Last Four In: Miami (FL), Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, Wichita State
Last Four Out: Missouri State, VCU, Maryland, Xavier
Next Four Out: St. John's, Old Dominion, Rhode Island, Baylor
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Belmont
8 Northern Iowa
9 Cincinnati
5 Tennessee
12 Miami (FL)
4 Ohio State
13 Western Kentucky
6 New Mexico
11 Vanderbilt
3 North Carolina
14 Murray State
7 Northwestern
10 Richmond
2 Villanova
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 Army
8 UAB
9 Minnesota
5 Ole Miss
12 Cornell
4 Washington
13 Utah State
6 Clemson
11 Memphis
3 Kansas State
14 Long Beach State
7 Brigham Young
10 Florida
2 Purdue
15 Oral Roberts
South (#2 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Vermont
8 UNLV
9 Wake Forest
5 Wisconsin
12 Wichita State
4 Temple
13 Western Carolina
6 Gonzaga
11 California
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 Texas Tech
10 Mississippi State
2 Duke
15 Weber State
East (#3 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Sacred Heart vs Jackson State
8 Georgia Tech
9 Oklahoma State
5 Dayton
12 Southern Cal
4 Connecticut
13 Siena
6 Texas A&M
11 Florida State
3 Michigan State
14 Sam Houston State
7 Butler
10 William & Mary
2 West Virginia
15 Coastal Carolina
Monday, December 28, 2009
Monday, December 21, 2009
Projections for 12/21/09
Last Four In: Richmond, Memphis, Miami (FL), Vanderbilt
Last Four Out: UAB, St. Mary's, Maryland, Illinois
Next Four Out: VCU, Charlotte, Wichita State, Arizona State
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Belmont
8 Northern Iowa
9 Cincinnati
5 Washington
12 Miami (FL)
4 Ohio State
13 Western Carolina
6 Florida
11 Memphis
3 North Carolina
14 Murray State
7 Dayton
10 Minnesota
2 Villanova
15 Vermont
West (#4 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 Army
8 Tulsa
9 Wake Forest
5 Texas A&M
12 Vanderbilt
4 New Mexico
13 Utah State
6 Clemson
11 St. John's
3 Ole Miss
14 Sam Houston State
7 California
10 Oklahoma State
2 Purdue
15 Oral Roberts
South (#2 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Radford
8 Georgia Tech
9 Brigham Young
5 Tennessee
12 William & Mary
4 Connecticut
13 Western Kentucky
6 Temple
11 Mississippi State
3 Michigan State
14 Akron
7 Gonzaga
10 Florida State
2 West Virginia
15 Weber State
East (#3 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Robert Morris vs Jackson State
8 Northwestern
9 Texas Tech
5 Butler
12 Cornell
4 Georgetown
13 Siena
6 Wisconsin
11 Richmond
3 Kansas State
14 Long Beach State
7 UNLV
10 Missouri State
2 Duke
15 Morgan State
Last Four Out: UAB, St. Mary's, Maryland, Illinois
Next Four Out: VCU, Charlotte, Wichita State, Arizona State
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Belmont
8 Northern Iowa
9 Cincinnati
5 Washington
12 Miami (FL)
4 Ohio State
13 Western Carolina
6 Florida
11 Memphis
3 North Carolina
14 Murray State
7 Dayton
10 Minnesota
2 Villanova
15 Vermont
West (#4 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 Army
8 Tulsa
9 Wake Forest
5 Texas A&M
12 Vanderbilt
4 New Mexico
13 Utah State
6 Clemson
11 St. John's
3 Ole Miss
14 Sam Houston State
7 California
10 Oklahoma State
2 Purdue
15 Oral Roberts
South (#2 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Radford
8 Georgia Tech
9 Brigham Young
5 Tennessee
12 William & Mary
4 Connecticut
13 Western Kentucky
6 Temple
11 Mississippi State
3 Michigan State
14 Akron
7 Gonzaga
10 Florida State
2 West Virginia
15 Weber State
East (#3 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Robert Morris vs Jackson State
8 Northwestern
9 Texas Tech
5 Butler
12 Cornell
4 Georgetown
13 Siena
6 Wisconsin
11 Richmond
3 Kansas State
14 Long Beach State
7 UNLV
10 Missouri State
2 Duke
15 Morgan State
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Projections for 12/14/09
Last Four In: Missouri State, Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Xavier
Last Four Out: St. John's, Charlotte, VCU, Richmond
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, NC State, St. Mary's, Seton Hall
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Belmont
8 Clemson
9 Tulsa
5 Illinois
12 Xavier
4 Connecticut
13 Siena
6 Wisconsin
11 Oklahoma State
3 Villanova
14 Akron
7 UNLV
10 Florida State
2 Tennessee
15 Weber State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 Robert Morris
8 California
9 Texas Tech
5 Ole Miss
12 Miami (FL)
4 Gonzaga
13 Western Kentucky
6 Cincinnati
11 Missouri State
3 North Carolina
14 Murray State
7 Dayton
10 Brigham Young
2 Purdue
15 Morgan State
South (#2 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Radford
8 Memphis
9 Maryland
5 Ohio State
12 William & Mary
4 Florida
13 Cornell
6 Washington
11 Minnesota
3 Georgetown
14 Oral Roberts
7 Temple
10 Northern Iowa
2 Duke
15 Sam Houston State
East (#3 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Army vs Jackson State
8 Georgia Tech
9 Northwestern
5 New Mexico
12 Utah State
4 Kansas State
13 Western Carolina
6 Texas A&M
11 Vanderbilt
3 Michigan State
14 Long Beach State
7 Butler
10 Wake Forest
2 West Virginia
15 Vermont
Also Considered: Boston College, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Marquette, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Michigan, Oklahoma, Baylor, Missouri, Arizona State, Arizona, Washington State, South Carolina, Alabama, San Diego State, Rhode Island, La Salle, UTEP, Houston, UAB, Illinois State, Wichita State, Bradley, Portland, Harvard
Last Four Out: St. John's, Charlotte, VCU, Richmond
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, NC State, St. Mary's, Seton Hall
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Belmont
8 Clemson
9 Tulsa
5 Illinois
12 Xavier
4 Connecticut
13 Siena
6 Wisconsin
11 Oklahoma State
3 Villanova
14 Akron
7 UNLV
10 Florida State
2 Tennessee
15 Weber State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 Robert Morris
8 California
9 Texas Tech
5 Ole Miss
12 Miami (FL)
4 Gonzaga
13 Western Kentucky
6 Cincinnati
11 Missouri State
3 North Carolina
14 Murray State
7 Dayton
10 Brigham Young
2 Purdue
15 Morgan State
South (#2 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Radford
8 Memphis
9 Maryland
5 Ohio State
12 William & Mary
4 Florida
13 Cornell
6 Washington
11 Minnesota
3 Georgetown
14 Oral Roberts
7 Temple
10 Northern Iowa
2 Duke
15 Sam Houston State
East (#3 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Army vs Jackson State
8 Georgia Tech
9 Northwestern
5 New Mexico
12 Utah State
4 Kansas State
13 Western Carolina
6 Texas A&M
11 Vanderbilt
3 Michigan State
14 Long Beach State
7 Butler
10 Wake Forest
2 West Virginia
15 Vermont
Also Considered: Boston College, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Marquette, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Michigan, Oklahoma, Baylor, Missouri, Arizona State, Arizona, Washington State, South Carolina, Alabama, San Diego State, Rhode Island, La Salle, UTEP, Houston, UAB, Illinois State, Wichita State, Bradley, Portland, Harvard
Monday, December 7, 2009
Projections for 12/7/09
Last Four In: Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Oklahoma State, Charlotte
Last Four Out: Temple, Minnesota, St. John's, Missouri State
Next Four Out: Florida State, St. Mary's, Notre Dame, William & Mary
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Belmont
8 California
9 Northern Iowa
5 Connecticut
12 Wake Forest
4 Wisconsin
13 Cornell
6 Vanderbilt
11 Oklahoma State
3 North Carolina
14 Akron
7 Dayton
10 New Mexico
2 West Virginia
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Robert Morris
8 Illinois
9 Maryland
5 Cincinnati
12 Charlotte
4 Texas A&M
13 Western Kentucky
6 Ole Miss
11 Miami (FL)
3 Ohio State
14 Long Beach State
7 Memphis
10 Brigham Young
2 Villanova
15 Vermont
South (#2 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Radford
8 Pittsburgh
9 Tulsa
5 UNLV
12 Utah State
4 Michigan State
13 Murray State
6 Georgia Tech
11 Northwestern
3 Florida
14 Charleston
7 Kansas State
10 Xavier
2 Syracuse
15 Oral Roberts
East (#3 Overall)
1 Purdue
16 Army vs. Jackson State
8 Clemson
9 Texas Tech
5 Washington
12 Siena
4 Georgetown
13 Old Dominion
6 Gonzaga
11 Richmond
3 Tennessee
14 Sam Houston State
7 Butler
10 Louisville
2 Duke
15 Weber State
Last Four Out: Temple, Minnesota, St. John's, Missouri State
Next Four Out: Florida State, St. Mary's, Notre Dame, William & Mary
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Belmont
8 California
9 Northern Iowa
5 Connecticut
12 Wake Forest
4 Wisconsin
13 Cornell
6 Vanderbilt
11 Oklahoma State
3 North Carolina
14 Akron
7 Dayton
10 New Mexico
2 West Virginia
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Robert Morris
8 Illinois
9 Maryland
5 Cincinnati
12 Charlotte
4 Texas A&M
13 Western Kentucky
6 Ole Miss
11 Miami (FL)
3 Ohio State
14 Long Beach State
7 Memphis
10 Brigham Young
2 Villanova
15 Vermont
South (#2 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Radford
8 Pittsburgh
9 Tulsa
5 UNLV
12 Utah State
4 Michigan State
13 Murray State
6 Georgia Tech
11 Northwestern
3 Florida
14 Charleston
7 Kansas State
10 Xavier
2 Syracuse
15 Oral Roberts
East (#3 Overall)
1 Purdue
16 Army vs. Jackson State
8 Clemson
9 Texas Tech
5 Washington
12 Siena
4 Georgetown
13 Old Dominion
6 Gonzaga
11 Richmond
3 Tennessee
14 Sam Houston State
7 Butler
10 Louisville
2 Duke
15 Weber State
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Big 10/ACC Challenge Recap Part II
Virginia Tech 70, Iowa 64
Not much to say about this one. It's possible Malcolm Delaney and Virginia Tech could be a middle-of-the-pack ACC team, but doesn't appear likely at this point. Iowa will be lucky not to finish last in the Big 10 the way they're playing right now.
