top 50 (win over Michigan State).  5-12 vs Top 100.  no sub-100 losses.  7-7 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  Northwestern does have solid RPI and SOS numbers, and the win over the Spartans might be the best win for any bubble team.  The record against Top 50 and Top 100 are huge eye sores, however.  Northwestern has to beat Minnesota and Michigan to feel safe on Selection Sunday.  A loss against Michigan would leave them right near the cut line, while a loss against Minnesota would almost certainly send them to the NIT.

NCAA Chances:  Fair


SEC

With the lack of bid stealers early on in Championship Week, I believe Alabama is now safe for a bid.  That leaves 3 teams with work to do in the conference tournament.


Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8 SEC)

Computer profile:  RPI 66, SOS 66.  2-4 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt and Alabama).  8-8 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (Georgia, @Auburn).  6-7 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  Miss State is one of the biggest enigmas this season.  They looked like a lock 4 weeks ago, but a horrible 2 week stretch has really put a dent in their NCAA hopes.  One thing working in Miss State's favor is their record against fellow bubble teams:  the Bulldogs have gone 4-1 against Arizona, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss.  As with many other teams, Miss State needs 2 wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt to secure their spot in the NCAA field.  Anything less and they'll have to sweat it out on Sunday.

NCAA chances:  50/50


Tennessee (18-13, 10-6 SEC)

Computer profile:  RPI 76, SOS 31.  4-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Florida x2, Vanderbilt, Connecticut).  7-9 vs Top 100.  4 sub-100 losses (@Oakland, Austin Peay, @Charleston, @Georgia).  3-10 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  Clearly, if this was just about computer profiles, Tennessee would be out.  But the fact is, most of those bad losses came early in the season, and Tennessee has been a completely different team since Stokes was cleared to play.  The fact is, with him in the lineup, Tennessee was able to tie Florida and Vanderbilt for 2nd place in the SEC and go 3-1 against those 2 teams.  The Vols are going to be a great barometer for how much emphasis the committee puts on how teams play early in the season and how teams play with incomplete rosters.

IMO, Tennessee has to make the finals to have a realistic chance at an at-large.

NCAA chances:  Below average


Ole Miss (18-12, 8-8 SEC)

Computer profile:  RPI 59, SOS 39.  1-6 vs Top 50 (win over Alabama).  6-11 vs Top 100.  1 sub-100 loss (@Auburn).  6-10 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  Despite being virtually invisible for the last month of the season, Ole Miss has quietly worked themselves back onto the bubble.  In the end, I think the Rebels' lack of signature wins will doom them to the NIT.  If they can make the SEC finals, though, they'll certainly be in the running for one of the last spots in the field.

NCAA chances:  Slim

Projections for 3/8/12

Some minor seed changes were necessary for the Big East, but other than that the only changes once again come on the 13-16 seed lines.


First Four Out:  Oregon, Drexel, Seton Hall, Arizona

Next Four Out:  Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Oral Roberts


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis

5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern

4 Florida State
13 VCU

6 Notre Dame
11 Texas

3 Michigan
14 Davidson

7 Gonzaga
10 California

2 Missouri
15 Detroit


West (#4 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Memphis
9 Alabama

5 New Mexico
12 West Virginia

4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada

6 Creighton
11 Washington

3 Georgetown
14 Akron

7 Iowa State
10 Harvard

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Virginia
9 Purdue

5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State

4 Temple
13 South Dakota State

6 Florida
11 South Florida

3 Baylor
14 Montana

7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young

2 Ohio State
15 Long Island


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky

8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati

5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State

4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)

6 St. Mary's
11 Southern Miss

3 Marquette
14 Belmont

7 San Diego State
10 Connecticut

2 Duke
15 Lehigh

Western U.S. Bubble Update

Over the next three days I will be breaking down the bubble teams from conferences expected to receive multiple bids.  Today's post will be about the 3 conferences west of the Mississippi:  the Pac 12, MWC, and Big 12.


Pac 12

While nobody in the Pac 12 has locked up a bid, I ultimately think they will end up with 3 bids.


