Projections for 12/29/08

Last Four In: Missouri, Arizona, LSU, Stanford

Last Four Out: California, Cincinnati, Southern Cal, Creighton

Next Four Out: Washington, Oklahoma State, Boston College, Evansville


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Hampton

8 Davidson
9 Illinois

5 Louisville
12 Stanford

4 Baylor
13 Portland State

6 Xavier
11 Kentucky

3 Syracuse
14 George Mason

7 Michigan
10 Florida State

2 Texas
15 Cornell


West (#4 Overall)

1 Oklahoma
16 American

8 Brigham Young
9 Minnesota

5 Villanova
12 Illinois State

4 Clemson
13 Miami (OH)

6 Ohio State
11 Missouri

3 UCLA
14 Stephen F. Austin

7 Florida
10 St. Mary's

2 Georgetown
15 East Tennessee State


East (#2 Overall)

1 Connecticut
16 Play-in Game

8 Kansas
9 Maryland

5 Arizona State
12 Utah State

4 Tennessee
13 Western Kentucky

6 Marquette
11 UNLV

3 Michigan State
14 Virginia Military

7 West Virginia
10 Dayton

2 Wake Forest
15 North Dakota State


South (#3 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 Austin Peay

8 Miami (FL)
9 Texas A&M

5 Gonzaga
12 LSU

4 Purdue
13 Siena

6 Memphis
11 Arizona

3 Notre Dame
14 Pacific

7 Butler
10 Wisconsin

2 Duke
15 Vermont


Play-in Game: Quinnipiac vs. Prairie View A&M

Projections for 12/22/08

Last Four In: Kentucky, Arizona, California, Cincinnati

Last Four Out: Southern Cal, LSU, Creighton, Stanford

Next Four Out: Temple, UAB, Arkansas, Washington State


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Hampton

8 Dayton
9 Brigham Young

5 Louisville
12 Illinois State

4 Baylor
13 Miami (OH)

6 Memphis
11 Arizona

3 Michigan State
14 Pacific

7 Florida
10 Missouri

2 Georgetown
15 Vermont


West (#4 Overall)

1 Oklahoma
16 Austin Peay

8 Miami (FL)
9 Minnesota

5 Syracuse
12 George Mason

4 Xavier
13 Utah State

6 Marquette
11 Florida State

3 UCLA
14 Stephen F. Austin

7 Wisconsin
10 West Virginia

2 Gonzaga
15 East Tennessee State


East (#2 Overall)

1 Connecticut
16 Play-in Game

8 Texas A&M
9 Davidson

5 Clemson
12 California

4 Ohio State
13 Western Kentucky

6 Villanova
11 Kentucky

3 Wake Forest
14 Cornell

7 Michigan
10 UNLV

2 Texas
15 VMI


South (#3 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 North Dakota State

8 St. Mary's
9 Maryland

5 Tennessee
12 Cincinnati

4 Purdue
13 Siena

6 Arizona State
11 Butler

3 Notre Dame
14 Portland State

7 Kansas
10 Illinois

2 Duke
15 American


Play-in Game: Quinnipiac vs. Prairie View A&M

Projections for 12/15/08

Last Four In: UNLV, Florida State, Southern Cal, Seton Hall

Last Four Out: California, Minnesota, Creighton, Temple

Next Four Out: Washington State, UAB, Rhode Island, Northwestern


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Hampton

8 Kansas
9 LSU

5 Purdue
12 Illinois State

4 Notre Dame
13 Siena

6 Arizona State
11 UNLV

3 Louisville
14 Portland State

7 Miami (FL)
10 Texas A&M

2 Xavier
15 Vermont


West (#4 Overall)

1 Oklahoma
16 East Tennessee State

8 Michigan
9 Dayton

5 Marquette
12 Miami (OH)

4 UCLA
13 Utah State

6 Clemson
11 Kentucky

3 Georgetown
14 Stephen F. Austin

7 Wisconsin
10 West Virginia

2 Gonzaga
15 Pacific


East (#2 Overall)

1 Connecticut
16 Play-in Game

8 Florida
9 St. Mary's

5 Ohio State
12 Florida State

4 Baylor
13 George Mason

6 Memphis
11 Southern Cal

3 Syracuse
14 Liberty

7 Brigham Young
10 Missouri

2 Duke
15 Austin Peay


South (#3 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 North Dakota State

8 Arizona
9 Maryland

5 Michigan State
12 Seton Hall

4 Tennessee
13 Western Kentucky

6 Villanova
11 Butler

3 Wake Forest
14 Cornell

7 Davidson
10 Illinois

2 Texas
15 American

Play-in Game: Quinnipiac vs. Prairie View A&M

Projections for 12/8/08

Last Four In: Arizona, Florida State, Southern Cal, Cincinnati

Last Four Out: Minnesota, Washington State, Seton Hall, UAB

Next Four Out: California, Rhode Island, Mississippi State, Creighton

Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Murray State

8 West Virginia
9 Brigham Young

5 Purdue
12 Illinois State

4 Notre Dame
13 VCU

6 Marquette
11 Florida State

3 Xavier
14 Cornell

7 Davidson
10 Texas A&M

2 Tennessee
15 Portland State

West (#4 Overall)

1 Gonzaga
16 North Dakota State

8 Florida
9 Michigan

5 Georgetown
12 Missouri

4 UCLA
13 Siena

6 Villanova
11 Southern Cal

3 Wake Forest
14 American

7 Dayton
10 Illinois

2 Oklahoma
15 Long Beach State

East (#2 Overall)

1 Connecticut
16 East Tennessee State

8 Miami (FL)
9 LSU

5 Memphis
12 Western Kentucky

4 Baylor
13 Utah State

6 Kansas
11 Butler

3 Louisville
14 Liberty

7 Wisconsin
10 Arizona

2 Duke
15 Hampton

South (#3 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 Play-in Game

8 St. Mary's
9 Maryland

5 Arizona State
12 Cincinnati

4 Michigan State
13 Miami (OH)

6 Ohio State
11 Kentucky

3 Syracuse
14 Vermont

7 Clemson
10 UNLV

2 Texas
15 Stephen F. Austin

Play-in Game: Wagner vs Prairie View A&M

First 2009 Projections

Since most teams have only played around 5 games, I had to use a combination of game results and preseason projections to make this bracket.

Last Four In: Washington State, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Rhode Island

Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Temple, California, Washington


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Play-in Game

8 Ohio State
9 West Virginia

5 Kansas
12 Butler

4 Xavier
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Florida
11 UAB

3 Purdue
14 American

7 Southern California
10 Creighton

2 Louisville
15 Vermont

West (#4 Overall)

1 Gonzaga
16 Portland State

8 Kentucky
9 UNLV

5 Georgetown
12 Washington State

4 Wake Forest
13 Utah State

6 Syracuse
11 Kent State

3 Texas
14 Belmont

7 Miami (FL)
10 Illinois

2 UCLA
15 CSU-Fullerton

East (#2 Overall)

1 Connecticut
16 Hampton

8 Clemson
9 St. Mary's

5 Villanova
12 Michigan

4 Tennessee
13 Rhode Island

6 Arizona State
11 Virginia Tech

3 Michigan State
14 Liberty

7 Marquette
10 Brigham Young

2 Oklahoma
15 Stephen F. Austin

South (#3 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 Mount St. Mary's

8 Dayton
9 LSU

5 Baylor
12 Siena

4 Memphis
13 VCU

6 Davidson
11 Arizona

3 Notre Dame
14 Cornell

7 Wisconsin
10 Texas A&M

2 Duke
15 Murray State

Play-in Game: North Dakota State vs. Prairie View A&M

Predictions for 08-09

Regular Season Predictions:

Conference Champions:

ACC- North Carolina
Big East- Pittsburgh
Big 10- Purdue
Big 12- Texas
Pac 10- UCLA
SEC- Tennessee
MWC- Brigham Young
WCC- Gonzaga
A-10- Xavier
MVC- Creighton

National POY- Tyler Hansbrough, UNC

Tournament Predictions:

Cinderella- St. Mary's

Sleeper Teams- Wake Forest, Villanova, Arizona State, Virginia Tech

Early Exits- Notre Dame, Duke, Marquette

Final Four- North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Gonzaga

National Champions- Pittsburgh Panthers
MVP- Levance Fields

Teams to watch for in 2008-09

Well, here's to wrapping up another season of college hoops. On the whole, this was a below-average season and tournament, mainly because there was a huge talent gap between the top few teams and everyone else. Next year should be much more balanced, with many schools returning all their pieces while the top schools lose key players.