Illinois 76, Clemson 74
One of the two real surprise outcomes of the challenge. Illinois showed alot of toughness and poise to make that incredible comeback in the 2nd half, and it will serve them well for the rest of the season. Clemson looks like they still aren't ready to get over the hump, and will likely yet again be a first week casualty in the NCAA tournament.
Boston College 62, Michigan 58
This is the other big surprise. Michigan has been a huge disappointment so far, with 3 straight losses to teams not projected to make the NCAA field at the start of the year. BC has road wins over Providence and Michigan, but they also have losses to St. Joseph's and Northern Iowa. Just like last year, their fate will be decided in ACC play.
Miami 63, Minnesota 58
Miami has been one of the surprises of the early season, defeating South Carolina and Minnesota en route to an 8-0 start. The Hurricanes will likely enter ACC play undefeated, as the rest of the non-conference schedule is cupcake city. The difficult part of Minnesota's non-conference schedule is over, but they only managed a 1-3 record against potential tournament teams. They'll have to get the job done in Big 10 play if they want to make the big dance.
Wisconsin 73, Duke 69
The Badgers picked up the biggest win of anyone in this challenge. The Badgers already have victories over Duke, Maryland, and Arizona, and that takes alot of pressure off of them entering Big 10 play. Duke is still one of the frontrunners in the ACC, but they have a long way to go if they want to get past the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2004.
Ohio State 77, Florida State 64
The Buckeyes are establishing themselves as the 3rd best team in the Big 10, and should compete for a top 4 seed. Florida State has been a head-scratching team so far. They've looked terrible in road losses to Florida and Ohio State, yet they managed to win the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. They'll be a team to watch in conference play, as they could realistically finish anywhere from 3rd to 9th in the ACC.
Not much to say about this one. It's possible Malcolm Delaney and Virginia Tech could be a middle-of-the-pack ACC team, but doesn't appear likely at this point. Iowa will be lucky not to finish last in the Big 10 the way they're playing right now.
Illinois 76, Clemson 74
One of the two real surprise outcomes of the challenge. Illinois showed alot of toughness and poise to make that incredible comeback in the 2nd half, and it will serve them well for the rest of the season. Clemson looks like they still aren't ready to get over the hump, and will likely yet again be a first week casualty in the NCAA tournament.
Boston College 62, Michigan 58
This is the other big surprise. Michigan has been a huge disappointment so far, with 3 straight losses to teams not projected to make the NCAA field at the start of the year. BC has road wins over Providence and Michigan, but they also have losses to St. Joseph's and Northern Iowa. Just like last year, their fate will be decided in ACC play.
Miami 63, Minnesota 58
Miami has been one of the surprises of the early season, defeating South Carolina and Minnesota en route to an 8-0 start. The Hurricanes will likely enter ACC play undefeated, as the rest of the non-conference schedule is cupcake city. The difficult part of Minnesota's non-conference schedule is over, but they only managed a 1-3 record against potential tournament teams. They'll have to get the job done in Big 10 play if they want to make the big dance.
Wisconsin 73, Duke 69
The Badgers picked up the biggest win of anyone in this challenge. The Badgers already have victories over Duke, Maryland, and Arizona, and that takes alot of pressure off of them entering Big 10 play. Duke is still one of the frontrunners in the ACC, but they have a long way to go if they want to get past the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2004.
Ohio State 77, Florida State 64
The Buckeyes are establishing themselves as the 3rd best team in the Big 10, and should compete for a top 4 seed. Florida State has been a head-scratching team so far. They've looked terrible in road losses to Florida and Ohio State, yet they managed to win the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. They'll be a team to watch in conference play, as they could realistically finish anywhere from 3rd to 9th in the ACC.
Big 10/ACC Challenge Recap Part I
Penn State 69, Virginia 66
Neither of these teams are likely to compete for an at-large bid, but I guess you can't count out Penn State while Talor Battle's still on the team. The Nittany Lions likely picked up a top 100 road win, which never hurts, but they probably need to win the rest of their non-conference games to be on the at-large radar when Big 10 play starts.
Purdue 69, Wake Forest 58
Another solid win for Purdue. Right now they look like the team to beat in the Big 10 and a legitimate contender for the Final Four. Wake Forest has the pieces to be an NCAA team, but that loss to William & Mary could come back to bite them if they do happen to end up on the bubble in March.
Northwestern 65, NC State 53
This is Northwestern's third straight road/neutral win against a power conference opponent. With Stanford being the lone non-cupcake left on their non-conference schedule, the Wildcats could easily be 10-1 entering Big 10 play. NC State, meanwhile, blew a great chance at a quality non-conference win. Upcoming road games against Marquette and Arizona later this month will tell whether or not NC State can compete for an at-large bid this year.
Maryland 80, Indiana 68
This game was back-and-forth until Maryland pulled away in the final minutes and avoided a damaging loss. The Terps have been underwhelming so far this year, but will likely still make the NCAA tournament. Indiana, on the other hand, is still a year or two away from seriously competing for a bid.
North Carolina 89, Michigan State 82
A very nice win for the Tar Heels, who still have all the pieces in place for another deep run in March. The Spartans are yet again off to a disappointing start after having a Top 10 preseason ranking. Given the way the game played out and the fact that it was played in Chapel Hill, Michigan State is probably the better team and would win most of the time if the game was on a neutral court. Whether or not that's still the case at the end of the year is anyone's guess.
Neither of these teams are likely to compete for an at-large bid, but I guess you can't count out Penn State while Talor Battle's still on the team. The Nittany Lions likely picked up a top 100 road win, which never hurts, but they probably need to win the rest of their non-conference games to be on the at-large radar when Big 10 play starts.
Purdue 69, Wake Forest 58
Another solid win for Purdue. Right now they look like the team to beat in the Big 10 and a legitimate contender for the Final Four. Wake Forest has the pieces to be an NCAA team, but that loss to William & Mary could come back to bite them if they do happen to end up on the bubble in March.
Northwestern 65, NC State 53
This is Northwestern's third straight road/neutral win against a power conference opponent. With Stanford being the lone non-cupcake left on their non-conference schedule, the Wildcats could easily be 10-1 entering Big 10 play. NC State, meanwhile, blew a great chance at a quality non-conference win. Upcoming road games against Marquette and Arizona later this month will tell whether or not NC State can compete for an at-large bid this year.
Maryland 80, Indiana 68
This game was back-and-forth until Maryland pulled away in the final minutes and avoided a damaging loss. The Terps have been underwhelming so far this year, but will likely still make the NCAA tournament. Indiana, on the other hand, is still a year or two away from seriously competing for a bid.
North Carolina 89, Michigan State 82
A very nice win for the Tar Heels, who still have all the pieces in place for another deep run in March. The Spartans are yet again off to a disappointing start after having a Top 10 preseason ranking. Given the way the game played out and the fact that it was played in Chapel Hill, Michigan State is probably the better team and would win most of the time if the game was on a neutral court. Whether or not that's still the case at the end of the year is anyone's guess.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Feast Week Winners and Losers
With the conclusion of the early season tournaments, college basketball is finally in full swing. There were some marquee matchups this week, but this post will focus on how the potential bubble teams fared. Here's a summary of which teams boosted their profiles this week, and which teams suffered major setbacks.
Winners
Portland: I'll admit the Pilots were not on my at-large radar entering the season, but it's impossible to ignore them now after blowing out UCLA and beating Minnesota. The WCC definitely looks like a multi-bid league at this point after the conference's strong OOC performance, and right now Portland looks to be in good shape for an at-large bid.
Florida: nobody picked up a bigger win than the Gators this week, knocking off Michigan State in Atlantic City en route to winning the Legends Classic. That win will be huge in March if Florida does happen to end up on the bubble.
Richmond: the Spiders more than made up for the early season loss to William & Mary by defeating Mississippi State and Missouri to win the South Padre Island Invitational. Their next 4 games (Old Dominion, @VCU, @South Carolina, @Florida) will go a long way towards determining their at-large chances.