Washington (21-9, 14-4 Pac 12)

Computer profile:  RPI 54, SOS 82.  0-6 vs Top 50.  4-8 vs Top 100.  1 sub-100 loss (@UCLA).  6-7 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  Despite the awful computer profile, I think the Huskies are in good shape for an NCAA bid.  They won the Pac 12 outright, and since the field expanded to 64 no outright champion of a Top 10 conference has ever failed to make the NCAA tournament.  And yes, as bad as the Pac 12 was this year, it was still rated as one of the Top 10 leagues.  Expect the Huskies to be in the bracket on Sunday regardless of what happens in the Pac 12 tournament.

NCAA Chances:  Very good


California (23-8, 13-5 Pac 12)

Computer profile:  RPI 37, SOS 94.  0-3 vs Top 50.  7-6 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (@Oregon State, @Washington State).  6-7 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  California would be locked into the field had they not dropped their last 2 games.  Even though they don't count as Top 50, I think their roads win at Washington and Oregon were quality victories.  As it is, the lack of a signature win is the only thing holding Cal back from locking up a bid.  They're probably in regardless of what happens in the Pac 12 tournament, but they need to make the finals to be absolutely safe.

NCAA chances:  Good


Oregon (22-8, 13-5 Pac 12)

Computer profile:  RPI 51, SOS 91.  0-5 vs Top 50.  5-7 vs Top 100.  1 sub-100 loss (Oregon State).  7-5 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  The computer profile is clearly not good, but the Ducks get a bit of a bump because they have been playing the best basketball in the Pac 12 since finally getting their full roster intact.  I think Oregon has to make the Pac 12 finals to get in, and at that point they would probably be wise to win it and erase all doubt.

NCAA chances:  Fair


Arizona (21-10, 12-6 Pac 12)

Computer profile:  RPI 78, SOS 119.  1-3 vs Top 50 (win over California).  5-8 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (@UCLA, @Arizona State).  7-7 road/neutral

Bottom line:  Arizona really shot themselves in the foot by losing to Arizona State (RPI 248) on the last game of the regular season.  The Wildcats have to make the Pac 12 championship to have a chance, and even then they might need the auto-bid to make the field.

NCAA chances:  Slim


Mountain West

3 teams have already locked up bids, which means Colorado State is the only bubble team in this league.


Colorado State (18-10, 8-6 MWC)

Computer profile:  RPI 22, SOS 8.  3-5 vs Top 50 (wins over SDSU, New Mexico, UNLV).  8-9 vs Top 100.  1 sub-100 loss (@Boise State).  5-9 road/neutral

Bottom line:  The Rams' computer profile is excellent, but the overall record and road/neutral record in a non-power league leave CSU's future in doubt.  A trip to the Mountain West finals would probably seal the deal, but they cannot afford to lose their first game against TCU.  It would be pretty hypocritcal to put 8-10 Big East and Big Ten teams in the field while leaving out a Colorado State team with a top 10 SOS, but I wouldn't put it past the committee.

NCAA chances:  50/50


Big 12

5 teams have locked up bids, which means Texas is the only bubble team in this league.


Texas (19-12, 9-9 Big 12)

Computer profile:  RPI 52, SOS 22.  3-9 vs Top 50 (wins over Temple, Iowa State, Kansas State).  4-10 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses.  4-9 road/neutral

Bottom line:  If you've seen Texas play the last two months, then you know the Longhorns are better than their record.  Texas is a classic case of a team that passes the eye test but has a weak resume.  Traditionally, the committee would put these teams in the 8/9 slots, but with the addition of the First Four, that seems like a more likely spot.  A win over Iowa State will put the Longhorns in good shape for a bid.  A loss will leave them hoping there are no bid stealers this weekend, as they would be one of the last teams in or out.

NCAA chances:  Decent

Projections for 3/7/12

Once again, the only changes to the bracket come in the 13-16 seeds.  Seton Hall moves up slightly with their win over Providence, but I just cannot envision them making the field unless they beat Louisville today.