Improved Teams

Virginia Tech- the Hokies had 6 freshman playing key minutes this season. They lose Deron Washington, but should still be a top 25 team next season.

Wake Forest- the Demon Deacons had 0 seniors on this year's roster and will also add a recruiting class full of talented big men. They could be one of the most dangerous teams in the country come tournament time next year.

Pittsburgh- led by Fields, Young, and Blair, this team should one of the favorites next year in the Big East

Notre Dame- the Irish only lose one starter (Rob Kurz). They should be a top 10 team next season.

Villanova- they had 0 seniors on the roster this year. The Wildcats should be back in the NCAAs next year, and this time won't have to sweat the bubble to make it.

Syracuse- their entire core group will be back next season. While I don't think they'll be as good as these other big east schools, they'll be good enough to get back to the NCAAs.

Purdue- Considering the fact that they were a 6 seed this year with a starting lineup composed of 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore, they will be a top 10, possibly top 5 team.

Oklahoma- they return every starter except Longar Longar, and add another talented recruiting class. Jeff Capel is building a strong program in Norman.

Oklahoma State- Led by James Anderson, Byron Eaton, and Terrel Harris, the pokes should once again be a big factor in the Big 12. If they land a bigtime coach with the money they're willing to spend, that's an added bonus.

Creighton- with all but two players returning next year, the Bluejays should once again be on top of the Valley.

Arizona State- the Sun Devils showed flashes of brilliance this year, even with 0 seniors on the roster. With the Lopez twins leaving for the NBA, this could be the 2nd best team in the Pac-10 next season.

Florida- the Gators had 0 seniors this year and add a top 5 recruiting class. They will be once again contending for the SEC next season.

Gonzaga- the Zags return everyone except Pendergraph and Kuso next season, and will once again be a top 15 team.

Final Predictions

Well, it looks like I have to update my bracket with Georgia's victory in the SEC championship. Georgia replaces Oregon in the field, while Arkansas drops from a 6 seed to an 8 seed.

East Regional (#1 overall seed)

Raleigh, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Mississippi Valley State

8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M

Denver, CO
5 Vanderbilt
12 St. Joseph's

4 Drake
13 George Mason

Birmingham, AL
6 Butler
11 Arizona

3 Georgetown
14 Boise State

Omaha, NE
7 Gonzaga
10 Kent State

2 Wisconsin
15 UM-Baltimore County

Midwest Regional (#4 overall seed)

Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 American

8 St. Mary's
9 Davidson

Tampa, FL
5 Clemson
12 Georgia

4 Pittsburgh
13 Oral Roberts

Washington, D.C.
6 Washington State
11 Temple

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

Birmingham, AL
7 Brigham Young
10 Baylor

2 Tennessee
15 Austin Peay

South Regional (#2 overall seed)

Little Rock, AR
1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Mississippi State
9 Kansas State

Tampa, FL
5 Purdue
12 Illinois State

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

Anaheim, CA
6 Indiana
11 Villanova

3 Stanford
14 San Diego

Raleigh, NC
7 Oklahoma
10 South Alabama

2 Duke
15 Winthrop

West Regional (#3 overall seed)

Anaheim, CA
1 UCLA
16 UT-Arlington

8 Arkansas
9 UNLV

Denver, CO
5 Michigan State
12 Western Kentucky

4 Notre Dame
13 CSU-Fullerton

Washington, D.C.
6 Marquette
11 Kentucky

3 Xavier
14 Siena

Little Rock, AR
7 Southern Cal
10 Miami (FL)

2 Texas
15 Portland State

Selection Sunday Predictions

It's here folks! Selection Sunday has finally arrived. My goal this year is to outdo Joe Lunardi, and I feel pretty confident after seeing some of his latest predictions.

For this projection I've assumed that tomorrow's winners will be North Carolina, Kansas, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and UT-Arlington. Unless either an upset occurs or I change my mind on an at-large team, this will be my final prediction.

East Regional (#1 overall seed)

Raleigh, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Mount St. Mary's

8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M

Denver, CO
5 Vanderbilt
12 St. Joseph's

4 Drake
13 George Mason

Birmingham, AL
6 Arkansas
11 Arizona

3 Georgetown
14 Boise State

Omaha, NE
7 Brigham Young
10 Kent State

2 Wisconsin
15 UM-Baltimore County

Midwest Regional (#4 overall seed)

Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 American

8 St. Mary's
9 Davidson

Tampa, FL
5 Clemson
12 Oregon

4 Pittsburgh
13 Oral Roberts

Washington, D.C.
6 Washington State
11 Temple

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

Birmingham, AL
7 Indiana
10 Baylor

2 Tennessee
15 Austin Peay

South Regional (#2 overall seed)

Little Rock, AR
1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Mississippi State
9 Kansas State

Tampa, FL
5 Purdue
12 Illinois State

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

Anaheim, CA
6 Butler
11 Villanova

3 Stanford
14 San Diego

Raleigh, NC
7 Oklahoma
10 South Alabama

2 Duke
15 Winthrop

West Regional (#3 overall seed)

Anaheim, CA
1 UCLA
16 UT-Arlington

8 Gonzaga
9 UNLV

Denver, CO
5 Notre Dame
12 Western Kentucky

4 Michigan State
13 CSU-Fullerton

Washington, D.C.
6 Marquette
11 Kentucky

3 Xavier
14 Siena

Little Rock, AR
7 Southern Cal
10 Miami (FL)

2 Texas
15 Portland State

Play-in Game: Mississippi Valley State vs. Coppin State

Bubble Analysis: 3/16/08

Well, Selection Sunday is officially here. I think there are 7 bids still available, and that number could shrink to 6 or 5 if Illinois or Georgia win tomorrow.

13 teams are still in the hunt for the 7 remaining at-large bids. Interestingly enough, all of those teams have been eliminated from their conference tournaments, which means it is highly unlikely that I will shift my rankings of these teams.
As of right now, I believe the committee will rank the 13 bubble teams in this order:
1. Arizona
2. St. Joseph's
3. Baylor
4. Kentucky
5. Illinois State
--------------------
6. Villanova
7. Oregon
--------------------
8. Virginia Tech
9. Dayton
10. Arizona State
11. Ohio State
12. Massachusetts
13. VCU

Projections for 3/15/08

On the eve of Selection Sunday, a few teams decided to step up and make a statement for an at-large bid. Temple now gets the auto-bid from the A-10, St. Joseph's moves into the field after their victory over Xavier, and Virginia Tech moves into the last four out with their W against Miami. Also, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, and Arkansas all picked up quality wins to boost their seeding.