Gonzaga: after winning the Maui Invitational and taking Michigan State to the wire, Gonzaga has once again gotten off to a strong start. Traditionally though, the Zags have been unable to back that up with success in March. Will this year be any different?
Cincinnati: the Bearcats were squarely on the bubble going into the Maui Invitational. Now that they picked up neutral court wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland, Cincinnati is in great position to make the NCAA tournament with a decent showing in conference.
Wisconsin: the Badgers picked up two big wins against fellow bubble teams Arizona and Maryland. If they end up on the bubble in March, those wins should help keep them in the field.
Marquette: the Golden Eagles nearly won the Old Spice Classic, beating Xavier and Michigan before losing to Florida State by 1. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Marquette, but they look like a team plenty capable of making the NCAAs.
Florida State: FSU made up for the blowout loss against Florida by winning the Old Spice Classic. While they didn't pick up any marquee wins, neutral court victories against fellow bubble teams Alabama and Marquette definitely help the Seminole's at-large hopes.
UNLV: for the 2nd year in a row UNLV picks up a marquee win against Louisville. Will they be able to build on it and make the big dance this time around?
San Diego: the Toreros picked up wins over Oklahoma and Houston. Despite the blowout loss to Washington State in the Championship, San Diego has a chance at an at-large bid if they do well in WCC play.
Alabama: they weren't really on my radar either at the beginning of the year, but the Crimson Tide are definitely in the at-large discussion now after beating Baylor and Michigan.
Northwestern: the quest for their first NCAA bid in school history is still on track after defeating Notre Dame and Iowa State. If they can beat NC State this week, the Wildcats should be 10-1 heading into Big 10 play.
Losers
Arizona: the Wildcats had second half leads against Wisconsin and Vanderbilt, but didn't manage to win either of them. As bad as the Pac-10 has been so far, the Wildcats don't have too many more chances to pick up quality wins and impress the committee.
Maryland: I thought Maryland was a sleeper this year in the ACC, but the Terps did not look good at all in losses against Wisconsin and Cincinnati. Hopefully they remember how they got to the NCAAs last year and start playing hard again.
Notre Dame: the Irish had a great chance to pick up some wins against fellow bubble teams this week, but
lost to Northwestern and had to settle for a win against St. Louis.
Illinois: a bad week for the Illini, who lost back-to-back games against Utah and Bradley, both of which are unlikely to compete for an NCAA bid this year.
Creighton: I never would have picked the Blue Jays to go 0-3 at the Old Spice Classic, but they did just that, including losing to Iona on the final day. Unless they dominate the MVC, Creighton likely has little chance at an at-large bid now.
UCLA: The same goes for the Bruins. With just a 2-4 record and losses to CSU-Fullerton and Long Beach State, UCLA needs to turn it around in a hurry if they want to have any chance at an NCAA bid.
Mississippi State: a poor start to the season for MSU, losing to Rider and now losing to Richmond in the South Padre semis. They somewhat made up for it with a good win against Old Dominion, keeping them in the NCAA hunt for now.
Wake Forest: the Deacons lost at home to William & Mary on Saturday night. W&M may not be that bad a team since they've also beaten Richmond, but for now it's enough to bump Wake Forest out of the tournament field.
Siena: an underwhelming start so far for the Saints, losing to Temple and St. John's. Siena needs to at least split their road games against Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa, then dominate the MAAC if they want a good seed in March.
Oklahoma: no team has been more surprisingly bad so far this year than the Sooners. They are 3-3 with losses to VCU, San Diego, and Houston, and trailed in the 2nd half against Nicholls State before finally waking up and winning by 21. Oklahoma better run the table in their next 4 games (Arkansas, Arizona, Centenary, @Utah) or they could end up in a situation similar to Kentucky 2 years ago where they have to win 10 or more conference games just to get back into the NCAA discussion.
Winners
Portland: I'll admit the Pilots were not on my at-large radar entering the season, but it's impossible to ignore them now after blowing out UCLA and beating Minnesota. The WCC definitely looks like a multi-bid league at this point after the conference's strong OOC performance, and right now Portland looks to be in good shape for an at-large bid.
Florida: nobody picked up a bigger win than the Gators this week, knocking off Michigan State in Atlantic City en route to winning the Legends Classic. That win will be huge in March if Florida does happen to end up on the bubble.
Richmond: the Spiders more than made up for the early season loss to William & Mary by defeating Mississippi State and Missouri to win the South Padre Island Invitational. Their next 4 games (Old Dominion, @VCU, @South Carolina, @Florida) will go a long way towards determining their at-large chances.
Gonzaga: after winning the Maui Invitational and taking Michigan State to the wire, Gonzaga has once again gotten off to a strong start. Traditionally though, the Zags have been unable to back that up with success in March. Will this year be any different?
Cincinnati: the Bearcats were squarely on the bubble going into the Maui Invitational. Now that they picked up neutral court wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland, Cincinnati is in great position to make the NCAA tournament with a decent showing in conference.
Wisconsin: the Badgers picked up two big wins against fellow bubble teams Arizona and Maryland. If they end up on the bubble in March, those wins should help keep them in the field.
Marquette: the Golden Eagles nearly won the Old Spice Classic, beating Xavier and Michigan before losing to Florida State by 1. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Marquette, but they look like a team plenty capable of making the NCAAs.
Florida State: FSU made up for the blowout loss against Florida by winning the Old Spice Classic. While they didn't pick up any marquee wins, neutral court victories against fellow bubble teams Alabama and Marquette definitely help the Seminole's at-large hopes.
UNLV: for the 2nd year in a row UNLV picks up a marquee win against Louisville. Will they be able to build on it and make the big dance this time around?
San Diego: the Toreros picked up wins over Oklahoma and Houston. Despite the blowout loss to Washington State in the Championship, San Diego has a chance at an at-large bid if they do well in WCC play.
Alabama: they weren't really on my radar either at the beginning of the year, but the Crimson Tide are definitely in the at-large discussion now after beating Baylor and Michigan.
Northwestern: the quest for their first NCAA bid in school history is still on track after defeating Notre Dame and Iowa State. If they can beat NC State this week, the Wildcats should be 10-1 heading into Big 10 play.
Losers
Arizona: the Wildcats had second half leads against Wisconsin and Vanderbilt, but didn't manage to win either of them. As bad as the Pac-10 has been so far, the Wildcats don't have too many more chances to pick up quality wins and impress the committee.
Maryland: I thought Maryland was a sleeper this year in the ACC, but the Terps did not look good at all in losses against Wisconsin and Cincinnati. Hopefully they remember how they got to the NCAAs last year and start playing hard again.
Notre Dame: the Irish had a great chance to pick up some wins against fellow bubble teams this week, but
lost to Northwestern and had to settle for a win against St. Louis.
Illinois: a bad week for the Illini, who lost back-to-back games against Utah and Bradley, both of which are unlikely to compete for an NCAA bid this year.
Creighton: I never would have picked the Blue Jays to go 0-3 at the Old Spice Classic, but they did just that, including losing to Iona on the final day. Unless they dominate the MVC, Creighton likely has little chance at an at-large bid now.
UCLA: The same goes for the Bruins. With just a 2-4 record and losses to CSU-Fullerton and Long Beach State, UCLA needs to turn it around in a hurry if they want to have any chance at an NCAA bid.
Mississippi State: a poor start to the season for MSU, losing to Rider and now losing to Richmond in the South Padre semis. They somewhat made up for it with a good win against Old Dominion, keeping them in the NCAA hunt for now.
Wake Forest: the Deacons lost at home to William & Mary on Saturday night. W&M may not be that bad a team since they've also beaten Richmond, but for now it's enough to bump Wake Forest out of the tournament field.
Siena: an underwhelming start so far for the Saints, losing to Temple and St. John's. Siena needs to at least split their road games against Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa, then dominate the MAAC if they want a good seed in March.
