Midwest (#1 Overall)
Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Iowa State
9 Purdue
Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State
Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State
Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas
2 Duke
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Connecticut
Albuquerque, NM
5 Vanderbilt
12 Washington vs Drexel
4 Florida State
13 Belmont
Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier
3 Marquette
14 Davidson
Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Colorado State vs South Florida
4 Indiana
13 Ohio
Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Montana
Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh
South (#3 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama
Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Louisville
13 Colorado
Columbus, OH
6 San Diego State
11 Southern Miss
3 Michigan
14 St. Bonaventure
Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard
2 Missouri
15 Long Island
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Selection Sunday Bracket Predictions
For this bracket I have assumed that tomorrow's winners will be Xavier, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Michigan State. This is not my final bracket; I will post that during the Big 10 Championship.
South (#1 Overall)
Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Iowa State
9 Purdue
Albuquerque, NM
5 San Diego State
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State
Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State
Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas
2 Duke
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Connecticut
Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs Drexel
4 Florida State
13 Ohio
Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier
3 Marquette
14 Davidson
Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 South Florida vs NC State
Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Montana
Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh
Midwest (#3 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama
Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Colorado State
4 Louisville
13 Colorado
Columbus, OH
6 Vanderbilt
11 Southern Miss
3 Michigan
14 Belmont
Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard
2 Missouri
15 Long Island
South (#1 Overall)
Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Iowa State
9 Purdue
Albuquerque, NM
5 San Diego State
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State
Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State
Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas
2 Duke
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Connecticut
Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs Drexel
4 Florida State
13 Ohio
Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier
3 Marquette
14 Davidson
Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 South Florida vs NC State
Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Montana
Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh
Midwest (#3 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama
Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Colorado State
4 Louisville
13 Colorado
Columbus, OH
6 Vanderbilt
11 Southern Miss
3 Michigan
14 Belmont
Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard
2 Missouri
15 Long Island
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Bubble Rankings and Breakdown
With Xavier's win over St. Louis, they become the projected automatic bid from the A-10. Even with a loss in the finals, I believe Xavier is now safely in the field. That leaves 6 bids, with 8 teams (9 if Long Beach State loses tonight) still in the running.
Here's my ranking of the teams on the bubble from most likely to least likely to get in. I have drawn in the cutoff lines to show who gets knocked out if UC Santa Barbara and/or St. Bonaventure are able to win their conference tournaments.
West Virginia
Colorado State
South Florida
(Long Beach State)
Washington
------------------
Drexel
NC State
------------------
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
The teams I feel comfortable putting into the field are West Virginia and Colorado State. Both teams have less than 20 wins against D-1 schools, but there are too many positives on their resumes to think they'll miss the field with this weak bubble.
After that, things start to become real fuzzy. Out of the remaining teams, the one I feel best about is South Florida. While they have some ugly marks on their resume (6-6 OOC, 2-9 vs Top 50, 6-11 road/neutral), they're one of hte few bubble teams that actually played well down the stretch. They went 7-3 in their last 10 games, and both Top 50 wins have come within the last two weeks. Combine that with their 12-6 conference record and head-to-head win over Seton Hall, and I would be fairly surprised (but not shocked) if USF wasn't in the bracket tomorrow.
Another team that's nearly impossible to figure out is Washington. The Huskies have the worst computer profile of any team on this list, with an RPI of 70 and 0 Top 50 wins. Nevertheless, they did win the Pac 12 regular season title, and history has shown us the Selection Committee puts a great deal of value on conference titles. Time and time again, there have been bubble teams with nothing good on their resume except being the regular season champs of a top 10 league (i.e., UAB last year), and every single time those teams have made it into the field. I'm just not willing to bet against history, because Washington would the first team in the 64 team era to win a Top 10 conference and not make the NCAA field.
This might be picking with my heart more than my head, but I think it would be an absolute sham if NC State, Mississippi State, or Seton Hall, teams that had multiple chances to take care of business and didn't, got into the field, while a Drexel team that went 25-2 after doing poorly in November is relegated to the NIT. It might end up being the wrong decision, but I have to go with the Dragons over those teams.
That leaves the three aforementioned teams, NC State, Miss State, and Seton Hall, for the last spot. It's really splitting hairs at this point because they all have so many ugly spots on their resumes, but I've decided to go with NC State. The 1-8 record vs Top 50 with the 1 win being Texas is a huge eye sore, but unlike the other two the Wolfpack played well down the stretch and had a winning record away from home (9-6 road/neutral).