Last Four In: Arizona, St. Joseph's, Villanova, Arizona State

Last Four Out: Virginia Tech, Dayton, Oregon, UMass

Still alive: VCU, Ohio State

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State

8 Arkansas
9 Texas A&M

5 Washington State
12 St. Joseph's

4 Notre Dame
13 Oral Roberts

6 Indiana
11 Temple

3 Stanford
14 CSU-Fullerton

7 Oklahoma
10 Kentucky

2 Georgetown
15 UM-Baltimore County

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Kansas State
9 Miami (FL)

5 Southern Cal
12 Western Kentucky

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

6 Pittsburgh
11 Arizona State

3 Xavier
14 Siena

7 Clemson
10 UNLV

2 Texas
15 New Mexico State

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 St. Mary's
9 West Virginia

5 Vanderbilt
12 Illinois State

4 Michigan State
13 Belmont

6 Marquette
11 Baylor

3 Wisconsin
14 San Diego

7 Mississippi State
10 Davidson

2 Duke
15 Winthrop

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Mount St. Mary's

8 Gonzaga
9 Kent State

5 Purdue
12 Villanova

4 Drake
13 George Mason

6 Butler
11 Arizona

3 Louisville
14 Austin Peay

7 Brigham Young
10 South Alabama

2 Kansas
15 Portland State

Play-in Game: Texas-Arlington vs. Mississippi Valley State

Projections for 3/14/08

Do any bubble teams want to play in the NCAA tournament? Amazingly, out of all the bubble teams in action today, Texas A&M and St. Joseph's were the only teams that won their games. Texas A&M and South Alabama moved into lock status today, while Baylor fell back onto the bubble and Maryland, UAB, Florida, Ole Miss, and New Mexico all played their way into the NIT.

Last Four In: Arizona, Massachusetts, Dayton, Villanova

Last Four Out: Arizona State, St. Joseph's, Oregon, VCU

Still alive: Virginia Tech, Temple, Florida State

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State

8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M

5 Vanderbilt
12 Arizona

4 Drake
13 George Mason

6 Southern Cal
11 South Alabama

3 Xavier
14 Siena

7 Oklahoma
10 UNLV

2 Georgetown
15 UM-Baltimore County

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Portland State

8 Gonzaga
9 Miami (FL)

5 Notre Dame
12 Dayton

4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Indiana
11 Davidson

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Brigham Young
10 Kentucky

2 Texas
15 San Diego

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 St. Mary's
9 Arkansas

5 Michigan State
12 Massachusetts

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

6 Pittsburgh
11 Ohio State

3 Stanford
14 Utah State

7 Mississippi State
10 Baylor

2 Duke
15 Austin Peay

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Kansas State
9 Kent State

5 Washington State
12 Western Kentucky

4 Marquette
13 Oral Roberts

6 Butler
11 Villanova

3 Wisconsin
14 UC-Santa Barbara

7 Clemson
10 Illinois State

2 Kansas
15 Winthrop

Play-in Game: Mount St. Mary's vs. Alabama State

Bubble Update: 3/13/08

Since no new teams entered the field yesterday as at-larges, I thought it would be a good time to share my bubble list and tell what each team has to do to get an NCAA bid.

There are currently 8 bids still up for grabs (this number could shrink if a conference like the A-10 or C-USA has a surprise champ). After Syracuse's loss today, I believe there are 19 teams still alive for these last 8 spots.

Maryland: needs to reach ACC final
Virginia Tech: could be in with a win over Miami. May need to reach ACC final to be safe.
Ohio State: needs to beat Michigan State
Texas A&M: needs to beat Iowa State
Villanova: needs to beat Georgetown
Arizona: might be in already, needs to beat Stanford to be safe
Arizona State: needs to beat USC
Oregon: needs to beat WSU
Ole Miss: needs to beat Georgia and Kentucky, may need to reach SEC final
Florida: needs to beat Alabama and Mississippi State, may need to reach SEC final
UMass: probably already in, needs to beat Charlotte to be safe
Dayton: needs to beat Xavier
St. Joseph's: needs to reach A-10 final
Temple: needs to reach A-10 final
South Alabama: should be in, but can't be a lock until enough bubble teams choke
Illinois State: in for now, could be in trouble if a bunch of teams play their way in
New Mexico: needs to reach MWC final
VCU: needs most of these teams to choke
UAB: needs to reach C-USA final, probably needs auto bid

Projections for 3/12/08

Alot will happen the next 3 days to help clear up the bubble picture. But for now, here are your current projections. I currently have all 3 Pac-1o bubble teams in, but unless they all make noise in the conference tournament I expect at least one of them to be left out.

Last Four In: Arizona, Arizona State, Ohio State, Oregon

Last Four Out: Syracuse, New Mexico, VCU, Dayton

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State

8 Baylor
9 West Virginia

5 Vanderbilt
12 Ohio State

4 Drake
13 George Mason

6 Brigham Young
11 Arizona

3 Wisconsin
14 Utah State

7 Oklahoma
10 Massachusetts

2 Georgetown
15 UM-Baltimore County

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Portland State

8 Kent State
9 Kentucky

5 Butler
12 Western Kentucky

4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Washington State
11 Illinois State

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Gonzaga
10 Miami (FL)

2 Texas
15 Winthrop

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Kansas State
9 Arkansas

5 Michigan State
12 Oregon

4 Notre Dame
13 Oral Roberts

6 Marquette
11 Texas A&M

3 Stanford
14 San Diego

7 Mississippi State
10 UNLV

2 Duke
15 Austin Peay

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Clemson
9 St. Mary's

5 Indiana
12 Arizona State

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

6 Southern Cal
11 Davidson

3 Xavier
14 Siena

7 Pittsburgh
10 South Alabama

2 Kansas
15 UC-Santa Barbara

Play-in Game: Sacred Heart vs Alabama State

Others Considered: UAB, Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's, Ole Miss, Villanova, Florida, Maryland, Temple

Projections for 3/10/08

It's getting down to crunch time now. Beginning on Wednesday, I will have daily updates on my bracket projections.

With the exception of Stephen F. Austin in the Southland, I have projected the highest remaining seed to win each conference tournament. All teams in italics have earned automatic bids to the tournament.

Last Four In: Ohio State, Syracuse, Oregon, New Mexico

Last Four Out: VCU, Dayton, UAB, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, St. Joseph's, Ole Miss, Villanova

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State

8 Baylor
9 West Virginia

5 Vanderbilt
12 Ohio State

4 Drake
13 New Mexico

6 Gonzaga
11 Arizona

3 Wisconsin
14 Oral Roberts

7 Oklahoma
10 UMass

2 Georgetown
15 UM-Baltimore County

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Portland State

8 St. Mary's
9 Kentucky

5 Butler
12 Syracuse

4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Washington State
11 Illinois State

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Brigham Young
10 Miami (FL)

2 Texas
15 Winthrop

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Kansas State
9 South Alabama

5 Michigan State
12 Oregon

4 Notre Dame
13 George Mason

6 Marquette
11 Texas A&M

3 Stanford
14 Utah State

7 Mississippi State
10 UNLV

2 Duke
15 Austin Peay

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Clemson
9 Kent State

5 Indiana
12 Arizona State

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

6 Southern Cal
11 Davidson

3 Xavier
14 Siena

7 Pittsburgh
10 Arkansas

2 Kansas
15 UC-Santa Barbara

Play-in Game: Sacred Heart vs Alabama State

Others considered: Florida, Maryland, Temple

Projections for 3/4/08

Last Four In: Florida, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, New Mexico