Oklahoma: no team has been more surprisingly bad so far this year than the Sooners. They are 3-3 with losses to VCU, San Diego, and Houston, and trailed in the 2nd half against Nicholls State before finally waking up and winning by 21. Oklahoma better run the table in their next 4 games (Arkansas, Arizona, Centenary, @Utah) or they could end up in a situation similar to Kentucky 2 years ago where they have to win 10 or more conference games just to get back into the NCAA discussion.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Projections for 11/30
Last Four In: Marquette, Richmond, Arizona State, Northwestern
Last Four Out: Miami (FL), St. John's, Illinois, Temple
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Missouri, Mississippi State, UTEP
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Radford
8 Georgia Tech
9 Xavier
5 Connecticut
12 Arizona State
4 Ohio State
13 Long Beach State
6 Brigham Young
11 Michigan
3 Tennessee
14 Charleston
7 Butler
10 Maryland
2 West Virginia
15 Sam Houston State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Purdue
16 Mount St. Mary's vs Jackson State
8 Pittsburgh
9 Memphis
5 Texas A&M
12 Northern Iowa
4 Gonzaga
13 Nevada
6 Clemson
11 Marquette
3 Washington
14 Murray State
7 Ole Miss
10 Siena
2 Villanova
15 Vermont
East (#2 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Jacksonville
8 Oklahoma State
9 Wisconsin
5 Cincinnati
12 VCU
4 Florida
13 Western Kentucky
6 Dayton
11 Portland
3 Michigan State
14 Montana
7 Kansas State
10 Florida State
2 Syracuse
15 Oral Roberts
South (#3 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Army
8 Minnesota
9 Vanderbilt
5 California
12 Richmond
4 Georgetown
13 Cornell
6 Louisville
11 Northwestern
3 North Carolina
14 Akron
7 UNLV
10 Tulsa
2 Kentucky
15 Morgan State
Last Four Out: Miami (FL), St. John's, Illinois, Temple
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Missouri, Mississippi State, UTEP
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Radford
8 Georgia Tech
9 Xavier
5 Connecticut
12 Arizona State
4 Ohio State
13 Long Beach State
6 Brigham Young
11 Michigan
3 Tennessee
14 Charleston
7 Butler
10 Maryland
2 West Virginia
15 Sam Houston State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Purdue
16 Mount St. Mary's vs Jackson State
8 Pittsburgh
9 Memphis
5 Texas A&M
12 Northern Iowa
4 Gonzaga
13 Nevada
6 Clemson
11 Marquette
3 Washington
14 Murray State
7 Ole Miss
10 Siena
2 Villanova
15 Vermont
East (#2 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Jacksonville
8 Oklahoma State
9 Wisconsin
5 Cincinnati
12 VCU
4 Florida
13 Western Kentucky
6 Dayton
11 Portland
3 Michigan State
14 Montana
7 Kansas State
10 Florida State
2 Syracuse
15 Oral Roberts
South (#3 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Army
8 Minnesota
9 Vanderbilt
5 California
12 Richmond
4 Georgetown
13 Cornell
6 Louisville
11 Northwestern
3 North Carolina
14 Akron
7 UNLV
10 Tulsa
2 Kentucky
15 Morgan State
Monday, November 23, 2009
Projections for 11/23
There haven't been too many games of note so far this season, so to make these projections I took on-court results and preseason projections both into account.
Last Four In: Arizona State, Miami (FL), Florida, UNLV
Last Four Out: Missouri, Florida State, Cincinnati, Arizona
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Jacksonville
8 Louisville
9 Memphis
5 Minnesota
12 Arizona State
4 Maryland
13 Akron
6 California
11 Nevada
3 Syracuse
14 Charleston
7 Clemson
10 Oklahoma
2 Kentucky
15 Oral Roberts
West (#4 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Radford
8 Brigham Young
9 Mississippi State
5 Ohio State
12 Miami (FL)
4 Georgetown
13 Western Kentucky
6 Connecticut
11 Old Dominion
3 North Carolina
14 Montana
7 Vanderbilt
10 UCLA
2 Purdue
15 Morgan State
East (#2 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Mount St. Mary's vs Jackson State
8 Tulsa
9 Texas A&M
5 Xavier
12 Notre Dame
4 Butler
13 UNLV
6 Kansas State
11 Wisconsin
3 West Virginia
14 Vermont
7 Georgia Tech
10 Siena
2 Tennessee
15 Sam Houston State
South (#3 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Holy Cross
8 Gonzaga
9 Pittsburgh
5 Dayton
12 Florida
4 Michigan
13 Cornell
6 Ole Miss
11 Creighton
3 Washington
14 Long Beach State
7 Illinois
10 Oklahoma State
2 Villanova
15 Murray State
Last Four In: Arizona State, Miami (FL), Florida, UNLV
Last Four Out: Missouri, Florida State, Cincinnati, Arizona
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Jacksonville
8 Louisville
9 Memphis
5 Minnesota
12 Arizona State
4 Maryland
13 Akron
6 California
11 Nevada
3 Syracuse
14 Charleston
7 Clemson
10 Oklahoma
2 Kentucky
15 Oral Roberts
West (#4 Overall)
1 Texas
16 Radford
8 Brigham Young
9 Mississippi State
5 Ohio State
12 Miami (FL)
4 Georgetown
13 Western Kentucky
6 Connecticut
11 Old Dominion
3 North Carolina
14 Montana
7 Vanderbilt
10 UCLA
2 Purdue
15 Morgan State
East (#2 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Mount St. Mary's vs Jackson State
8 Tulsa
9 Texas A&M
5 Xavier
12 Notre Dame
4 Butler
13 UNLV
6 Kansas State
11 Wisconsin
3 West Virginia
14 Vermont
7 Georgia Tech
10 Siena
2 Tennessee
15 Sam Houston State
South (#3 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Holy Cross
8 Gonzaga
9 Pittsburgh
5 Dayton
12 Florida
4 Michigan
13 Cornell
6 Ole Miss
11 Creighton
3 Washington
14 Long Beach State
7 Illinois
10 Oklahoma State
2 Villanova
15 Murray State
Monday, October 26, 2009
Preseason Bracket Projections
Last Four In: Arizona State, Notre Dame, Nevada, Utah
Last Four Out: Missouri, Florida, Cincinnati, Florida State
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Murray State
8 Tulsa
9 Vanderbilt
5 Siena
12 Arizona State
4 Michigan
13 Western Kentucky
6 Georgia Tech
11 Creighton
3 West Virginia
14 Oakland
7 Gonzaga
10 Oklahoma
2 Tennessee
15 Sam Houston State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Texas
16 South Carolina State
8 Louisville
9 Memphis
5 Minnesota
12 Nevada
4 Butler
13 Akron
6 Ohio State
11 Pittsburgh
3 California
14 Long Beach State
7 South Carolina
10 Kansas State
2 North Carolina
15 Jacksonville
East (#2 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Mount St. Mary's vs Jackson State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Ole Miss
5 Dayton
12 Notre Dame
4 Maryland
13 Cornell
6 UCLA
11 Wisconsin
3 Mississippi State
14 Charleston
7 Clemson
10 Brigham Young
2 Villanova
15 Vermont
South (#3 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Holy Cross
8 Illinois
9 Texas A&M
5 Georgetown
12 Old Dominion
4 Washington
13 Utah
6 Xavier
11 Utah State
3 Kentucky
14 Weber State
7 Connecticut
10 Wake Forest
2 Purdue
15 Radford
Last Four Out: Missouri, Florida, Cincinnati, Florida State
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Murray State
8 Tulsa
9 Vanderbilt
5 Siena
12 Arizona State
4 Michigan
13 Western Kentucky
6 Georgia Tech
11 Creighton
3 West Virginia
14 Oakland
7 Gonzaga
10 Oklahoma
2 Tennessee
15 Sam Houston State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Texas
16 South Carolina State
8 Louisville
9 Memphis
5 Minnesota
12 Nevada
4 Butler
13 Akron
6 Ohio State
11 Pittsburgh
3 California
14 Long Beach State
7 South Carolina
10 Kansas State
2 North Carolina
15 Jacksonville
East (#2 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Mount St. Mary's vs Jackson State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Ole Miss
5 Dayton
12 Notre Dame
4 Maryland
13 Cornell
6 UCLA
11 Wisconsin
3 Mississippi State
14 Charleston
7 Clemson
10 Brigham Young
2 Villanova
15 Vermont
South (#3 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Holy Cross
8 Illinois
9 Texas A&M
5 Georgetown
12 Old Dominion
4 Washington
13 Utah
6 Xavier
11 Utah State
3 Kentucky
14 Weber State
7 Connecticut
10 Wake Forest
2 Purdue
15 Radford
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Predictions for 2009-10
Regular Season Predictions
Conference Champions
ACC: Duke
Big East: Villanova
Big 10: Michigan State
Big 12: Kansas
Pac 10: California
SEC: Tennessee
MWC: Brigham Young
WCC: Gonzaga
A-10: Dayton
MVC: Creighton
C-USA: Tulsa
WAC: Utah State
Player of the Year: Sherron Collins, Kansas
Tournament Predictions
Cinderellas: Siena, Tulsa, Old Dominion
Sleeper Teams: Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, UCLA
Early Exits: North Carolina, California, Tennessee
Final Four: Kansas, Villanova, Duke, Purdue
National Champions: Kansas Jayhawks
MVP: Cole Aldrich, Kansas
Conference Champions
ACC: Duke
Big East: Villanova
Big 10: Michigan State
Big 12: Kansas
Pac 10: California
SEC: Tennessee
MWC: Brigham Young
WCC: Gonzaga
A-10: Dayton
MVC: Creighton
C-USA: Tulsa
WAC: Utah State
Player of the Year: Sherron Collins, Kansas
Tournament Predictions
Cinderellas: Siena, Tulsa, Old Dominion
Sleeper Teams: Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, UCLA
Early Exits: North Carolina, California, Tennessee
Final Four: Kansas, Villanova, Duke, Purdue
National Champions: Kansas Jayhawks
MVP: Cole Aldrich, Kansas
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Final Predictions
Midwest (#1 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
Portland, OR
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin
Miami, FL
6 Tennessee
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Akron
Kansas City, MO
7 Clemson
10 Wisconsin
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
Philadelphia, PA
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Boston College
Boise, ID
5 Gonzaga
12 Mississippi State
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
Miami, FL
6 West Virginia
11 Southern Cal
3 Wake Forest
14 American
Kansas City, MO
7 Utah
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
East (#2 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Brigham Young
9 Michigan
Portland, OR
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 Virginia Commonwealth
Philadelphia, PA
6 Xavier
11 Maryland
3 Syracuse
14 Binghamton
Minneapolis, MN
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Michigan State
15 Robert Morris
South (#3 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Louisville
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 California
Boise, ID
5 Illinois
12 Cleveland State
4 Kansas
13 Northern Iowa
Minneapolis, MN
6 Ohio State
11 Utah State
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
Greensboro, NC
7 LSU
10 Dayton
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
Portland, OR
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin
Miami, FL
6 Tennessee
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Akron
Kansas City, MO
7 Clemson
10 Wisconsin
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
Philadelphia, PA
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Boston College
Boise, ID
5 Gonzaga
12 Mississippi State
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
Miami, FL
6 West Virginia
11 Southern Cal
3 Wake Forest
14 American
Kansas City, MO
7 Utah
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
East (#2 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Brigham Young
9 Michigan
Portland, OR
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 Virginia Commonwealth
Philadelphia, PA
6 Xavier
11 Maryland
3 Syracuse
14 Binghamton
Minneapolis, MN
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Michigan State
15 Robert Morris
South (#3 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Louisville
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 California
Boise, ID
5 Illinois
12 Cleveland State
4 Kansas
13 Northern Iowa
Minneapolis, MN
6 Ohio State
11 Utah State
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
Greensboro, NC
7 LSU
10 Dayton
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Selection Sunday Predictions
I've assumed that the winners of tomorrows games will be Stephen F. Austin, Tennessee, Duke, and Purdue. I will post a final bracket in the afternoon if any upsets occur, or if I feel like I need to change something.
