Monday, March 5, 2012

March 6 Bubble Update

This post will discuss the bubble teams that have already lost in their conference tournaments.  Teams are listed in order from most likely to least likely to make the field.  All statistics courtesy of

Brigham Young (23-8, 12-4 WCC) 

Computer Profile:  RPI 47, SOS 95.  3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Gonzaga, Nevada, Oregon).  5-6 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (@Utah State, Loyola-Marymount).  12-5 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  BYU's profile is pretty favorable when compared with the power conference bubble teams.  If today was Selection Sunday, the Cougars would definitely be in the field.  Unfortunately for them, it's not, and alot of those resumes are going to improve between now and Sunday.  With that being said, while I would not be surprised to see them fall into 12 seed/first four territory, I would be very surprised if they missed the tournament altogether.

NCAA Chances:  Good (~80%)

Drexel (27-6, 16-2 CAA)

Computer Profile:  RPI 66, SOS 210.  1-2 vs Top 50 (win over VCU).  4-3 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (Norfolk State, @Delaware, @Georgia State).  14-6 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  While the computer profile is lacking, Drexel gets a bump because they went 25-2 after starting the year 2-4.  If it were up to me, the Dragons would be in the field of 68.  It isn't though, so the Dragons will have to wait and hope alot of bubble teams fall early in their conference tournaments.

NCAA Chances:  Fair (~40%)

Iona (25-7, 15-3 MAAC)

Computer Profile:  RPI 43, SOS 145.  1-1 vs Top 50 (win over Nevada).  5-3 vs Top 100.  4 sub-100 losses (@Hofstra, @Siena, Manhattan, Fairfield).  15-6 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  Iona's computer profile is better than you would expect, which keeps them alive for an at-large bid.  Unfortunately for the Gaels, they just don't have a signature win to offset that many bad losses.

NCAA Chances:  Slim (~20%)

Oral Roberts (27-6, 17-1 Summit)

Computer Profile:  RPI 49, SOS 188.  0-2 vs Top 50.  3-3 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (UTSA, @Oklahoma, Western Illinois).  12-6 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  South Dakota State and Xavier are currently sitting at 51 and 57 in the RPI, so there's a good chance Oral Roberts will eventually end up with a top 50 win.  Unfortunately for them, that is unlikely to change their fate.  The Golden Eagles have had a great season, but they are very likely going to end up in the NIT.

NCAA Chances:  Slim (~15%)

Middle Tennessee (25-6, 14-2 Sun Belt)

Computer Profile:  RPI 59, SOS 184.  0-1 vs Top 50.  3-3 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (@UAB, @Western Kentucky, Arkansas State).  11-5 road/neutral

Bottom Line:  2 weeks ago Middle Tennessee appeared to be decent shape for an at-large bid.  Now that they've ended the season with back-to-back bad losses against Western Kentucky and Arkansas State, however, I can't see them getting in with their best wins being Belmont, Akron, and Ole Miss.

NCAA Chances:  Very Slim (~10%)

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