Last Four Out: Maryland, Villanova, Syracuse, Dayton

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Miami (FL)
9 Southern Cal

5 Marquette
12 Florida

4 Purdue
13 Oral Roberts

6 Clemson
11 VCU

3 Stanford
14 Boise State

7 Pittsburgh
10 Texas A&M

2 Xavier
15 UM-Baltimore County

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Portland State

8 Kansas State
9 South Alabama

5 Drake
12 Kentucky

4 Indiana
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Gonzaga
11 Massachusetts

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Brigham Young
10 Kent State

2 Texas
15 CSU-Northridge

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Robert Morris

8 Oklahoma
9 UNLV

5 Vanderbilt
12 Davidson

4 UConn
13 Virginia Tech

6 Washington State
11 West Virginia

3 Wisconsin
14 Siena

7 St. Mary's
10 Arkansas

2 Kansas
15 Austin Peay

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Arizona
9 Baylor

5 Michigan State
12 UAB

4 Notre Dame
13 New Mexico

6 Butler
11 Illinois State

3 Georgetown
14 Cornell

7 Mississippi State
10 Arizona State

2 Duke
15 UNC-Asheville

Projections for 2/25/08

There has been alot of movement since Friday. Several teams really shot themselves in the foot over the weekend, allowing some teams to unexpectedly move up by simply taking care of business. Please keep in mind that some teams still have chances to enhance their profiles, while others do not.

Last Four In: New Mexico, Syracuse, Illinois State, Florida

Last Four Out: Wake Forest, Houston, Kentucky, Ohio State

Next Four Out: UAB, Maryland, Oregon, Virginia Tech

Charlotte Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Texas A&M
9 West Virginia

5 Drake
12 Arizona State

4 Purdue
13 VCU

6 Kansas State
11 Stephen F. Austin

3 UConn
14 Winthrop

7 Southern Cal
10 UNLV

2 Xavier
15 Siena

Phoenix Regional

1 Texas
16 Portland State

8 Brigham Young
9 Miami (FL)

5 Marquette
12 Florida

4 Wisconsin
13 Oral Roberts

6 Butler
11 St. Joseph's

3 Georgetown
14 Cornell

7 St. Mary's
10 South Alabama

2 UCLA
15 CS-Northridge

Houston Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Clemson
9 Baylor

5 Vanderbilt
12 Massachusetts

4 Notre Dame
13 Illinois State

6 Michigan State
11 Villanova

3 Stanford
14 New Mexico State

7 Pittsburgh
10 Kent State

2 Duke
15 Austin Peay

Detroit Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Robert Morris

8 Mississippi State
9 Oklahoma

5 Washington State
12 Syracuse

4 Indiana
13 Davidson

6 Arizona
11 New Mexico

3 Louisville
14 UM-Baltimore County

7 Gonzaga
10 Arkansas

2 Kansas
15 Belmont

Play-in Game: Morgan State vs Alabama State

Other teams considered: California, Southern Illinois, Rhode Island, Dayton, Western Kentucky, Seton Hall, Texas Tech

Saturday's Winners and Losers

There was alot of action Saturday throughout the country. Some teams stepped up and got huge wins, and some teams took some damaging losses. Here's my summary of Saturday's winners and losers.

Winners

• Villanova- picked up a marquee win against UConn that really bolsters their at-large hopes.
• Miami (FL)- won their 4th game in a row against Maryland to improve to 6-6 in ACC play. They are getting close to locking up an NCAA bid.
• Kentucky- picked up another quality win against Arkansas to improve to 9-3 in the SEC. They are now officially on the radar for an at-large bid.
• Mississippi State- won in OT at South Carolina. The Bulldogs move to lock status now that their SEC record is 9-3.
• Drake- the victory at Butler gave them the one thing that was missing from their profile: a signature win.
• Arizona State- won at Washington to get back to .500 in Pac 10 play.
• Baylor- got a huge win against Kansas State to stabilize their position in the NCAA field.
• Tennessee- picked up the mother-of-all signature wins against Memphis. They will probably be the #1 overall seed on Monday's projections.
• Arizona- won at Washington State to get back to 7-7 in the Pac 10. Their computer numbers are very strong, but their remaining schedule is too difficult to make the Wildcats a lock.
• Kent State- possibly the biggest winner of all today. Their win at St. Mary's might have catapulted them in the NCAAs regardless of how they do in the MAC tournament.

Losers

• Maryland- the loss to Miami puts the Terps squarely on the bubble. They probably need 2 of their last 3 now in order to have a chance at an at-large.
• Arkansas- losing to Kentucky keeps the Razorbacks out of the lock category. They are still in good shape though, as they probably only need to finish 2-2 to get a bid.
• Kansas- their loss at Oklahoma State might have ruined any chance the Jayhawks had at a 1 seed.
• Oregon- they let one slip away at UCLA. Unless the run the table and then win their 1st game in the Pac 10 tournament, they can kiss an at-large bid goodbye.
• Texas A&M- losing at home to Nebraska is bad for the Aggies. Losing a 3rd straight game to fall to 6-6 in Big 12 play is worse.
• Butler- they're still a lock for the tournament, but their seed is going to take a hit after blowing their last chance for a marquee win.
• Mississippi- the blowout loss to LSU ends any chances the Rebels had at getting an at-large.
• Kansas State- the Wildcats have now lost 3 of their last 4. With games against Texas and Kansas looming this week, that could very well become 5 of their last 6.
• Brigham Young- the loss at San Diego State ends their 9 game winning streak. The Cougars are still in the driver's seat for the MWC title, but their seed just took a hit.
• St. Mary's- the Gaels should still be safe for a bid, but the loss to Kent State puts added pressure on them to perform well against Gonzaga and in the WCC tournament.

Projections for 2/22/08

Last Four In: Ohio State, Syracuse, Florida, Arizona State

Last Four Out: Villanova, New Mexico, St. Joseph's, Oregon

Detroit Regional:

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Arizona
9 Oklahoma

5 Vanderbilt
12 Syracuse

4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Kansas State
11 Ohio State

3 Connecticut
14 Winthrop

7 Clemson
10 South Alabama

2 Xavier
15 Niagara

Houston Regional:

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Gonzaga
9 Maryland

5 Washington State
12 Kent State

4 Notre Dame
13 VCU

6 Michigan State
11 Florida

3 Stanford
14 Boise State

7 Pittsburgh
10 Baylor

2 Duke
15 Austin Peay

Charlotte Regional:

1 North Carolina
16 Robert Morris

8 Southern California
9 Mississippi State

5 Marquette
12 Rhode Island

4 Wisconsin
13 Oral Roberts

6 Drake
11 Massachusetts

3 Georgetown
14 Cornell

7 Brigham Young
10 Miami (FL)

2 Texas
15 Belmont

Phoenix Regional:

1 Kansas
16 Portland State

8 Arkansas
9 West Virginia

5 Butler
12 Arizona State

4 Indiana
13 Davidson

6 St. Mary's
11 Wake Forest

3 Louisville
14 UM-Baltimore County

7 Texas A&M
10 UNLV

2 UCLA
15 CSU-Northridge

Bubble Analysis: 2/22/08

Sorry I haven't posted in awhile, but between school and work I have been swamped lately. Here's a recap of the major games that occurred this week.