Midwest (#1 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
Portland, OR
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Purdue
13 American
Miami, FL
6 Tennessee
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Akron
Kansas City, MO
7 Clemson
10 Wisconsin
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
Philadelphia, PA
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Boston College
Boise, ID
5 Gonzaga
12 San Diego State*
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
Miami, FL
6 West Virginia
11 Southern Cal
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
Kansas City, MO
7 Utah
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
East (#2 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Brigham Young
9 Michigan
Portland, OR
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 Virginia Commonwealth
Philadelphia, PA
6 Xavier
11 Maryland
3 Syracuse
14 Binghamton
Minneapolis, MN
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Michigan State
15 Robert Morris
South (#3 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Louisville
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 California
Boise, ID
5 Illinois
12 Cleveland State
4 Kansas
13 Northern Iowa
Minneapolis, MN
6 Ohio State
11 Utah State
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
Greensboro, NC
7 LSU
10 Dayton
2 Duke
15 Cornell
*- Mississippi State will go here if they win tomorrow
Midwest (#1 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
Portland, OR
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Purdue
13 American
Miami, FL
6 Tennessee
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Akron
Kansas City, MO
7 Clemson
10 Wisconsin
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
Philadelphia, PA
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Boston College
Boise, ID
5 Gonzaga
12 San Diego State*
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
Miami, FL
6 West Virginia
11 Southern Cal
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
Kansas City, MO
7 Utah
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
East (#2 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Brigham Young
9 Michigan
Portland, OR
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 Virginia Commonwealth
Philadelphia, PA
6 Xavier
11 Maryland
3 Syracuse
14 Binghamton
Minneapolis, MN
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Michigan State
15 Robert Morris
South (#3 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Louisville
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 California
Boise, ID
5 Illinois
12 Cleveland State
4 Kansas
13 Northern Iowa
Minneapolis, MN
6 Ohio State
11 Utah State
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
Greensboro, NC
7 LSU
10 Dayton
2 Duke
15 Cornell
*- Mississippi State will go here if they win tomorrow
Final Bubble Update
Well, Selection Sunday is finally here folks. I believe there are 3 bids still available, and that there are 7 teams fighting for these 3 spots. I'd like to share my rankings of the 7 teams, and comment on why I think the teams will or won't get in.
1. Maryland
2. St. Mary's
-------------
3. San Diego State
-------------
4. Penn State
5. Creighton
6. Auburn
7. Arizona
-Maryland is the team I feel the best about. The Terps have alot of negatives on their resume (7-9 in ACC play, losses to Morgan State and Virginia, 6-9 road/neutral record, 8-11 vs Top 100 teams, RPI in the 50s), but the marquee wins over North Carolina, Michigan State, and Wake Forest show that they are capable of winning games in the tournament. I think that will ultimately allow them to sneak into the field.
-St. Mary's is the hardest team figure out because of the injury to Patty Mills. The San Diego State loss in the Mountain West finals was huge for them. St. Mary's beat the Aztecs on a neutral court in December, and since their resumes are so similar, it's hard to see the committee taking SDSU and not the Gaels.
-Penn State deserves an NCAA bid, but they'd be the 8th team from the Big 10, and regardless of what the committee says, I have a hard time believing that fact would not persuade some members to keep the Nittany Lions out of the field. Along the same lines, it would not surprise me at all to see Auburn in the field tomorrow despite not having an NCAA resume. Will the committee really give the SEC just 2 bids if Mississippi State loses tomorrow? We shall see.
-Creighton's situation is very similar to Illinois State from last year. ISU finished 2nd in the Valley and had an RPI in the 30s, but the lack of quality wins and blowout loss in the MVC tournament kept them out of the NCAA tournament. This year, Creighton got blown out by Illinois State in the semi's. Despite winning 11 of their last 12 and being an impressive 9-5 against the Top 100, their best wins were at home against Dayton and Illinois State. Based on last year's precedent, I just don't think they will make it.
-Arizona really shouldn't be in, but they're a big name school, have been to the tournament 24 years in a row, have 6 wins against Top 50 teams (including marquee wins over Kansas, UCLA, and Gonzaga, and a win over fellow bubble team SDSU), and have only 1 bad loss (@Stanford). With that much working in their favor, I'm not willing to declare them dead just yet.
1. Maryland
2. St. Mary's
-------------
3. San Diego State
-------------
4. Penn State
5. Creighton
6. Auburn
7. Arizona
-Maryland is the team I feel the best about. The Terps have alot of negatives on their resume (7-9 in ACC play, losses to Morgan State and Virginia, 6-9 road/neutral record, 8-11 vs Top 100 teams, RPI in the 50s), but the marquee wins over North Carolina, Michigan State, and Wake Forest show that they are capable of winning games in the tournament. I think that will ultimately allow them to sneak into the field.
-St. Mary's is the hardest team figure out because of the injury to Patty Mills. The San Diego State loss in the Mountain West finals was huge for them. St. Mary's beat the Aztecs on a neutral court in December, and since their resumes are so similar, it's hard to see the committee taking SDSU and not the Gaels.
-Penn State deserves an NCAA bid, but they'd be the 8th team from the Big 10, and regardless of what the committee says, I have a hard time believing that fact would not persuade some members to keep the Nittany Lions out of the field. Along the same lines, it would not surprise me at all to see Auburn in the field tomorrow despite not having an NCAA resume. Will the committee really give the SEC just 2 bids if Mississippi State loses tomorrow? We shall see.
-Creighton's situation is very similar to Illinois State from last year. ISU finished 2nd in the Valley and had an RPI in the 30s, but the lack of quality wins and blowout loss in the MVC tournament kept them out of the NCAA tournament. This year, Creighton got blown out by Illinois State in the semi's. Despite winning 11 of their last 12 and being an impressive 9-5 against the Top 100, their best wins were at home against Dayton and Illinois State. Based on last year's precedent, I just don't think they will make it.
-Arizona really shouldn't be in, but they're a big name school, have been to the tournament 24 years in a row, have 6 wins against Top 50 teams (including marquee wins over Kansas, UCLA, and Gonzaga, and a win over fellow bubble team SDSU), and have only 1 bad loss (@Stanford). With that much working in their favor, I'm not willing to declare them dead just yet.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Projections for 3/14/09
I believe 31 of the 34 at-large spots have been locked up, with 6 teams playing for the last 3 spots, so I am just doing a "Last Three In" today.