First Four Out:  Seton Hall, Oregon, Drexel, Arizona

Next Four Out:  Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Middle Tennessee


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis

5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern

4 Florida State
13 VCU

6 Notre Dame
11 Texas

3 Michigan
14 Davidson

7 Gonzaga
10 California

2 Missouri
15 Detroit


West (#4 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Memphis
9 Alabama

5 New Mexico
12 South Florida

4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada

6 Creighton
11 Washington

3 Georgetown
14 Akron

7 Iowa State
10 Harvard

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Virginia
9 Purdue

5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State

4 Temple
13 South Dakota State

6 Florida
11 West Virginia

3 Baylor
14 Montana

7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young

2 Ohio State
15 Long Island


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Western Kentucky vs Savannah State

8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati

5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State

4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)

6 St. Mary's
11 Connecticut

3 Marquette
14 Belmont

7 San Diego State
10  Southern Miss

2 Duke
15 Bucknell

March 6 Bubble Update

This post will discuss the bubble teams that have already lost in their conference tournaments.  Teams are listed in order from most likely to least likely to make the field.  All statistics courtesy of warrennolan.com.


Brigham Young (23-8, 12-4 WCC) 

Computer Profile:  RPI 47, SOS 95.  3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Gonzaga, Nevada, Oregon).  5-6 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (@Utah State, Loyola-Marymount).  12-5 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  BYU's profile is pretty favorable when compared with the power conference bubble teams.  If today was Selection Sunday, the Cougars would definitely be in the field.  Unfortunately for them, it's not, and alot of those resumes are going to improve between now and Sunday.  With that being said, while I would not be surprised to see them fall into 12 seed/first four territory, I would be very surprised if they missed the tournament altogether.

NCAA Chances:  Good (~80%)


Drexel (27-6, 16-2 CAA)

Computer Profile:  RPI 66, SOS 210.  1-2 vs Top 50 (win over VCU).  4-3 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (Norfolk State, @Delaware, @Georgia State).  14-6 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  While the computer profile is lacking, Drexel gets a bump because they went 25-2 after starting the year 2-4.  If it were up to me, the Dragons would be in the field of 68.  It isn't though, so the Dragons will have to wait and hope alot of bubble teams fall early in their conference tournaments.

NCAA Chances:  Fair (~40%)


Iona (25-7, 15-3 MAAC)

Computer Profile:  RPI 43, SOS 145.  1-1 vs Top 50 (win over Nevada).  5-3 vs Top 100.  4 sub-100 losses (@Hofstra, @Siena, Manhattan, Fairfield).  15-6 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  Iona's computer profile is better than you would expect, which keeps them alive for an at-large bid.  Unfortunately for the Gaels, they just don't have a signature win to offset that many bad losses.

NCAA Chances:  Slim (~20%)


Oral Roberts (27-6, 17-1 Summit)

Computer Profile:  RPI 49, SOS 188.  0-2 vs Top 50.  3-3 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (UTSA, @Oklahoma, Western Illinois).  12-6 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  South Dakota State and Xavier are currently sitting at 51 and 57 in the RPI, so there's a good chance Oral Roberts will eventually end up with a top 50 win.  Unfortunately for them, that is unlikely to change their fate.  The Golden Eagles have had a great season, but they are very likely going to end up in the NIT.

NCAA Chances:  Slim (~15%)


Middle Tennessee (25-6, 14-2 Sun Belt)

Computer Profile:  RPI 59, SOS 184.  0-1 vs Top 50.  3-3 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (@UAB, @Western Kentucky, Arkansas State).  11-5 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  2 weeks ago Middle Tennessee appeared to be decent shape for an at-large bid.  Now that they've ended the season with back-to-back bad losses against Western Kentucky and Arkansas State, however, I can't see them getting in with their best wins being Belmont, Akron, and Ole Miss.

NCAA Chances:  Very Slim (~10%)

Projections for 3/6/12

The only changes to today's bracket come in the 13-16 seed lines.  Everyone else remains the same.


First Four Out:  Oregon, Seton Hall, Drexel, Arizona

Next Four Out:  Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Middle Tennessee


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 North Texas vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis

5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern

4 Florida State
13 VCU

6 Notre Dame
11 Texas

3 Michigan
14 Davidson

7 Gonzaga
10 California

2 Missouri
15 Valparaiso


West (#4 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Memphis
9 Alabama

5 New Mexico
12 South Florida

4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada

6 Creighton
11 Washington

3 Georgetown
14 Akron

7 Iowa State
10 Harvard

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Virginia
9 Purdue

5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State

4 Temple
13 South Dakota State

6 Florida
11 West Virginia

3 Baylor
14 Montana

7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young

2 Ohio State
15 Long Island


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State

8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati

5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State

4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miani (FL)

6 St. Mary's
11 Connecticut

3 Marquette
14 Belmont

7 San Diego State
10 Southern Miss

2 Duke
15 Bucknell

March 5 Bubble Update

This post is to provide a general overview of where things stand as of right now.  I will provide a more detailed analysis of the bubble as teams begin to play in their conference tournaments.  Teams that have already won automatic bids will not appear on this list.