If it wasn't bad enough before, the A-10 just became an even bigger mess this week. La Salle pulled off consecutive victories over St. Joseph's and Dayton, while UMass won at Rhode Island. Once thought to be a sure thing for the tournament, the Rams have now lost 3 in a row to fall to 6-6 in conference play. This league is too good to just get one bid, but Xavier is the only team asserting themselves as an NCAA quality team.


Miami got a huge win against Duke last night. After stumbling to 2-6 in ACC play, they have now won 3 in a row and are now in good shape to grab a tournament bid. Maryland still appears to be on the right side of the bubble, but losing at home to Virginia Tech has made this conference much more muddled.


After losing 5 in a row, Villanova has rebounded nicely. They have won 3 of their last 4 and dismantled West Virginia yesterday. Syracuse let a golden opportunity get away against Louisville, and has an incredibly difficult last 4 games (@Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, @Seton Hall, Marquette). If they do any worse than 2-2 they will have to win 3 games in the Big East tournament to have a chance.


After racing out to a 4-0 record in Big 12 play, Baylor has now lost 5 of their last 6. The OT loss against Oklahoma Tuesday night may come back to haunt them. Their last 5 games are winnable, but anything less than 4-1 will leave the Bears sweating on Selection Sunday. The Sooners, meanwhile, appear to be getting close to locking up an NCAA bid. They just need to beat the teams they should beat in order to feel good about their tournament chances.


Ohio State could be in big trouble after losing at Michigan. The 8-5 Big 10 record and #45 RPI put them squarely on the bubble, but their remaining schedule is absolutely brutal (Wisconsin, @Indiana, @Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan State). They have to win at least 2 or else they will probably be left out come Selection Sunday.


Oregon lost at USC tonight to fall to 6-8 in Pac 10 play. Next up for the Ducks: a trip to Pauley Pavilion to play the Bruins. Since they didn't do much in non-conference play, it's hard to imagine anything less than 9-9 getting Oregon into the tournament, which pretty much makes that game a must-win. California is sitting at 6-7 and has a chance to play their way in, but their remaining games (@Stanford, Washington State, Washington, @USC, @UCLA) make their odds of getting in very slim. Arizona State appears to be in the best position of the three. They are definitely not lacking in the big wins department (beat Xavier, swept Arizona, beat Stanford), but will that be enough to overcome their terrible computer numbers (RPI 75, Non-conf SOS 309)?


In the SEC, Arkansas crushed LSU to get to 7-4 in conference play. Their remaining schedule is very manageable, so they look to be in good shape to make the Big Dance. Ole Miss beat Mississippi State to end a 4-game conference losing streak. While their 4-7 SEC record is enough to place them outside the bubble for now, they are definitely capable of getting back to 8-8, which would put them in a position to make a run in the SEC tournament and grab a bid. Kentucky is now 8-3 in conference play, but they are just entering the roughest part of the schedule (Arkansas, Ole Miss, @Tennessee, @South Carolina, Florida). The way things are setting up, the Florida-Kentucky game at the end of the season could be an NCAA play-in game.


South Alabama picked up a huge win tonight @Western Kentucky. As long as the Jaguars take care of business and win their last 3 games, they should be in great shape to get an at-large bid if they fall in the Sun Belt Tournament. After letting another chance at a quality win slip away, Western Kentucky more than likely needs the automatic bid to get into the tournament.


Houston's at-large hopes took a huge blow when they lost at UAB this week. Houston has a talented team and no bad losses, but a lousy 2-6 record against the RPI top 100 may be too much to overcome.


While they are in no danger of missing the tournament, Drake's seeding is taking a big hit with recent losses to Southern Illinois and Bradley. Unless someone beats Drake in the conference tournament, the MVC appears to be a one-bid league. In spite of Wright State's current 10-game winning streak, the same goes for Butler and the Horizon League.


Brigham Young won their ninth game in a row this week to move into lock status for the NCAA tournament. UNLV still appears to be on the inside of the bubble, but does not have much room for error. New Mexico has quietly surged to a 21-6 record and a top 50 RPI, but an at-large bid seems unlikely at this point because they lack a marquee win.


Kent State keeps on rolling, now at 22-5 overall and 11-2 in the MAC. They have an enormous opportunity this weekend at St. Mary's. If they pull off the upset it's hard to see the Golden Flashes being left out of the tournament.


And finally, while they remain a long shot for an at-large, Stephen F. Austin manhandled Sam Houston St. Thursday to improve to 22-3. The RPI is a respectable 48 and they own a road win over Oklahoma, but would the committee be willing to let a 2nd Southland team in if they won out to the conference finals and then lost a nail biter to Sam Houston?

Projections for 2/18/08

As Selection Sunday draws nearer, I will update my projections more frequently. For the next couple weeks I will update every Monday and Friday.

Last Four In: Dayton, Arizona State, Wake Forest, Oregon

Last Four Out: South Alabama, Houston, Ohio State, Florida

Detroit Regional:

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 BYU
9 Maryland

5 Vanderbilt
12 Oregon

4 Louisville
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Indiana
11 Miami (FL)

3 Stanford
14 CSU-Northridge

7 Pittsburgh
10 Baylor

2 Xavier
15 Rider

Houston Regional:

1 Kansas
16 Portland State

8 Arkansas
9 West Virginia

5 Arizona
12 Wake Forest

4 Wisconsin
13 Davidson

6 St. Mary's
11 Western Kentucky

3 Georgetown
14 Winthrop

7 Texas A&M
10 St. Joseph's

2 North Carolina
15 UM-Baltimore County

Charlotte Regional:

1 Duke
16 Robert Morris

8 Marquette
9 Mississippi State

5 Washington State
12 Kent State

4 Butler
13 Oral Roberts

6 Michigan State
11 Arizona State

3 UConn
14 Cornell

7 Gonzaga
10 Rhode Island

2 Texas
15 Belmont

Phoenix Regional:

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Southern Cal
9 Oklahoma

5 Drake
12 Dayton

4 Notre Dame
13 VCU

6 Kansas State
11 Syracuse

3 Purdue
14 Boise State

7 Clemson
10 UNLV

2 UCLA
15 Austin Peay

Play-in Game: Morgan State vs Alabama State

Projections for 2/14/08

Happy Valentine's Day. I'm doing my projections a day early because I have 2 exams on Friday.

Last Four In: Houston, Mississippi State, Syracuse, Florida

Last Four Out: NC State, Arizona State, Dayton, Mississippi


Detroit, MI

1 Memphis
16 Play-in game

8 Baylor
9 Maryland

5 Pittsburgh
12 Davidson

4 Wisconsin
13 Florida

6 St. Mary's
11 St. Joseph's

3 Stanford
14 Utah State

7 Arkansas
10 West Virginia

2 Texas
15 Belmont

Charlotte, NC

1 Duke
16 Morgan State

8 Gonzaga
9 Ohio State

5 Arizona
12 South Alabama

4 Notre Dame
13 VCU

6 Texas A&M
11 Oregon

3 Xavier
14 UNC-Asheville

7 Indiana
10 UNLV

2 Georgetown
15 UM-Baltimore County

Phoenix, AZ

1 Kansas
16 Portland State

8 USC
9 Rhode Island

5 Drake
12 Houston

4 Louisville
13 Oral Roberts

6 Vanderbilt
11 Syracuse

3 Michigan State
14 Rider

7 Clemson
10 Oklahoma

2 UCLA
15 Pacific

Houston, TX

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Marquette
9 Brigham Young

5 Butler
12 Kent State

4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Washington State
11 Mississippi State