Last Three In: Maryland, Penn State, St. Mary's
Last Three Out: Creighton, Auburn, Southern Cal
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morehead State
8 Tennessee
9 Michigan
5 West Virginia
12 Northern Iowa
4 Arizona State
13 Cleveland State
6 Purdue
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Binghamton
7 Clemson
10 San Diego State
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
5 Gonzaga
12 Maryland
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
6 Utah
11 Penn State
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Connecticut
15 Cornell
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Oklahoma State
9 California
5 Illinois
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 American
6 LSU
11 Minnesota
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
7 Brigham Young
10 Dayton
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
South (#3 Overall)
1 Louisville
16 Radford
8 Ohio State
9 Boston College
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Kansas
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Xavier
11 Utah State
3 Syracuse
14 Buffalo
7 Butler
10 Wisconsin
2 Duke
15 Robert Morris
Last Three In: Maryland, Penn State, St. Mary's
Last Three Out: Creighton, Auburn, Southern Cal
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morehead State
8 Tennessee
9 Michigan
5 West Virginia
12 Northern Iowa
4 Arizona State
13 Cleveland State
6 Purdue
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Binghamton
7 Clemson
10 San Diego State
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
5 Gonzaga
12 Maryland
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
6 Utah
11 Penn State
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Connecticut
15 Cornell
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Oklahoma State
9 California
5 Illinois
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 American
6 LSU
11 Minnesota
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
7 Brigham Young
10 Dayton
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
South (#3 Overall)
1 Louisville
16 Radford
8 Ohio State
9 Boston College
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Kansas
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Xavier
11 Utah State
3 Syracuse
14 Buffalo
7 Butler
10 Wisconsin
2 Duke
15 Robert Morris
Friday, March 13, 2009
Projections for 3/13/09
Last Four In: South Carolina, Creighton, San Diego State, Arizona
Last Four Out: St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Auburn
Next Four Out: Maryland, Southern Cal, Providence, UNLV
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Tennessee
9 Ohio State
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Syracuse
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Purdue
11 Creighton
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Siena
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 Boston College
5 Xavier
12 Arizona
4 Kansas
13 American
6 Texas
11 Utah State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Clemson
10 Penn State
2 Connecticut
15 Morgan State
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs. Alabama State
8 California
9 Dayton
5 Illinois
12 Northern Iowa
4 Florida State
13 Cleveland State
6 Brigham Young
11 South Carolina
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
7 Marquette
10 Minnesota
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Louisville
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Wisconsin
5 UCLA
12 San Diego State
4 Gonzaga
13 North Dakota State
6 West Virginia
11 Texas A&M
3 Wake Forest
14 Binghamton
7 LSU
10 Michigan
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Auburn
Next Four Out: Maryland, Southern Cal, Providence, UNLV
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Tennessee
9 Ohio State
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Syracuse
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Purdue
11 Creighton
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Siena
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 Boston College
5 Xavier
12 Arizona
4 Kansas
13 American
6 Texas
11 Utah State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Clemson
10 Penn State
2 Connecticut
15 Morgan State
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs. Alabama State
8 California
9 Dayton
5 Illinois
12 Northern Iowa
4 Florida State
13 Cleveland State
6 Brigham Young
11 South Carolina
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
7 Marquette
10 Minnesota
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Louisville
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Wisconsin
5 UCLA
12 San Diego State
4 Gonzaga
13 North Dakota State
6 West Virginia
11 Texas A&M
3 Wake Forest
14 Binghamton
7 LSU
10 Michigan
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Bubble Update: 3/11/09
Now that the big boys are about to begin conference tournaments, it seems like the appropriate time to see where everyone stands.
Projected Automatic Bids:
North Carolina, Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas, Washington, LSU, Brigham Young, Gonzaga, Xavier, Memphis, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Utah State, Chattanooga, plus 17 from 1-bid leagues with no bubble teams.
At-large Locks (25):
Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Tennessee, Utah, Butler
Should be in with 1 more victory (5 teams):
Michigan, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Dayton
Bubble (11 teams fighting for 4 spots):
Providence, Penn State, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Creighton, Davidson
Still alive, but need deep tournament runs to get on the bubble:
Miami (FL), Maryland, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Kansas State, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Rhode Island
Projected Automatic Bids:
North Carolina, Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas, Washington, LSU, Brigham Young, Gonzaga, Xavier, Memphis, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Utah State, Chattanooga, plus 17 from 1-bid leagues with no bubble teams.
At-large Locks (25):
Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Tennessee, Utah, Butler
Should be in with 1 more victory (5 teams):
Michigan, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Dayton
Bubble (11 teams fighting for 4 spots):
Providence, Penn State, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Creighton, Davidson
Still alive, but need deep tournament runs to get on the bubble:
Miami (FL), Maryland, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Kansas State, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Rhode Island
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Projections for 3/11/09
Last Four In: Penn State, UNLV, South Carolina, New Mexico
Last Four Out: Creighton, Providence, St. Mary's, Florida
Next Four Out: San Diego State, Auburn, Miami (FL), Maryland
South (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M
5 Syracuse
12 Siena
4 Illinois
13 Cleveland State
6 Arizona State
11 South Carolina
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Michigan
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Tennessee
9 Dayton
5 Clemson
12 Northern Iowa
4 Missouri
13 North Dakota State
6 Brigham Young
11 Penn State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Butler
10 Boston College
2 Louisville
15 Morgan State
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Wisconsin
9 Oklahoma State
5 Xavier
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Purdue
11 UNLV
3 Kansas
14 Portland State
7 California
10 Utah State
2 Duke
15 Cornell
East (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Texas
9 Ohio State
5 UCLA
12 New Mexico
4 Gonzaga
13 American
6 Marquette
11 Arizona
3 Wake Forest
14 Binghamton
7 LSU
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: Creighton, Providence, St. Mary's, Florida
Next Four Out: San Diego State, Auburn, Miami (FL), Maryland
South (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M
5 Syracuse
12 Siena
4 Illinois
13 Cleveland State
6 Arizona State
11 South Carolina
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Michigan
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Tennessee
9 Dayton
5 Clemson
12 Northern Iowa
4 Missouri
13 North Dakota State
6 Brigham Young
11 Penn State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Butler
10 Boston College
2 Louisville
15 Morgan State
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Wisconsin
9 Oklahoma State
5 Xavier
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Purdue
11 UNLV
3 Kansas
14 Portland State
7 California
10 Utah State
2 Duke
15 Cornell
East (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Texas
9 Ohio State
5 UCLA
12 New Mexico
4 Gonzaga
13 American
6 Marquette
11 Arizona
3 Wake Forest
14 Binghamton
7 LSU
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Projections for 3/9/09
Last Four In: St. Mary's, UNLV, South Carolina, New Mexico
Last Four Out: Providence, Creighton, Florida, San Diego State
South (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M
5 Syracuse
12 Siena
4 Illinois
13 Northern Iowa
6 Arizona State
11 South Carolina
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Michigan
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Radford
8 Tennessee
9 Dayton
5 Clemson
12 St. Mary's
4 Missouri
13 North Dakota State
6 Xavier
11 Penn State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Brigham Young
10 Boston College
2 Louisville
15 Binghamton
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Cal State-Northridge vs Alabama State
8 Wisconsin
9 Oklahoma State
5 Xavier
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Purdue
11 UNLV
3 Kansas
14 Charleston
7 California
10 Utah State
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Texas
9 Ohio State
5 Gonzaga
12 New Mexico
4 UCLA
13 Weber State
6 Marquette
11 Arizona
3 Wake Forest
14 American
7 LSU
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: Providence, Creighton, Florida, San Diego State
South (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M
5 Syracuse
12 Siena
4 Illinois
13 Northern Iowa
6 Arizona State
11 South Carolina
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Michigan
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Radford
8 Tennessee
9 Dayton
5 Clemson
12 St. Mary's
4 Missouri
13 North Dakota State
6 Xavier
11 Penn State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Brigham Young
10 Boston College
2 Louisville
15 Binghamton
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Cal State-Northridge vs Alabama State
8 Wisconsin
9 Oklahoma State
5 Xavier
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Purdue
11 UNLV
3 Kansas
14 Charleston
7 California
10 Utah State
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Texas
9 Ohio State
5 Gonzaga
12 New Mexico
4 UCLA
13 Weber State
6 Marquette
11 Arizona
3 Wake Forest
14 American
7 LSU
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Projections for 3/7/09
Last Four In: St. Mary's, Arizona, Rhode Island, Maryland
Last Four Out: Providence, Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia Tech
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Radford
8 Utah
9 Oklahoma State
5 Purdue
12 Arizona
4 Florida State
13 Davidson
6 West Virginia
11 Siena
3 Kansas
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 California
10 Ohio State
2 Duke
15 Cornell
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Austin Peay
8 Boston College
9 Texas A&M
5 Gonzaga
12 Utah State
4 Washington
13 Weber State
6 Tennessee
11 Dayton
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Brigham Young
10 Minnesota
2 Oklahoma
15 Jacksonville
South (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 Texas
9 Wisconsin
5 Marquette
12 Rhode Island
4 UCLA
13 Western Kentucky
6 LSU
11 Maryland
3 Missouri
14 North Dakota State
7 Butler
10 Creighton
2 Louisville
15 Binghamton
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Cal State-Northridge vs Alabama State
8 Arizona State
9 Penn State
5 Clemson
12 St. Mary's
4 Xavier
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Illinois
11 South Carolina
3 Wake Forest
14 American
7 Syracuse
10 UNLV
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: Providence, Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia Tech
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Radford
8 Utah
9 Oklahoma State
5 Purdue
12 Arizona
4 Florida State
13 Davidson
6 West Virginia
11 Siena
3 Kansas
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 California
10 Ohio State
2 Duke
15 Cornell
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Austin Peay
8 Boston College
9 Texas A&M
5 Gonzaga
12 Utah State
4 Washington
13 Weber State
6 Tennessee
11 Dayton
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Brigham Young
10 Minnesota
2 Oklahoma
15 Jacksonville
South (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 Texas
9 Wisconsin
5 Marquette
12 Rhode Island
4 UCLA
13 Western Kentucky
6 LSU
11 Maryland
3 Missouri
14 North Dakota State
7 Butler
10 Creighton
2 Louisville
15 Binghamton
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Cal State-Northridge vs Alabama State
8 Arizona State
9 Penn State
5 Clemson
12 St. Mary's
4 Xavier
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Illinois
11 South Carolina
3 Wake Forest
14 American
7 Syracuse
10 UNLV
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Projections for 3/5/09
Last Four In: Penn State, Providence, St. Mary's, Maryland
Last Four Out: Rhode Island, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia Tech
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Radford
8 Tennessee
9 Ohio State
5 Clemson
12 Utah State
4 Xavier
13 Davidson
6 Arizona State
11 Penn State
3 Kansas
14 Weber State
7 Syracuse
10 Creighton
2 Duke
15 Cornell
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Morgan State
8 Texas
9 Boston College
5 Gonzaga
12 Providence
4 Washington
13 Western Kentucky
6 LSU
11 Maryland
3 Villanova
14 Binghamton
7 Brigham Young
10 Minnesota
2 Oklahoma
15 Bowling Green
South (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Jacksonville
8 Wisconsin
9 South Carolina
5 Marquette
12 St. Mary's
4 UCLA
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Purdue
11 Dayton
3 Missouri
14 North Dakota State
7 Butler
10 UNLV
2 Louisville
15 Robert Morris
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Cal State-Northridge vs Alabama State
8 California
9 Oklahoma State
5 Florida State
12 Siena
4 Illinois
13 American
6 West Virginia
11 Texas A&M
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Utah
10 Arizona
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
Last Four Out: Rhode Island, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia Tech
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Radford
8 Tennessee
9 Ohio State
5 Clemson
12 Utah State
4 Xavier
13 Davidson
6 Arizona State
11 Penn State
3 Kansas
14 Weber State
7 Syracuse
10 Creighton
2 Duke
15 Cornell
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Morgan State
8 Texas
9 Boston College
5 Gonzaga
12 Providence
4 Washington
13 Western Kentucky
6 LSU
11 Maryland
3 Villanova
14 Binghamton
7 Brigham Young
10 Minnesota
2 Oklahoma
15 Bowling Green
South (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Jacksonville
8 Wisconsin
9 South Carolina
5 Marquette
12 St. Mary's
4 UCLA
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Purdue
11 Dayton
3 Missouri
14 North Dakota State
7 Butler
10 UNLV
2 Louisville
15 Robert Morris
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Cal State-Northridge vs Alabama State
8 California
9 Oklahoma State
5 Florida State
12 Siena
4 Illinois
13 American
6 West Virginia
11 Texas A&M
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Utah
10 Arizona
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Bubble Breakdown: 3/4/09
The amount of bubble teams that didn't get the job done tonight is just staggering. Here's a rundown of what each team needs to do from here on out:
North Carolina 86, Virginia Tech 78: With this loss, the Hokies are now 7-8 in the ACC and have lost 7 of their last 10. They still have a chance at an at-large, but they absolutely must win @FSU now.