Locks (32 Teams comprising 23 At-Large bids)

North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Temple, St. Louis, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Memphis


Should Be In, but Still Some Work to Do (6 Teams comprising 5 At-Large bids)

Cincinnati, Washington, California, Alabama, Southern Miss, Brigham Young


Projected Auto-Bid Winners that Would be on the Bubble

Harvard, Long Beach State, Drexel, Oral Roberts


Bubble (15 teams, 9 bids left)

Miami (FL), West Virginia, Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, Northwestern, Texas, Arizona, Oregon, Mississippi State, Xavier, Colorado State, VCU, Iona, Middle Tennessee


Teams on the Outside that Could Play Their Way Onto the Bubble

NC State, St. Joseph's, Dayton, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Central Florida

Projections for 3/5/12

From now until Selection Sunday I will be releasing daily bracket projections and bubble updates.


First Four Out:  Oregon, VCU, Seton Hall, Arizona

Next Four Out:  Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Middle Tennessee


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis

5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern

4 Florida State
13 Drexel

6 Notre Dame
11 Texas

3 Michigan
14 Davidson

7 Gonzaga
10 California

2 Missouri
15 Valparaiso


West (#4 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Memphis
9 Alabama

5 New Mexico
12 South Florida

4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada

6 Creighton
11 Washington

3 Georgetown
14 Akron

7 Iowa State
10 Harvard

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Long Island

8 Virginia
9 Purdue

5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State

4 Temple
13 Oral Roberts

6 Florida
11 West Virginia

3 Baylor
14 Montana

7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young

2 Ohio State
15 Denver


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State

8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati

5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State

4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)

6 St. Mary's
11 Connecticut

3 Marquette
14 Belmont

7 San Diego State
10 Southern Miss

2 Duke
15 Bucknell

Projections for 3/4/12

First Four Out:  Northwestern, Oregon, VCU, Seton Hall

Next Four Out:  Tennessee, NC State, Dayton, Central Florida


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Iowa State
9 California

5 UNLV
12 Long Beach State

4 Florida State
13 Xavier vs Mississippi State

6 St. Mary's
11 West Virginia

3 Marquette
14 Belmont

7 Murray State
10 Southern Miss

2 Ohio State
15 Bucknell


West (#4 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis

5 Wichita State
12 South Florida

4 Wisconsin
13 Drexel

6 New Mexico
11 Connecticut

3 Baylor
14 Nevada

7 Vanderbilt
10 Brigham Young

2 Michigan State
15 Davidson


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Long Island

8 Virginia
9 Purdue

5 Florida
12 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)

4 Temple
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Notre Dame
11 Washington

3 Michigan
14 Oral Roberts

7 Gonzaga
10 Harvard

2 Missouri
15 Montana


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State

8 Memphis
9 Alabama

5 Louisville
12 Arizona

4 Indiana
13 Iona

6 Creighton
11 Texas

3 Georgetown
14 Akron

7 San Diego State
10 Cincinnati

2 Duke
15 Valparaiso

Projections for 2/26/12

First Four Out:  Mississippi State, VCU, Oregon, South Florida

Next Four Out:  St. Joseph's, Central Florida, NC State, Tennessee


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Iowa State
9 Southern Miss

5 Wisconsin
12 Seton Hall vs Colorado State

4 Florida State
13 Drexel

6 Murray State
11 Texas

3 Marquette
14 Akron

7 New Mexico
10 Alabama

2 Ohio State
15 Bucknell


West (#4 Overall)

1 Duke
16 Texas-Arlington

8 California
9 Memphis

5 Indiana
12 West Virginia

4 UNLV
13 Oral Roberts

6 Creighton
11 Connecticut

3 Georgetown
14 Iona

7 St. Mary's
10 St. Louis

2 Kansas
15 Weber State


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Long Island

8 Purdue
9 Kansas State

5 Temple
12 Arizona

4 Florida
13 Miami (FL) vs Northwestern

6 Notre Dame
11 Long Beach State

3 Michigan
14 Belmont

7 San Diego State
10 Brigham Young

2 Missouri
15 Davidson


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 Michigan State
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State