3 Connecticut
14 Cornell

7 Kansas State
10 Massachusetts

2 North Carolina
15 Austin Peay

Play-in game: Sacred Heart vs Alabama State

Games to Watch: 2/13/08

Notre Dame @ Connecticut (Big East): Two of the hottest teams in the country meet up tonight in Hartford. Both teams are rapidly moving up the seed lines, and the winner will put yet another feather in their cap. Prediction: UConn 76, Notre Dame 70

Maryland @ Duke (ACC): Maryland has quietly moved to 6-3 in ACC play and put themselves into at-large bid consideration. Duke has a stranglehold on the ACC and is now playing for the #1 seed in the Charlotte region. Prediction: Duke 83, Maryland 72

Duquesne @ Dayton (A-10): Dayton lost to George Washington Saturday, a huge blow to their at-large hopes. A loss at home to Duquesne might once an for all end their chances, as a 4-6 A-10 record could be too much to overcome. Prediction: Duquesne 85, Dayton 80

Wisconsin @ Indiana (Big 10): Indiana finally stepped up and picked up a quality win at Ohio State. Wisconsin won the first meeting between these squads fairly easily, but not many teams can go to the Kohl Center and leave with a W. It will be interesting to see if the recent violation reports from the NCAA will affect Indiana's play tonight. Prediction: Wisconsin 62, Indiana 58

Xavier @ Charlotte (A-10): Charlotte may have to run the table if they want a shot at an at-large at this point. There are just too many teams ahead of them in the picking order from the A-10. Xavier is a lock and is now playing to make the pod system. Prediction: Xavier 75, Charlotte 68

Arkansas @ Tennessee (SEC): The Vols are in great shape to win the SEC East after Kentucky's disaster at Vanderbilt. Arkansas is now 6-2 in SEC play after their win over Ole Miss and will move into lock status if they can pull the upset tonight. Prediction: Tennessee 74, Arkansas 68

Mississippi @ Alabama (SEC): Ole Miss has fallen to 3-5 in SEC play and will be in big trouble if they lose this game. Alabama hasn't been very good this season but is capable of winning this game. Prediction: Alabama 78, Ole Miss 73

Drake @ Southern Illinois (MVC): At 22-1 and 13-0 in the MVC, Drake is having an unbelievable year. Keno Davis has to be the frontrunner for national coach of the year. Southern Illinois is having a very disappointing season but is still incredbily tough at home. Prediction: Southern Illinois 58, Drake 54

Kansas State @ Texas Tech (Big 12): Thanks to Texas' upset of Kansas on Monday K-State is once again on top of the Big 12. Texas Tech is probably NIT bound, but they have been a formidable opponent at home. This is a good barometer game for the Wildcats. Prediction: Kansas State 68, Texas Tech 60

Houston @ Memphis (C-USA): Memphis is undoubtedly the #1 overall seed at this point. Houston is 18-4 and has a very talented team, but if they don't win a game against Memphis they could easily be snubbed on Selection Sunday. Prediction: Memphis 84, Houston 71

Games to Watch: 2/10/08

St. Joseph's @ Xavier (A-10): First place in the Atlantic 10 is on the line tomorrow in Cincinnati. St. Joseph's has been hot as of late, but you have to like Xavier's chances playing at home. Prediction: Xavier 73, St. Joseph's 63

Indiana @ Ohio State (Big 10): No offense to the Hoosiers, but right now their high ranking is completely unjustified. They are 0-3 vs the RPI top 50. All 19 of their wins have come against sub-50 teams. DJ White and Eric Gordon are a formidable inside-out combo, but until they beat a decent team I will remain skeptical of all their hype. Ohio State, meanwhile, has fallen back on the bubble after their loss at Iowa and could really use this game to regain their footing. Prediction: Ohio State 65, Indiana 58

Massachusetts @ Temple (A-10): Temple is only 11-10, but that is largely a byproduct of their brutal schedule. They have been a formidable opponent at times this year, taking Duke to the wire and beating Xavier. UMass badly needs to win this game, but it will not be easy. Prediction: UMass 74, Temple 72

Arizona State @ Arizona (Pac 10): Arizona State was sitting pretty at 4-0 in the Pac-10 and 14-2 overall. They have lost 5 straight since then and have seen their RPI fall to the 90s. Arizona is in great shape despite a 14-7 record, thanks to their #1 SOS. Arizona has been up and down this year, but I like their chances of winning this one. Prediction: Arizona 72, Arizona State 60

Clemson @ North Carolina (ACC): These two teams went to overtime the last time they played. Clemson looked dominant in their 31 point win at Virginia on Thursday, but Ty Lawson will be back for this game. While it won't be easy, this is a chance for Clemson to end their embarrassing 52-game losing streak on the road against UNC. Prediction: North Carolina 85, Clemson 76
Edit: It is now being reported that Ty Lawson will not play today against Clemson. Losing Lawson is made much worse by the fact that backup PG Bobby Frasor is out for the rest of the season. New Prediction: Clemson 83, North Carolina 78

Games to Watch: 2/9/08

Marquette @ Notre Dame (Big East): Marquette is a solid tournament team for now, but they have been faltering lately. Notre Dame is on a tear at 8-2 in Big East play, and almost never loses at home. Prediction: Notre Dame 79, Marquette 67

Boston College @ Duke (ACC): Boston College has fallen way off the bubble and probably needs to go 6-2 in their last 8 to have a chance at a bid. Duke is riding a 10 game winning streak, and they should be able to make it 11. Prediction: Duke 86, Boston College 68

Texas A&M @ Missouri (Big-12): Texas A&M stumbled a bit early in conference play, but now appears to have righted the ship. Missouri has already beaten Texas and Kansas State at home this year, so this is by no means an easy W for the Aggies. Prediction: Texas A&M 74, Missouri 70

Miami (FL) @ Virginia Tech (ACC): Miami played very well in the non-conference slate but has come out flat in ACC play. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has played themselves into NCAA consideration and will have a strong case for a bid if they can get to 10 conference wins. Prediction: Virginia Tech 69, Miami 61

Georgia @ Florida (SEC): Florida badly needs a win to stop the bleeding, and Georgia is just the team to do it against. Prediction: Florida 75, Georgia 63

Texas @ Iowa State (Big 12): Trap game for the Longhorns. Iowa State is a very difficult team to play on the road, and it would not shock me if the Cyclones pulled the upset. Prediction: Texas 67, Iowa State 64

USC @ Washington State (Pac-10): This is suddenly a huge game for the Cougars, who have lost 4 of their last 5. USC, on the other hand, has won 6 of their last 7. This game will tell alot about where these teams stand at this point in the season. Prediction: Washington State 65, USC 62

Georgia Tech @ UConn: If Georgia Tech wants to salvage what little hope they have of making the dance, then they must win this game. UConn is one of the hottest teams in the country and show no signs of slowing down anytime soon. Prediction: UConn 77, Georgia Tech 68

Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (SEC): This is a big chance for Vanderbilt to stabilize their position by picking up a road win in SEC play. Prediction: Vanderbilt 67, South Carolina 62

Mississippi @ Arkansas (SEC): Ole Miss is reeling and badly needs a win to right the ship, while Arkansas has vastly improved their position after blowout wins vs. Mississippi State and Florida. Prediction: Arkansas 71, Ole Miss 64

Oregon @ California (Pac 10): Cal is barely in right now, and must win if this game if they are to remain in my bracket. Oregon is on the outside looking in right now, but is capable of playing themselves onto the bubble. Prediction: Oregon 68, California 67

Baylor @ Kansas (Big 12): This is one of the few games tomorrow in which both teams are solid NCAA squads. This is a matchup nightmare for the guard-oriented Bears, though, and the fact that Kansas is at home doesn't help much either. Prediction: Kansas 85, Baylor 65