NC State 74, Boston College 69: A hurtful, but not devastating loss for the Eagles. I still think BC will be fine as long as they take care of business against GT on Saturday. With the win they would finish 9-7 in the ACC with victories over UNC, Duke, and FSU.
Ga Tech 78, Miami 68: This loss just about ends Miami's NCAA hopes. Their only chance now is to make it to the ACC finals, and even then they might need the auto-bid to make the field.
Georgia 90, Kentucky 85: This crushing loss may be too much for UK to overcome. The Wildcats need to win @Florida, then get to the conference finals to have a chance now.
Mississippi State 80, Florida 71: Could the SEC really be a 3 bid league? Florida looks to be in the same boat as Kentucky, as a run to the conference finals might be necessary to get an at-large bid.
Minnesota 51, Wisconsin 46: A huge win for the Gophers, as they are now guaranteed a .500 finish in Big 10 play. Add that to their 12-0 nonconference record (which includes a win over Louisville) and Minnesota appears to be in good shape to grab a bid. You listening Lunardi?
Texas A&M 72, Colorado 66: Not exactly a marquee win, but the Aggies have passed alot of bubble teams over the past 3 days by simply not losing. Texas A&M just needs one more win now (either against Mizzou or in the Big 12 tourney) to enter lock status.
UTEP 70, UAB 52: This should end any chance the Blazers had at grabbing an at-large. They must win the C-USA tournament now.
Northwestern 64, Purdue 61: A huge win for the Wildcats. They're still on the outside looking in at this point, but if they win @Ohio State and then win a couple in the Big 10 tournament, who knows.
North Carolina 86, Virginia Tech 78: With this loss, the Hokies are now 7-8 in the ACC and have lost 7 of their last 10. They still have a chance at an at-large, but they absolutely must win @FSU now.
NC State 74, Boston College 69: A hurtful, but not devastating loss for the Eagles. I still think BC will be fine as long as they take care of business against GT on Saturday. With the win they would finish 9-7 in the ACC with victories over UNC, Duke, and FSU.
Ga Tech 78, Miami 68: This loss just about ends Miami's NCAA hopes. Their only chance now is to make it to the ACC finals, and even then they might need the auto-bid to make the field.
Georgia 90, Kentucky 85: This crushing loss may be too much for UK to overcome. The Wildcats need to win @Florida, then get to the conference finals to have a chance now.
Mississippi State 80, Florida 71: Could the SEC really be a 3 bid league? Florida looks to be in the same boat as Kentucky, as a run to the conference finals might be necessary to get an at-large bid.
Minnesota 51, Wisconsin 46: A huge win for the Gophers, as they are now guaranteed a .500 finish in Big 10 play. Add that to their 12-0 nonconference record (which includes a win over Louisville) and Minnesota appears to be in good shape to grab a bid. You listening Lunardi?
Texas A&M 72, Colorado 66: Not exactly a marquee win, but the Aggies have passed alot of bubble teams over the past 3 days by simply not losing. Texas A&M just needs one more win now (either against Mizzou or in the Big 12 tourney) to enter lock status.
UTEP 70, UAB 52: This should end any chance the Blazers had at grabbing an at-large. They must win the C-USA tournament now.
Northwestern 64, Purdue 61: A huge win for the Wildcats. They're still on the outside looking in at this point, but if they win @Ohio State and then win a couple in the Big 10 tournament, who knows.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Bubble Update
Updated through games of 3/3/09.
Projected Automatic Bids
North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Washington, LSU, Utah, Gonzaga, Xavier, Memphis, Butler, Creighton, Siena, Utah State, plus 17 from 1-bid leagues.
Locks (23 teams)
Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Tennessee, Brigham Young
Bubble (19 teams fighting for 11 bids)
Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Maryland, Providence, Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Arizona, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, St. Mary's, Dayton, Rhode Island
Teams on the outside that could still play their way into the discussion
Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Northwestern, Kansas State, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Washington State, Auburn, Temple, UAB
Projected Automatic Bids
North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Washington, LSU, Utah, Gonzaga, Xavier, Memphis, Butler, Creighton, Siena, Utah State, plus 17 from 1-bid leagues.
Locks (23 teams)
Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Tennessee, Brigham Young
Bubble (19 teams fighting for 11 bids)
Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Maryland, Providence, Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Arizona, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, St. Mary's, Dayton, Rhode Island
Teams on the outside that could still play their way into the discussion
Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Northwestern, Kansas State, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Washington State, Auburn, Temple, UAB
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Projections for 3/2/09
Last Four In: Kentucky, Providence, Florida, Maryland
Last Four Out: Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Michigan, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Miami (FL), Notre Dame
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Radford
8 Texas
9 Dayton
5 Clemson
12 Florida
4 Purdue
13 American
6 Gonzaga
11 Penn State
3 Villanova
14 Binghamton
7 California
10 Oklahoma State
2 Duke
15 Bowling Green
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Jacksonville
8 Brigham Young
9 South Carolina
5 Florida State
12 Providence
4 Illinois
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 UCLA
11 Maryland
3 Missouri
14 North Dakota State
7 West Virginia
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 Tennessee
9 UNLV
5 Xavier
12 Siena
4 Marquette
13 Davidson
6 Butler
11 Creighton
3 Kansas
14 Weber State
7 Arizona State
10 Ohio State
2 Louisville
15 Cornell
South (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Cal State-Northridge vs. Alabama State
8 Boston College
9 Wisconsin
5 LSU
12 Utah State
4 Washington
13 Western Kentucky
6 Syracuse
11 Kentucky
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Utah
10 Arizona
2 Michigan State
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Michigan, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Miami (FL), Notre Dame
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Radford
8 Texas
9 Dayton
5 Clemson
12 Florida
4 Purdue
13 American
6 Gonzaga
11 Penn State
3 Villanova
14 Binghamton
7 California
10 Oklahoma State
2 Duke
15 Bowling Green
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Jacksonville
8 Brigham Young
9 South Carolina
5 Florida State
12 Providence
4 Illinois
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 UCLA
11 Maryland
3 Missouri
14 North Dakota State
7 West Virginia
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 Tennessee
9 UNLV
5 Xavier
12 Siena
4 Marquette
13 Davidson
6 Butler
11 Creighton
3 Kansas
14 Weber State
7 Arizona State
10 Ohio State
2 Louisville
15 Cornell
South (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Cal State-Northridge vs. Alabama State
8 Boston College
9 Wisconsin
5 LSU
12 Utah State
4 Washington
13 Western Kentucky
6 Syracuse
11 Kentucky
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Utah
10 Arizona
2 Michigan State
15 Robert Morris
Friday, February 27, 2009
Projections for 2/27/09
Last Four In: Michigan, Virginia Tech, UNLV, Dayton
Last Four Out: Texas A&M, Providence, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Maryland, Miami (FL), St. Mary's, Kansas State
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Robert Morris
8 Ohio State
9 Tennessee
5 Xavier
12 Virginia Tech
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
6 Butler
11 Cincinnati
3 Wake Forest
14 American
7 Texas
10 Utah State
2 Michigan State
15 Belmont
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Radford
8 West Virginia
9 Minnesota
5 Gonzaga
12 Dayton
4 Clemson
13 Davidson
6 Florida State
11 Michigan
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 California
10 Brigham Young
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 South Carolina
9 Arizona
5 Purdue
12 UNLV
4 Marquette
13 Western Kentucky
6 Utah
11 Kentucky
3 Kansas
14 Weber State
7 UCLA
10 Wisconsin
2 Louisville
15 Binghamton
South (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Long Beach State vs. Alabama State
8 Boston College
9 Florida
5 Arizona State
12 Creighton
4 Illinois
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 LSU
11 Penn State
3 Missouri
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Syracuse
10 Siena
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Last Four Out: Texas A&M, Providence, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Maryland, Miami (FL), St. Mary's, Kansas State
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Robert Morris