8 Virginia
9 Washington

5 Louisville
12 Xavier

4 Wichita State
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Gonzaga
11 Cincinnati

3 Baylor
14 Nevada

7 Vanderbilt
10 Harvard

2 North Carolina
15 Valparaiso

Projections for 2/24/12

First Four Out:  Northwestern, VCU, NC State, Oregon

Next Four Out:  South Florida, Central Florida, LSU, Massachusetts


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Kansas State
9 Purdue

5 New Mexico
12 Arizona

4 Georgetown
13 Xavier vs Miami (FL)

6 Murray State
11 Long Beach State

3 Baylor
14 Nevada

7 Virginia
10 Cincinnati

2 Ohio State
15 Davidson


West (#4 Overall)

1 Duke
16 Texas-Arlington

8 California
9 St. Louis

5 Notre Dame
12 Texas

4 UNLV
13 Oral Roberts

6 Indiana
11 West Virginia

3 Florida
14 Iona

7 Gonzaga
10 Connecticut

2 Kansas
15 Weber State


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Long Island

8 Iowa State
9 Memphis

5 Wisconsin
12 Middle Tennessee

4 Temple
13 Mississippi State vs Colorado State

6 Louisville
11 Alabama

3 Michigan
14 Akron

7 Creighton
10 Brigham Young

2 North Carolina
15 Bucknell


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 Michigan State
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State

8 San Diego State
9 Harvard

5 Wichita State
12 Seton Hall

4 Florida State
13 Drexel

6 St. Mary's
11 Washington

3 Marquette
14 Belmont

7 Vanderbilt
10 Southern Miss

2 Missouri
15 Valparaiso

Projections for 2/20/12

First Four Out:  NC State, VCU, South Florida, Central Florida

Next Four Out:  Oregon, Colorado State, Minnesota, Colorado


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Iowa State
9 Southern Miss

5 Indiana
12 Long Beach State

4 Florida State
13 Xavier vs Arizona

6 Wichita State
11 Mississippi State

3 Georgetown
14 Drexel

7 St. Mary's
10 West Virginia

2 Ohio State
15 Davidson


West (#4 Overall)

1 Michigan State
16 Texas-Arlington

8 California
9 Kansas State

5 Louisville
12 Texas

4 New Mexico
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Creighton
11 Miami (FL)

3 Marquette
14 Akron

7 Vanderbilt
10 Brigham Young

2 Kansas
15 Weber State


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Long Island

8 St. Louis
9 Purdue

5 UNLV
12 Alabama vs Northwestern

4 Baylor
13 Oral Roberts

6 Murray State
11 Cincinnati

3 Michigan
14 Nevada

7 Gonzaga
10 Connecticut

2 North Carolina
15 Valparaiso


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 Missouri
16 Vermont vs Savannah State

8 Virginia
9 Harvard

5 Temple
12 Seton Hall

4 Wisconsin
13 Iona

6 Notre Dame
11 Washington

3 Florida
14 Belmont

7 San Diego State
10 Memphis

2 Duke
15 Bucknell

February 16 Bubble Update

Locks (27 teams comprising 18 at-large bids)

North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Temple, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Creighton, Wichita State


Should Be In, but Still Some Work to Do (11 teams comprising 8 at-large bids)

Virginia, Connecticut, Purdue, Iowa State, Texas, California, Mississippi State, St. Louis, Murray State, Southern Miss, Memphis


Projected Auto-bid Winners That Would be on the At-Large Bubble

Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee, Harvard, Oral Roberts, Nevada, Iona


Bubble (14 teams for 11 bids)

NC State, Miami (FL), Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Kansas State, Arizona, Washington, Alabama, Xavier, Brigham Young


Teams on the Outside that Could Move Into the Field

South Florida, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Colorado, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Massachusetts, Dayton, St. Joseph's, Wyoming, Colorado State, Central Florida, VCU, Drexel

Projections for 2/12/12

Unfortunately, I have to go out of town tomorrow, so I am posting my projections a day early.