While there is, IMO, a definite gap between these squads and everyone else, there are numerous teams that cannot be ruled out as possible "shocker" inclusions tomorrow:
Iona, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Miami, Middle Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Marshall
I can't really make a compelling case for any of these teams to be in the field, but I can't rule any of them out either.
All in all, this is easily the most difficult year to predict the field since I started doing bracketology. My Selection Sunday bracket will be posted right after the conclusion of the WAC championship.
Here's my ranking of the teams on the bubble from most likely to least likely to get in. I have drawn in the cutoff lines to show who gets knocked out if UC Santa Barbara and/or St. Bonaventure are able to win their conference tournaments.
West Virginia
Colorado State
South Florida
(Long Beach State)
Washington
------------------
Drexel
NC State
------------------
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
The teams I feel comfortable putting into the field are West Virginia and Colorado State. Both teams have less than 20 wins against D-1 schools, but there are too many positives on their resumes to think they'll miss the field with this weak bubble.
After that, things start to become real fuzzy. Out of the remaining teams, the one I feel best about is South Florida. While they have some ugly marks on their resume (6-6 OOC, 2-9 vs Top 50, 6-11 road/neutral), they're one of hte few bubble teams that actually played well down the stretch. They went 7-3 in their last 10 games, and both Top 50 wins have come within the last two weeks. Combine that with their 12-6 conference record and head-to-head win over Seton Hall, and I would be fairly surprised (but not shocked) if USF wasn't in the bracket tomorrow.
Another team that's nearly impossible to figure out is Washington. The Huskies have the worst computer profile of any team on this list, with an RPI of 70 and 0 Top 50 wins. Nevertheless, they did win the Pac 12 regular season title, and history has shown us the Selection Committee puts a great deal of value on conference titles. Time and time again, there have been bubble teams with nothing good on their resume except being the regular season champs of a top 10 league (i.e., UAB last year), and every single time those teams have made it into the field. I'm just not willing to bet against history, because Washington would the first team in the 64 team era to win a Top 10 conference and not make the NCAA field.
This might be picking with my heart more than my head, but I think it would be an absolute sham if NC State, Mississippi State, or Seton Hall, teams that had multiple chances to take care of business and didn't, got into the field, while a Drexel team that went 25-2 after doing poorly in November is relegated to the NIT. It might end up being the wrong decision, but I have to go with the Dragons over those teams.
That leaves the three aforementioned teams, NC State, Miss State, and Seton Hall, for the last spot. It's really splitting hairs at this point because they all have so many ugly spots on their resumes, but I've decided to go with NC State. The 1-8 record vs Top 50 with the 1 win being Texas is a huge eye sore, but unlike the other two the Wolfpack played well down the stretch and had a winning record away from home (9-6 road/neutral).
While there is, IMO, a definite gap between these squads and everyone else, there are numerous teams that cannot be ruled out as possible "shocker" inclusions tomorrow:
Iona, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Miami, Middle Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Marshall
I can't really make a compelling case for any of these teams to be in the field, but I can't rule any of them out either.
All in all, this is easily the most difficult year to predict the field since I started doing bracketology. My Selection Sunday bracket will be posted right after the conclusion of the WAC championship.
March 10 Bubble Update
Here's a general snapshot of where things stand as of 4pm EST. A full ranking and breakdown of the bubble will be coming at the conclusion of tonight's games.
I believe Long Beach State would be right on the bubble with a loss tonight, which leaves 2 more potential bid stealers (UC Santa Barbara and St. Bonaventure).
Projected Automatic Bids (the auto bid in every remaining conference tournament goes to the highest remaining seed)
North Carolina, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Missouri, Arizona, Kentucky, San Diego State, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Creighton, Memphis, Harvard, Murray State, Loyola-Maryland, Vermont, Belmont, Montana, UNC Asheville, Long Beach State, VCU, Detroit, Akron, Norfolk State, Long Island, Lehigh, Davidson, Lamar, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Mississippi Valley State
At-large locks (24 at-large bids)
Duke, Florida State, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, UNLV, New Mexico, Temple, Gonzaga, Wichita State
Teams that look Safe (6 at-large bids)
Virginia, Connecticut, Texas, California, Southern Miss, Brigham Young
Bubble (10/11 teams for 7 bids)
NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Seton Hall, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss (with a win vs Vanderbilt), Colorado State, Xavier, Drexel, Iona
At-large Longshots
Northwestern, Miami (FL), Arizona/Colorado loser, Oregon, Tennessee, Ole Miss (with a loss vs Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Marshall
I believe Long Beach State would be right on the bubble with a loss tonight, which leaves 2 more potential bid stealers (UC Santa Barbara and St. Bonaventure).
