Sunday, January 29, 2012

Projections for 1/30/12

First Four Out:  Washington, Brigham Young, Central Florida, Ole Miss

Next Four Out:  Massachusetts, Arkansas, VCU, Oklahoma

Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Long Island vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Illinois
9 Wichita State

5 San Diego State
12 NC State

4 Georgetown
13 Nevada

6 Murray State
11 Cincinnati

3 Michigan State
14 Oral Roberts

7 Gonzaga
10 Harvard

2 Baylor
15 Davidson

West (#4 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Stony Brook

8 Temple
9 Iowa State

5 St. Mary's
12 Memphis

4 Wisconsin
13 Middle Tennessee

6 Mississippi State
11 Notre Dame

14 Cleveland State

7 Connecticut
10 California

2 Missouri
15 Belmont

East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Texas-Arlington

8 Vanderbilt
9 St. Louis

5 Indiana
12 Seton Hall vs Colorado State

4 Virginia
13 Iona

6 Louisville
11 Texas

3 Florida
14 Akron

7 Florida State
10 Purdue

2 Kansas
15 Weber State

South (#3 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 UNC Asheville

8 New Mexico
9 Alabama

5 West Virginia
12 Long Beach State

4 Creighton
13 Minnesota vs Dayton

6 Michigan
11 Xavier

3 Marquette
14 George Mason

7 Kansas State
10 Southern Miss

2 Duke
15 Bucknell


Anonymous said...

Vandy is way dissed in your bracket. You are off by at least 3 seeds. Look at the schedule, the RPI and the record. No way they seed lower than Michigan and others. They went to Marquette and hammered them. They had two bad losses early when their center was out with bad knee.

Rainmaker203 said...

You seriously think Vanderbilt should be ahead of Michigan? Have you looked at Michigan's profile?

Michigan has an RPI of 23 and an SOS of 16. Vanderbilt has an RPI of 26 and an SOS of 11. Both have one sub-100 loss. Here's the difference:

Michigan already has 6 (that's right, 6) Top 50 wins. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Memphis, Purdue, Iowa State, and Northwestern. Vanderbilt has 3 top 50 wins (Marquette, Alabama, Middle Tennessee), plus a win over NC State.

Pretty obvious to me which team should be seeded higher, and it's not Vanderbilt.

That doesn't really matter to my bracket though because I project what the March bracket will be, not where teams are as of today. Vanderbilt has a very difficult last 10 games. They still have to play Florida and Kentucky twice, and they still have road games against Arkansas (15-0 at home this year), Tennessee (beaten Florida and UConn since getting Stokes cleared), and Ole Miss (9-1 at home this year). That's 7 difficult games still left on the schedule.

I don't expect Vandy to go better than 6-4 in those last 10 games, which would put them at 22-9 overall. That's not a knock on them, I don't think any team outside the top 10 could do better than 6-4 against their closing schedule. If they do better than that, I'll adjust their seed accordingly.