A few notes on the bracket:

With the recent suspensions, Alabama is once again the biggest enigma of the season.  Until the players are re-inserted into the lineup I have to project the Tide as if they are playing the rest of the regular season without them.

Miami was an 11 and Seton Hall a 12 on my s-curve, but I swapped their seeds for bracketing purposes.

As always, this is a projection of what the bracket will be on Selection Sunday, not what it would be as of today.  Every team's future schedule has been taken into account.

First Four Out:  Alabama, Washington, Minnesota, Colorado State

Next Four Out:  Oregon, Arkansas, Massachusetts, South Florida


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Long Island vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Murray State
9 California

5 Temple
12 Miami (FL)

4 Marquette
13 Northwestern vs Xavier

6 Wichita State
11 Harvard

3 Baylor
14 Davidson

7 Florida State
10 West Virginia

2 Michigan State
15 Weber State


West (#4 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Iowa State
9 Connecticut

5 Michigan
12 Arizona

4 Louisville
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Gonzaga
11 Seton Hall

3 UNLV
14 Akron

7 Mississippi State
10 Texas

2 Duke
15 Valparaiso


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Vanderbilt
9 Memphis

5 Virginia
12 Long Beach State

4 San Diego State
13 Oral Roberts

6 Notre Dame
11 Brigham Young

3 Wisconsin
14 Nevada

7 Creighton
10 Illinois

2 Kansas
15 Loyola-Maryland


South (#3 Overall)

1 Missouri
16 Norfolk State vs Stony Brook

8 Southern Miss
9 St. Louis

5 St. Mary's
12 Cincinnati vs NC State

4 Indiana
13 VCU

6 Florida
11 Kansas State

3 Georgetown
14 Belmont

7 New Mexico
10 Purdue

2 North Carolina
15 Bucknell

Projections for 2/6/12

First Four Out:  Minnesota, Colorado State, Seton Hall, Miami (FL)

Next Four Out:  Arkansas, Wyoming, Marshall, Pittsburgh


Midwest (#1 overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Long Island vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Illinois
9 Wichita State

5 St. Mary's
12 Cincinnati

4 Michigan
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Florida State
11 Memphis

3 Kansas
14 Oral Roberts

7 Temple
10 Washington

2 Georgetown
15 Davidson


West (#4 Overall)

1 Missouri
16 Norfolk State vs Stony Brook

8 Connecticut
9 Alabama

5 Indiana
12 Long Beach State

4 San Diego State
13 Cleveland State

6 Louisville
11 California

3 Michigan State
14 VCU

7 Kansas State
10 St. Louis

2 North Carolina
15 Bucknell


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Southern Miss
9 New Mexico

5 Creighton
12 NC State

4 Wisconsin
13 Arizona vs Brigham Young

6 Murray State
11 Texas

3 Florida
14 Nevada

7 West Virginia
10 Harvard

2 Duke
15 Weber State


South (#3 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Vanderbilt
9 Iowa State

5 Virginia
12 Northwestern vs Xavier

4 Marquette
13 Iona

6 Mississippi State
11 Purdue

3 UNLV
14 Akron

7 Gonzaga
10 Notre Dame

2 Baylor
15 Belmont

Projections for 1/30/12

First Four Out:  Washington, Brigham Young, Central Florida, Ole Miss

Next Four Out:  Massachusetts, Arkansas, VCU, Oklahoma


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Long Island vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Illinois
9 Wichita State

5 San Diego State
12 NC State

4 Georgetown
13 Nevada

6 Murray State
11 Cincinnati

3 Michigan State
14 Oral Roberts

7 Gonzaga
10 Harvard

2 Baylor
15 Davidson


West (#4 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Stony Brook

8 Temple
9 Iowa State

5 St. Mary's
12 Memphis

4 Wisconsin
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Mississippi State
11 Notre Dame

3 UNLV
14 Cleveland State

7 Connecticut
10 California

2 Missouri
15 Belmont


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Vanderbilt
9 St. Louis

5 Indiana
12 Seton Hall vs Colorado State

4 Virginia
13 Iona

6 Louisville
11 Texas

3 Florida
14 Akron

7 Florida State
10 Purdue

2 Kansas
15 Weber State


South (#3 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 UNC Asheville

8 New Mexico
9 Alabama

5 West Virginia
12 Long Beach State

4 Creighton
13 Minnesota vs Dayton

6 Michigan
11 Xavier

3 Marquette
14 George Mason

7 Kansas State
10 Southern Miss

2 Duke
15 Bucknell

Projections for 1/23/12

First Four Out:  Marshall, Minnesota, Arizona, Brigham Young

Next Four Out:  Arkansas, Northern Iowa, Ole Miss, Notre Dame


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Illinois
9 Seton Hall

5 Virginia
12 Temple

4 Kansas State
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Murray State
11 NC State

3 Michigan State
14 Cleveland State

7 Cincinnati
10 New Mexico

2 Baylor
15 Davidson


West (#4 Overall)