Projected Automatic Bids (the auto bid in every remaining conference tournament goes to the highest remaining seed)
North Carolina, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Missouri, Arizona, Kentucky, San Diego State, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Creighton, Memphis, Harvard, Murray State, Loyola-Maryland, Vermont, Belmont, Montana, UNC Asheville, Long Beach State, VCU, Detroit, Akron, Norfolk State, Long Island, Lehigh, Davidson, Lamar, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Mississippi Valley State
At-large locks (24 at-large bids)
Duke, Florida State, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, UNLV, New Mexico, Temple, Gonzaga, Wichita State
Teams that look Safe (6 at-large bids)
Virginia, Connecticut, Texas, California, Southern Miss, Brigham Young
Bubble (10/11 teams for 7 bids)
NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Seton Hall, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss (with a win vs Vanderbilt), Colorado State, Xavier, Drexel, Iona
At-large Longshots
Northwestern, Miami (FL), Arizona/Colorado loser, Oregon, Tennessee, Ole Miss (with a loss vs Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Marshall
Projections for 3/10/12
Ole Miss is currently the last team in the field, but must beat Vanderbilt to hold onto their spot.
First Four Out: Mississippi State, NC State, Seton Hall, Northwestern
Next Four Out: Iona, Miami (FL), Tennessee, Oral Roberts
Still Alive: Oregon, Middle Tennessee, Nevada
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Gonzaga
9 Connecticut
5 San Diego State
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 Akron
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Michigan
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Missouri
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs South Florida
4 Florida State
13 South Dakota State
6 St. Mary's
11 Colorado State
3 Marquette
14 New Mexico State
7 Vanderbilt
10 Texas
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Iowa State
9 St. Louis
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Arizona
6 Creighton
11 Southern Miss
3 Wisconsin
14 Davidson
7 Notre Dame
10 Brigham Young
2 Duke
15 Lehigh
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Kansas State
9 Purdue
5 Wichita State
12 Xavier
4 Louisville
13 Drexel vs Ole Miss
6 Cincinnati
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Belmont
7 UNLV
10 Harvard
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
First Four Out: Mississippi State, NC State, Seton Hall, Northwestern
Next Four Out: Iona, Miami (FL), Tennessee, Oral Roberts
Still Alive: Oregon, Middle Tennessee, Nevada
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Gonzaga
9 Connecticut
5 San Diego State
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 Akron
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Michigan
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Missouri
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs South Florida
4 Florida State
13 South Dakota State
6 St. Mary's
11 Colorado State
3 Marquette
14 New Mexico State
7 Vanderbilt
10 Texas
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Iowa State
9 St. Louis
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Arizona
6 Creighton
11 Southern Miss
3 Wisconsin
14 Davidson
7 Notre Dame
10 Brigham Young
2 Duke
15 Lehigh
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Kansas State
9 Purdue
5 Wichita State
12 Xavier
4 Louisville
13 Drexel vs Ole Miss
6 Cincinnati
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Belmont
7 UNLV
10 Harvard
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
Friday, March 9, 2012
East Coast Bubble Update
Now that the bubble picture is becoming clearer, here's a summary of the bubble teams in the (predominately) East Coast conferences: the ACC, Big East, and Atlantic 10.
ACC
Despite Virginia losing today and having their RPI fall out of the Top 50, I think the signature win over Michigan keeps the Cavs in the field. Their seed will probably be 10 or worse, but with this weak bubble I don't see any way Virginia is left out of the field entirely.