Georgetown @ Louisville (Big East): Gamenight will be in Louisville to broadcast this game. Both of these teams are locks to make the dance, so this will be a big win for either team. Louisville is finally healthy again and should be dangerous for the rest of the year. Prediction: Louisville 68, Georgetown 63

Purdue @ Wisconsin: Purdue still has terrible computer numbers, but the 9-1 Big 10 record is more than enough to offset that. Wisconsin's only Big 10 loss came to the Boilermakers a few weeks ago, and they will try to return the favor tonight. Prediction: Wisconsin 66, Purdue 58

Projections for 2/8/08

Last Four In: George Mason, NC State, UMass, California

Last Four Out: Syracuse, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech

#1 seeds:
Memphis, Duke, Kansas, UCLA

#2 seeds:
North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgetown, Xavier

#3 seeds:
Drake, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Texas

#4 seeds:
UConn, Stanford, Butler, Pittsburgh

#5 seeds:
St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Louisville

#6 seeds:
Baylor, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Washington State

#7 seeds:
Clemson, Marquette, Arizona, Arkansas

#8 seeds:
Mississippi, Indiana, Gonzaga, Rhode Island

#9 seeds:
USC, Purdue, Oklahoma, Florida

#10 seeds:
Dayton, Ohio State, BYU, UNLV

#11 seeds:
West Virginia, St. Joseph's, South Alabama, George Mason

#12 seeds:
NC State, Kent State, UMass, California

#13 seeds:
VCU, Oral Roberts, Davidson, Stephen F. Austin

#14 seeds:
Utah State, CSU-Northridge, UNC-Asheville, Cornell

#15 seeds:
Rider, Austin Peay, Belmont, Lafayette

#16 seeds:
UM-Baltimore County, Morgan State, Portland State, Sacred Heart (play-in game), Alabama State (play-in game)

Games to Watch: 2/6/08

Maryland @ Boston College (ACC): Both of these teams are currently outside the bubble and have alot of work to do to make the field of 65. Maryland is red hot right now, though, and winning this game on the road would be a big boost for them. Prediction: Maryland 82, Boston College 73

Charlotte @ Dayton (A-10): At 3-4 in the A-10, Dayton is reeling right now and needs to hang in there until Chris Wright comes back from injury. Charlotte has been up and down this year, so this is a hard game to predict. Prediction: Dayton 65, Charlotte 61

Texas @ Oklahoma (Big 12): Texas is a lock to make the dance and is now playing to make the pod system. Oklahoma is in good shape, but could definitely use another quality win to improve their position. This should be a good, close game. Prediction: Oklahoma 74, Texas 72

UConn @ Syracuse (Big East): UConn is rolling right now. They've won 5 in a row against quality competition. Syracuse is right on the bubble and is beginning a difficult stretch of games that will make or break their season. Prediction: UConn 67, Syracuse 59

Vanderbilt @ Georgia (SEC): This is a must-win for Vandy. A loss here against a sub-100 RPI Georgia team would drop the Commodores to 3-5 in the SEC. With their remaining schedule it would be tough to come back from that hole and get a bid. Prediction: Vanderbilt 74, Georgia 64

Notre Dame @ Seton Hall (Big East): Notre Dame is rolling right now but tends to struggle away from home. This is a big chance for Seton Hall to pick up a quality win and put themselves in position to grab a bid. Prediction: Seton Hall 78, Notre Dame 71

Wisconsin @ Iowa (Big 10): Michigan State and Ohio State have both gone to Iowa City this year and lost. Could Iowa pull off another stunner? I think Wisconsin matches up much better with Iowa than those two teams and wins this one handily. Prediction: Wisconsin 62, Iowa 46

And the big one: Duke @ North Carolina (ACC): Both of these teams are fighting for 1 seeds, and the two matchups between these squads will be huge in determining their rankings on selection Sunday. When at full strength, I don't think Duke is on the same level as UNC, Kansas, Memphis, or UCLA, but North Carolina will be without Ty Lawson tonight. That is a huge blow for the Tarheels. Prediction: Duke 92, North Carolina 87

BracketBusters schedule Released

The matchups for this years BracketBusters have been announced. This year's schedule is notably weaker than in previous years, but there are a few quality matchups, including Drake @ Butler, George Mason @ Ohio, and Kent State @ St. Mary's. Here is the full schedule:

Friday, February 22:
UC-Santa Barbara @ Utah State
Davidson @ Winthrop

Saturday, February 23:
VCU @ Akron
Siena @ Boise State
UW-Milwaukee @ Bradley
Drake @ Butler
Rider @ CSU-Northridge
Marist @ Cleveland State
George Mason @ Ohio
Creighton @ Oral Roberts
Kent State @ St. Mary's
Nevada @ Southern Illinois
Miami (OH) @ Valparaiso

Sunday, February 24:
Wright State @ Illinois State

Games to watch: 2/4/08

Congratulations to the New York Giants on their Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots. To my surprise, their defensive line did an incredible job rushing Tom Brady, and that ultimately proved to be the difference in the game.

It's Rivalry Week in college basketball, so let's take a look at Monday's big games:

Louisville @ Marquette (Big East): Both teams appear to be solid NCAA squads, so this is a chance for each to pick up another quality win. Marquette has won 14 in a row at home, and I don't think their streak will end tonight. Prediction: Marquette 74, Louisville 66

Villanova @ St. Joseph's: This is a Big Five game with huge bubble implications. Villanova is falling quickly and desperately needs this one to get back in the hunt for a bid. St. Joseph's is currently my last team in, and cannot afford many slipups if they want to remain in the dance. Prediction: St. Joseph's 68, Villanova 65

Missouri @ Kansas (Big 12): The first game between these teams was close. Missouri has the offensive weapons to hang with the Jayhawks for awhile, but I believe KU will eventually pull away. Prediction: Kansas 86, Missouri 72

Gonzaga @ St. Mary's (WCC): The two frontrunners clash in Moraga. The winner will take a giant step towards securing an NCAA bid. Prediction: St. Mary's 72, Gonzaga 67

Games to Watch: 2/3/08

Wake Forest @ NC State (ACC): This is a huge game for both squads. Wake Forest is 3-3 in conference and has beaten some decent teams, but they need to start winning away from home to make their case for a bid. NC State picked up some big wins in the non-conference schedule, but they cannot afford to lose another home game and drop in 2-5 in ACC play.

North Carolina @ Florida State (ACC): The Seminoles have lost 5 of their last 6 to fall to 2-5 in conference play. If they want any chance at an at-large bid they need a big time win, and UNC is the only marquee team left on the schedule. If they don't win this game, their at-large hopes are all but over.

Wisconsin @ Minnesota (Big 10): Minnesota has been doing just enough to remain on the bubble, and needs to make a move if they want to go dancing. They already blew their chances to pick up big wins against Indiana and Michigan State, so this is a make-or-break game for the Golden Gophers. Wisconsin is safely in the field and is mainly playing for seeding at this point.

Northwestern @ Indiana (Big 10): Yet another cupcake for Indiana to feast on. At this point Indiana is mostly a victim of their weak scheduling. They don't have any bad losses, but they don't have any quality wins either. We'll learn more about Indiana next week, but they should have no problems winning this one.

And of course, New England Patriots vs. New York Giants (Super Bowl XLII): You've all heard hours of pre-game analysis of this game by now, so I won't bother. Just suffice it to say I think New England wins big.
Score Prediction: New England 41, New York 17

Games to Watch: 2/2/08

Games are in order of tip-off time.