1 Missouri
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Wichita State
9 California

5 Indiana
12 Harvard

4 Marquette
13 Long Beach State

6 Louisville
11 Southern Miss

3 UNLV
14 Akron

7 Vanderbilt
10 St. Louis

2 North Carolina
15 George Mason


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Norfolk State vs Stony Brook

8 Gonzaga
9 Dayton

5 Creighton
12 Texas vs Wyoming

4 Wisconsin
13 Iona

6 Michigan
11 Central Florida

3 Florida
14 Belmont

7 Connecticut
10 Iowa State

2 Duke
15 Bucknell


South (#3 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 Long Island

8 Alabama
9 Florida State

5 West Virginia
12 Stanford vs Memphis

4 San Diego State
13 Oral Roberts

6 Mississippi State
11 Xavier

3 Georgetown
14 Nevada

7 St. Mary's
10 Purdue

2 Kansas
15 Weber State

Projections for 1/9/11

First Four Out:  Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, St. Joseph's, Northern Iowa

Next Four Out:  Central Florida, Arkansas, Northwestern, Oregon


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 UNC-Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Illinois
9 Temple

5 West Virginia
12 Iowa State vs Marshall

4 Virginia
13 Iona

6 New Mexico
11 Cincinnati

3 Missouri
14 Akron

7 California
10 St. Mary's

2 Michigan State
15 Davidson


West (#4 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 Lamar

8 St. Louis
9 Creighton

5 Gonzaga
12 Harvard

4 Louisville
13 Cleveland State

6 Alabama
11 NC State

3 UNLV
14 Oral Roberts

7 Purdue
10 Memphis

2 Baylor
15 Weber State


East

1 Syracuse
16 Long Island

8 Murray State
9 Stanford

5 Florida
12 Arizona vs Brigham Young

4 Kansas State
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Marquette
11 Texas

3 Indiana
14 George Mason

7 Vanderbilt
10 Dayton

2 Duke
15 Nevada


South (#3 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Stony Brook

8 Wichita State
9 Seton Hall

5 Connecticut
12 Southern Miss

4 Michigan
13 Long Beach State

6 Wisconsin
11 Xavier

3 Kansas
14 Belmont

7 Mississippi State
10 San Diego State

2 Georgetown
15 Bucknell

Projections for 1/2/12

First Four Out:  Florida State, Oklahoma, St. Joseph's, Brigham Young

Next Four Out:  Marshall, Missouri State, Washington, Texas A&M

Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Norfolk State

8 Xavier
9 Memphis

5 Marquette
12 Minnesota vs Southern Miss

4 Kansas
13 Belmont

6 Alabama
11 Cincinnati

3 Michigan State
14 Long Beach State

7 Creighton
10 Illinois

2 Georgetown
15 Lehigh


West (#4 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 Weber State

8 Arizona
9 Murray State

5 Kansas State
12 NC State vs Dayton

4 UNLV
13 VCU

6 Michigan
11 Temple

3 Louisville
14 Oral Roberts

7 Vanderbilt
10 Harvard

2 Duke
15 Wagner


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Coastal Carolina

8 St. Louis
9 Stanford

5 Gonzaga
12 Virginia Tech

4 Florida
13 Iona

6 Virginia
11 Pittsburgh

3 Indiana
14 Middle Tennessee

7 West Virginia
10 San Diego State

2 Missouri
15 Nevada


South (#3 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Lamar vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Texas
9 New Mexico

5 Mississippi State
12 Seton Hall

4 Wisconsin
13 Ohio

6 California
11 Wichita State

3 Connecticut
14 Butler

7 Purdue
10 St. Mary's

2 Baylor
15 Davidson