NC State (22-11, 9-7 ACC)
Computer profile: RPI 48, SOS 31. 1-7 vs Top 50 (win over Texas). 6-9 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Georgia Tech, Clemson). 9-5 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The road/neutral record and sweep over Miami is nice, but other than that the resume is very barren. Fact is, NC State had multiple opportunities to pick up a signature win with home games against Syracuse, UNC, Florida State, and Indiana. It's really hard to justify giving an at-large bid to a team that went 0-4 in those home games. Obviously, if they beat UNC tomorrow this is all moot and they're in the field.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Miami (FL) (19-12, 9-7 ACC)
Computer profile: RPI 55, SOS 47. 2-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Duke, Florida State). 3-11 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Maryland). 6-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The Hurricanes have signature wins over Duke and FSU, but the rest of their profile is just awful. A team with a win percentage that bad vs the Top 100 getting an at-large is unheard of, plus they were swept by fellow bubble team NC State during the regular season. Unless the committee decides to make signature wins the most important factor for bubble teams, it's nearly impossible to see Miami getting in at this point.
NCAA chances: Slim
Big East
With Connecticut and Cincinnati having successful Big East tournaments, 3 teams are now left on the bubble.
West Virginia (19-13, 9-9 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 56, SOS 14. 5-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Akron, Kansas State, Marshall, Cincinnati), 9-11 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Kent State, @St. John's). 8-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The Mountaineers have really struggled down the stretch, only managing a 4-8 record in their last 12 games. The committee says last 12 games is no longer a factor, but we'll see how true that is on Sunday. If they're serious and it doesn't matter, then based on their overall profile, WVU will be in the field. If it does matter, then WVU will be in the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Good
South Florida (20-13, 12-6 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 54, SOS 26. 2-9 vs Top 50 (wins over Cincinnati and Louisville). 6-10 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Old Dominion, Penn State, Auburn). 6-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: USF blew a golden opportunity to lock up an NCAA bid last night against Notre Dame. The bad losses will not carry much weight because all 3 came before December 15. Just like West Virginia, the Bulls will be a good litmus test for what the committee finds important. If the committee puts more weight on conference play than non-con, USF will be in the field. If they don't, USF will be in the NIT. The committee did leave out an Alabama team last year that went 12-4 in the SEC, but that team had an RPI in the 80s, while South Florida's RPI is much more normal for a bubble team.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Seton Hall (20-12, 8-10 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 65, SOS 51. 3-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Connecticut, VCU). 7-9 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Villanova, Rutgers, Depaul).
Bottom line: Seton Hall has a signature win over Georgetown, but other than that their resume is very barren. Fact is, from top to bottom the Big East is not as good as it's been the last few years. An 8-10 record in this league will not hold much weight with the committee (UConn gets a pass because they played a tougher conference schedule and challenged themselves out of conference). At the end of the day, I think South Florida has an edge over Seton Hall thanks to their head-to-head win against the Pirates. Additionally, their bad losses all came in the last 2 months of the year. I know committee says when the wins and losses occur doesn't matter, but I have a hard time believing the human element won't come into play and dissuade them from putting the Pirates in the field.
NCAA chances: Below Average
Atlantic 10
Temple and St. Louis are locked into the tournament field, which leaves Xavier as the only bubble team in the league. Dayton might have had a chance to get in, but not now after losing in the A-10 quarters.
Xavier (20-11, 10-6 A-10)
Computer profile: RPI 57, SOS 47. 3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati). 7-10 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (Hawaii). 6-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: It's a tale of 2 seasons for Xavier. At the time of the Cincinnati brawl, the Musketeers had moved to 8-0 on the season with 3 top 50 wins. Since then, Xavier has gone 12-11, with no Top 50 wins and an embarassing loss against sub-200 Hawaii. Here's another case study for how much emphasis the committee puts on conference play. The Musketeers need to beat St. Louis tomorrow to feel good about their chances. If they don't, they'll be a very nervous group on Sunday.
NCAA chances: 50/50
ACC
Despite Virginia losing today and having their RPI fall out of the Top 50, I think the signature win over Michigan keeps the Cavs in the field. Their seed will probably be 10 or worse, but with this weak bubble I don't see any way Virginia is left out of the field entirely.
NC State (22-11, 9-7 ACC)
Computer profile: RPI 48, SOS 31. 1-7 vs Top 50 (win over Texas). 6-9 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Georgia Tech, Clemson). 9-5 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The road/neutral record and sweep over Miami is nice, but other than that the resume is very barren. Fact is, NC State had multiple opportunities to pick up a signature win with home games against Syracuse, UNC, Florida State, and Indiana. It's really hard to justify giving an at-large bid to a team that went 0-4 in those home games. Obviously, if they beat UNC tomorrow this is all moot and they're in the field.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Miami (FL) (19-12, 9-7 ACC)
Computer profile: RPI 55, SOS 47. 2-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Duke, Florida State). 3-11 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Maryland). 6-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The Hurricanes have signature wins over Duke and FSU, but the rest of their profile is just awful. A team with a win percentage that bad vs the Top 100 getting an at-large is unheard of, plus they were swept by fellow bubble team NC State during the regular season. Unless the committee decides to make signature wins the most important factor for bubble teams, it's nearly impossible to see Miami getting in at this point.