Kent State @ Toledo (MAC): If Kent State wants to remain in the discussion for an at-large bid, they need to take care of business and beat a sub-par Toledo team.

Maryland @ Georgia Tech (ACC): Both teams are 3-3 in conference and have been playing better as of late. They are on the outside looking in at the moment, though, so this is a must-win for both squads.

Marquette @ Cincinnati (Big East): Cincinnati is only 10-11, but at 5-4 in conference play is probably the most improved team in the country between November and now. Marquette is only 1-3 on the road and really needs to win games like this to improve their position and seeding.

Syracuse @ Villanova (Big East): Another critical matchup between 2 bubble teams. Villanova is fading quickly and really needs this game to stop the bleeding. Syracuse might have the toughest remaining schedule in the country, so they will have plenty of chances to prove their worthiness in the upcoming weeks.

Seton Hall @ Georgetown (Big East): Seton Hall has won 5 in a row to improve to 5-3 in the conference, and needs a high-quality win to secure their position in the field. Georgetown has been less than impressive lately, needing late game heroics to beat Syracuse and West Virginia, so I would not be surprised if this game is much closer than expected.

UTEP @ Memphis (C-USA): Memphis shouldn't have much trouble getting to 21-0.

Pittsburgh @ UConn (Big East): UConn's position is improving as rapidly as anyone in the nation. If they can pull off the victory against a strong Pitt team, their seed will continue to rise.

Kansas State @ Missouri (Big 12): Believe it or not, KSU is the only undefeated team in Big 12 play. This is definitely a trap game, though. After beating KU they need to avoid a letdown, or else they could find themselves in for a battle.

Baylor @ Texas (Big 12): Baylor showed its mettle in their 5OT win at Texas A&M. Can they pull another upset against the Longhorns? I don't like their chances, but stranger things happen all the time.

UMass @ St. Louis (A-10): If UMass wants to make the dance, then they need to take care of business on the road.

Dayton @ Rhode Island (A-10): This is a huge game for positioning in the A-10. The winner can feel much secure about their at-large bid prospects, while the loser will find themselves in a precarious position at 3-4 in conference. Dayton has been plagued with injuries the past few weeks, and the committee will take that into consideration come March.


Rutgers @ Louisville (Big East): Louisville should be fine as long as they keep winning games like this one.

Stanford @ Washington State (Pac-10): A huge game in Pullman. Second place in the Pac-10 is on the line. Both teams are safely in the dance for now, but this game could have a major impact on seeding.

Florida @ Arkansas (SEC): Florida is looking good to make the dance, and looks to continue their winning ways against a surging Arkansas team, who is coming off a 20 point win against Mississippi State.

Kansas @ Colorado (Big 12): Colorado is usually tough at home, but I don't see KU having many problems winning this game.

Purdue @ Illinois (Big 10): Purdue's computer numbers might be weak, but it's hard to knock a team that's 7-1 in the Big 10. They need to take care of business against a weak Illinois team and keep the momentum going.

Oklahoma @ Texas A&M (Big 12): Oklahoma could use another quality win away from home to improve their position, while the Aggies need to hold serve at home in order to remain a viable at-large candidate.

South Alabama @ UL-Monroe (Sun Belt): South Alabama can't afford many losses if they want to remain in the at-large discussion, and a loss to the Warhawks would be very damaging to their chances.

BYU @ Wyoming (Mountain West): BYU needs all the road wins they can get. While Wyoming is a tough place to play due to the elevation, this is the type of game an NCAA team should win.

Auburn @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Vanderbilt needs to right the ship in a hurry, or else they could find themselves on the bubble very soon.

South Carolina @ Ole Miss (SEC): Ole Miss just needs to win the games they should win, and they should be in good shape to make the tournament.

DePaul @ Notre Dame (Big East): A Notre Dame win here would improve them to 6-2 in conference play.

Ohio State @ Iowa (Big 10): Ohio State needs to be wary of this game. This is a trap game for the Buckeyes. If they lose this one they will fall right back onto the bubble.

Tennessee @ Mississippi State (SEC): Mississsippi State is my first team out right now. This is a chance for them to pick up a huge W and move themselves back into the bracket. Tennessee is fighting for potential 1 seed, and needs to continue winning to keep those hopes alive.

West Virginia @ Providence (Big East): Another matchup between two Big East bubble teams. Providence probably needs this one more than WVU, but the winner will improve their position dramatically while the loser will take a big hit to their chances.

La Salle @ Xavier (A-10): Xavier should have no problems improving to 18-4.

Gonzaga @ Santa Clara (WCC): Gonzaga needs to keep winning to stay in first in the WCC. A regular season crown should insure the Bulldogs of a bid.

Drake @ Indiana State (MVC): Drake has won 18 in a row, while Indiana State is 10-0 at home. Something has to give, and a Drake win will continue to establish their legitimacy.

Michigan State @ Penn State (Big 10): MSU already has one bad loss at Iowa. Another one would be very damaging to their seed.

Boston College @ Clemson (ACC): Clemson needs to win this one to maintain their solid position, while Boston College needs another big win to get back in the discussion.

Illinois State @ Missouri State (MVC): If Illinois State is an NCAA caliber team, then they need to win games like this against a struggling Missouri State squad.

Wichita State @ Creighton (MVC): Creighton is in big trouble after dropping another game to Drake, and needs to go on a winning streak if they want to have any chance at an at-large bid.

Arizona @ UCLA (Pac-10): Arizona has been play some terrific basketball since the return of Jerryd Bayless. Both teams look destined to make the pod system, and this is a chance for each team to add another high quality win to their resume.

New Mexico @ UNLV (Mountain West): UNLV and BYU are currently tied for 1st place in the MWC standings. The Runnin' Rebels need to win games like this if they want to stay in the race throughout the conference season.

Arizona State @ USC (Pac-10): Arizona State is in a freefall. They have lost 4 in a row, and desperately need a big win to stop the bleeding. Both teams sit at 4-4 in the conference standings, but USC is in much better shape with their quality wins and strong computer numbers.

Projections for 2/1/08

Last Four In:
Seton Hall, UMass, Syracuse, St. Joseph's

Last Four Out:
Mississippi St., George Mason, Arizona St., NC State

#1 seeds:
Memphis, Kansas, UNC, Duke

#2 seeds:
Tennessee, UCLA, Georgetown, Michigan St.

#3 seeds:
Texas, Washington St., Xavier, Drake

#4 seeds:
Arizona, Wisconsin, Butler, Pittsburgh

#5 seeds:
Stanford, Kansas St., St. Mary's, Ole Miss

#6 seeds:
Dayton, UConn, Marquette, Gonzaga

#7 seeds:
Vanderbilt, Indiana, USC, Oklahoma

#8 seeds:
Baylor, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas A&M

#9 seeds:
Rhode Island, Clemson, Louisville, Florida

#10 seeds:
Purdue, Arkansas, Miami (FL), West Virginia

#11 seeds:
Brigham Young, UNLV, Seton Hall, South Alabama

#12 seeds:
UMass, Syracuse, St. Joseph's, Kent State

#13 seeds:
VCU, Davidson, Sam Houston St., CSU-Northridge

#14 seeds:
Utah St., Oral Roberts, UNC-Asheville, Cornell

#15 seeds:
Austin Peay, Rider, UM-Baltimore County, Lafayette

#16 seeds:
Wagner, Jacksonville, Morgan St., Weber St. (play-in game),
Alabama St. (play-in game)