NCAA chances: Slim
Big East
With Connecticut and Cincinnati having successful Big East tournaments, 3 teams are now left on the bubble.
West Virginia (19-13, 9-9 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 56, SOS 14. 5-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Akron, Kansas State, Marshall, Cincinnati), 9-11 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Kent State, @St. John's). 8-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The Mountaineers have really struggled down the stretch, only managing a 4-8 record in their last 12 games. The committee says last 12 games is no longer a factor, but we'll see how true that is on Sunday. If they're serious and it doesn't matter, then based on their overall profile, WVU will be in the field. If it does matter, then WVU will be in the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Good
South Florida (20-13, 12-6 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 54, SOS 26. 2-9 vs Top 50 (wins over Cincinnati and Louisville). 6-10 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Old Dominion, Penn State, Auburn). 6-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: USF blew a golden opportunity to lock up an NCAA bid last night against Notre Dame. The bad losses will not carry much weight because all 3 came before December 15. Just like West Virginia, the Bulls will be a good litmus test for what the committee finds important. If the committee puts more weight on conference play than non-con, USF will be in the field. If they don't, USF will be in the NIT. The committee did leave out an Alabama team last year that went 12-4 in the SEC, but that team had an RPI in the 80s, while South Florida's RPI is much more normal for a bubble team.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Seton Hall (20-12, 8-10 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 65, SOS 51. 3-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Connecticut, VCU). 7-9 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Villanova, Rutgers, Depaul).
Bottom line: Seton Hall has a signature win over Georgetown, but other than that their resume is very barren. Fact is, from top to bottom the Big East is not as good as it's been the last few years. An 8-10 record in this league will not hold much weight with the committee (UConn gets a pass because they played a tougher conference schedule and challenged themselves out of conference). At the end of the day, I think South Florida has an edge over Seton Hall thanks to their head-to-head win against the Pirates. Additionally, their bad losses all came in the last 2 months of the year. I know committee says when the wins and losses occur doesn't matter, but I have a hard time believing the human element won't come into play and dissuade them from putting the Pirates in the field.
NCAA chances: Below Average
Atlantic 10
Temple and St. Louis are locked into the tournament field, which leaves Xavier as the only bubble team in the league. Dayton might have had a chance to get in, but not now after losing in the A-10 quarters.
Xavier (20-11, 10-6 A-10)
Computer profile: RPI 57, SOS 47. 3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati). 7-10 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (Hawaii). 6-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: It's a tale of 2 seasons for Xavier. At the time of the Cincinnati brawl, the Musketeers had moved to 8-0 on the season with 3 top 50 wins. Since then, Xavier has gone 12-11, with no Top 50 wins and an embarassing loss against sub-200 Hawaii. Here's another case study for how much emphasis the committee puts on conference play. The Musketeers need to beat St. Louis tomorrow to feel good about their chances. If they don't, they'll be a very nervous group on Sunday.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Thursday, March 8, 2012
March 8 Bubble Update
Today's post will focus on the bubble teams in the Big 10 and SEC.
Big 10
6 teams have locked up bids, making Northwestern the only team with work to do in the conference tournament.
Northwestern (18-12, 8-10 Big 10)
Computer profile: RPI 47, SOS 12. 1-10 vs Top 50 (win over Michigan State). 5-12 vs Top 100. no sub-100 losses. 7-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Northwestern does have solid RPI and SOS numbers, and the win over the Spartans might be the best win for any bubble team. The record against Top 50 and Top 100 are huge eye sores, however. Northwestern has to beat Minnesota and Michigan to feel safe on Selection Sunday. A loss against Michigan would leave them right near the cut line, while a loss against Minnesota would almost certainly send them to the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Fair
SEC
With the lack of bid stealers early on in Championship Week, I believe Alabama is now safe for a bid. That leaves 3 teams with work to do in the conference tournament.
Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 66, SOS 66. 2-4 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt and Alabama). 8-8 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Georgia, @Auburn). 6-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Miss State is one of the biggest enigmas this season. They looked like a lock 4 weeks ago, but a horrible 2 week stretch has really put a dent in their NCAA hopes. One thing working in Miss State's favor is their record against fellow bubble teams: the Bulldogs have gone 4-1 against Arizona, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. As with many other teams, Miss State needs 2 wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt to secure their spot in the NCAA field. Anything less and they'll have to sweat it out on Sunday.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Tennessee (18-13, 10-6 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 76, SOS 31. 4-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Florida x2, Vanderbilt, Connecticut). 7-9 vs Top 100. 4 sub-100 losses (@Oakland, Austin Peay, @Charleston, @Georgia). 3-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Clearly, if this was just about computer profiles, Tennessee would be out. But the fact is, most of those bad losses came early in the season, and Tennessee has been a completely different team since Stokes was cleared to play. The fact is, with him in the lineup, Tennessee was able to tie Florida and Vanderbilt for 2nd place in the SEC and go 3-1 against those 2 teams. The Vols are going to be a great barometer for how much emphasis the committee puts on how teams play early in the season and how teams play with incomplete rosters.
IMO, Tennessee has to make the finals to have a realistic chance at an at-large.
NCAA chances: Below average
Ole Miss (18-12, 8-8 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 59, SOS 39. 1-6 vs Top 50 (win over Alabama). 6-11 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Auburn). 6-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Despite being virtually invisible for the last month of the season, Ole Miss has quietly worked themselves back onto the bubble. In the end, I think the Rebels' lack of signature wins will doom them to the NIT. If they can make the SEC finals, though, they'll certainly be in the running for one of the last spots in the field.
NCAA chances: Slim
Big 10
6 teams have locked up bids, making Northwestern the only team with work to do in the conference tournament.
Northwestern (18-12, 8-10 Big 10)
Computer profile: RPI 47, SOS 12. 1-10 vs Top 50 (win over Michigan State). 5-12 vs Top 100. no sub-100 losses. 7-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Northwestern does have solid RPI and SOS numbers, and the win over the Spartans might be the best win for any bubble team. The record against Top 50 and Top 100 are huge eye sores, however. Northwestern has to beat Minnesota and Michigan to feel safe on Selection Sunday. A loss against Michigan would leave them right near the cut line, while a loss against Minnesota would almost certainly send them to the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Fair
SEC
With the lack of bid stealers early on in Championship Week, I believe Alabama is now safe for a bid. That leaves 3 teams with work to do in the conference tournament.
Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 66, SOS 66. 2-4 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt and Alabama). 8-8 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Georgia, @Auburn). 6-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Miss State is one of the biggest enigmas this season. They looked like a lock 4 weeks ago, but a horrible 2 week stretch has really put a dent in their NCAA hopes. One thing working in Miss State's favor is their record against fellow bubble teams: the Bulldogs have gone 4-1 against Arizona, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. As with many other teams, Miss State needs 2 wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt to secure their spot in the NCAA field. Anything less and they'll have to sweat it out on Sunday.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Tennessee (18-13, 10-6 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 76, SOS 31. 4-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Florida x2, Vanderbilt, Connecticut). 7-9 vs Top 100. 4 sub-100 losses (@Oakland, Austin Peay, @Charleston, @Georgia). 3-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Clearly, if this was just about computer profiles, Tennessee would be out. But the fact is, most of those bad losses came early in the season, and Tennessee has been a completely different team since Stokes was cleared to play. The fact is, with him in the lineup, Tennessee was able to tie Florida and Vanderbilt for 2nd place in the SEC and go 3-1 against those 2 teams. The Vols are going to be a great barometer for how much emphasis the committee puts on how teams play early in the season and how teams play with incomplete rosters.
IMO, Tennessee has to make the finals to have a realistic chance at an at-large.
NCAA chances: Below average
Ole Miss (18-12, 8-8 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 59, SOS 39. 1-6 vs Top 50 (win over Alabama). 6-11 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Auburn). 6-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Despite being virtually invisible for the last month of the season, Ole Miss has quietly worked themselves back onto the bubble. In the end, I think the Rebels' lack of signature wins will doom them to the NIT. If they can make the SEC finals, though, they'll certainly be in the running for one of the last spots in the field.
NCAA chances: Slim
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