8 Ohio State
9 Tennessee
5 Xavier
12 Virginia Tech
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
6 Butler
11 Cincinnati
3 Wake Forest
14 American
7 Texas
10 Utah State
2 Michigan State
15 Belmont
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Radford
8 West Virginia
9 Minnesota
5 Gonzaga
12 Dayton
4 Clemson
13 Davidson
6 Florida State
11 Michigan
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 California
10 Brigham Young
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 South Carolina
9 Arizona
5 Purdue
12 UNLV
4 Marquette
13 Western Kentucky
6 Utah
11 Kentucky
3 Kansas
14 Weber State
7 UCLA
10 Wisconsin
2 Louisville
15 Binghamton
South (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Long Beach State vs. Alabama State
8 Boston College
9 Florida
5 Arizona State
12 Creighton
4 Illinois
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 LSU
11 Penn State
3 Missouri
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Syracuse
10 Siena
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Monday, February 23, 2009
Projections for 2/23/09
Last Four In: Maryland, Cincinnati, Kansas State, UNLV
Last Four Out: Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Michigan, St. Mary's
Next Four Out: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Southern Cal, Miami (FL)
East (#1 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Long Beach State vs. Alabama State
8 Florida
9 Ohio State
5 Florida State
12 UNLV
4 Kansas
13 Western Kentucky
6 Xavier
11 Tennessee
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 California
10 Brigham Young
2 Duke
15 Tennessee-Martin
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Jacksonville
8 Arizona
9 Boston College
5 Gonzaga
12 Cincinnati
4 Purdue
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 LSU
11 Maryland
3 Marquette
14 Vermont
7 UCLA
10 Wisconsin
2 Memphis
15 Weber State
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morgan State
8 Minnesota
9 South Carolina
5 Washington
12 Creighton
4 Missouri
13 Davidson
6 West Virginia
11 Siena
3 Wake Forest
14 American
7 Utah
10 Kentucky
2 Michigan State
15 Cornell
South (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Syracuse
9 Dayton
5 Illinois
12 Kansas State
4 Arizona State
13 North Dakota State
6 Texas
11 Utah State
3 Clemson
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Butler
10 Penn State
2 Louisville
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Michigan, St. Mary's
Next Four Out: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Southern Cal, Miami (FL)
East (#1 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Long Beach State vs. Alabama State
8 Florida
9 Ohio State
5 Florida State
12 UNLV
4 Kansas
13 Western Kentucky
6 Xavier
11 Tennessee
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 California
10 Brigham Young
2 Duke
15 Tennessee-Martin
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Jacksonville
8 Arizona
9 Boston College
5 Gonzaga
12 Cincinnati
4 Purdue
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 LSU
11 Maryland
3 Marquette
14 Vermont
7 UCLA
10 Wisconsin
2 Memphis
15 Weber State
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morgan State
8 Minnesota
9 South Carolina
5 Washington
12 Creighton
4 Missouri
13 Davidson
6 West Virginia
11 Siena
3 Wake Forest
14 American
7 Utah
10 Kentucky
2 Michigan State
15 Cornell
South (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Syracuse
9 Dayton
5 Illinois
12 Kansas State
4 Arizona State
13 North Dakota State
6 Texas
11 Utah State
3 Clemson
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Butler
10 Penn State
2 Louisville
15 Robert Morris
Friday, February 20, 2009
Projections for 2/20/09
Last Four In: Michigan, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Kentucky
Last Four Out: Virginia Tech, Southern Cal, Providence, UNLV
Next Four Out: Texas A&M, UAB, Miami (FL), Georgetown
South (#1 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Radford
8 Boston College
9 Florida
5 UCLA
12 Cincinnati
4 Purdue
13 Buffalo
6 Xavier
11 Siena
3 Villanova
14 Cornell
7 Butler
10 Minnesota
2 Wake Forest
15 Belmont
West (#4 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Robert Morris
8 Ohio State
9 Texas
5 Gonzaga
12 Kentucky
4 Clemson
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Washington
11 San Diego State
3 Marquette
14 North Dakota State
7 LSU
10 Utah State
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 Wisconsin
9 Dayton
5 West Virginia
12 Kansas State
4 Arizona State
13 Creighton
6 Florida State
11 Michigan
3 Missouri
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Utah
10 Tennessee
2 Louisville
15 Weber State
East (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Long Beach State vs. Alabama State
8 Arizona
9 Brigham Young
5 Illinois
12 Davidson
4 Kansas
13 Western Kentucky
6 Syracuse
11 Penn State
3 Duke
14 American
7 California
10 South Carolina
2 Michigan State
15 Vermont
Last Four Out: Virginia Tech, Southern Cal, Providence, UNLV
Next Four Out: Texas A&M, UAB, Miami (FL), Georgetown
South (#1 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Radford
8 Boston College
9 Florida
5 UCLA
12 Cincinnati
4 Purdue
13 Buffalo
6 Xavier
11 Siena
3 Villanova
14 Cornell
7 Butler
10 Minnesota
2 Wake Forest
15 Belmont
West (#4 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Robert Morris
8 Ohio State
9 Texas
5 Gonzaga
12 Kentucky
4 Clemson
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Washington
11 San Diego State
3 Marquette
14 North Dakota State
7 LSU
10 Utah State
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 Wisconsin
9 Dayton
5 West Virginia
12 Kansas State
4 Arizona State
13 Creighton
6 Florida State
11 Michigan
3 Missouri
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Utah
10 Tennessee
2 Louisville
15 Weber State
East (#3 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Long Beach State vs. Alabama State
8 Arizona
9 Brigham Young
5 Illinois
12 Davidson
4 Kansas
13 Western Kentucky
6 Syracuse
11 Penn State
3 Duke
14 American
7 California
10 South Carolina
2 Michigan State
15 Vermont
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Breaking Down the Conferences: ACC
This will be the first in a series of posts made with the intention of forecasting each team's tournament prospects.
Locks
North Carolina- as expected, the Tar Heels are looking like a national title contender and are in the running for the #1 overall seed. The remainder of their schedule is relatively soft (@Maryland, GTech, @Va Tech, Duke), and it's difficult to see UNC losing more than one of those games.
Seed Range: 1
Wake Forest- after a few inexplicable losses, the Demon Deacons appear to be back on track, with consecutive blowout victories over FSU and GTech. The remaining games @Duke, @Maryland, and home vs Clemson will go a long way toward deciding their final seed.
Seed Range: 2-4
Clemson- in addition to the home blowout against Duke, the Tigers have shown they can win on the road, with wins at Illinois, Miami, South Carolina, Boston College, and Virginia Tech. Add to that a managable remaining schedule (@GTech, Va Tech, @FSU, Virginia, @Wake Forest), and Clemson is likely looking at a high seed come Selection Sunday.
Seed Range: 2-5
Duke- the Blue Devils have lost 4 of 6 after starting the year 18-1. While they aren't in any danger of falling out of the tournament, Duke has a tough final stretch (Wake Forest, @Maryland, @Va Tech, FSU, @UNC) and could suffer a major hit in seeding if they don't win at least 3 of their last 5.
Seed Range: 3-7
Should Be In
Florida State- it looks like Leonard Hamilton is finally going to get the Seminoles into the Big Dance this year. They aren't a lock yet because of a tough last five games (@Va Tech, @Boston College, Clemson, @Duke, Va Tech), but they should make it barring a complete collapse.
Seed Range: 6-10
Boston College- the Eagles appear to be closing in on a bid, with 4 winnable games left on the schedule (@Miami, FSU, @NC State, GTech). The bad OOC losses to Harvard and St. Louis may hurt their seeding, but the wins against Duke and North Carolina make it unlikely they'll miss the tournament.
Seed Range: 7-11
Bubble
Virginia Tech- the recent losses @Maryland and @Virginia could come back to haunt the Hokies. A brutal last five games (FSU, @Clemson, Duke, UNC, @FSU) will make or break their season.
Prediction: NIT
Miami- the 'Canes let two major opportunities slip away against Duke and UNC, and are now 4-8 in the ACC. Miami's remaining schedule is soft (Boston College, @Virginia, @GTech, NC State), but 1 more regular season loss likely sends them to the NIT.
Prediction: NCAA
Maryland- the remaining schedule keeps the Terps' hopes alive (home games against UNC, Duke, and Wake Forest, road games @NC State and Virginia), but an NCAA bid seems unlikely at this point.
Prediction: NIT
Locks
North Carolina- as expected, the Tar Heels are looking like a national title contender and are in the running for the #1 overall seed. The remainder of their schedule is relatively soft (@Maryland, GTech, @Va Tech, Duke), and it's difficult to see UNC losing more than one of those games.
Seed Range: 1
Wake Forest- after a few inexplicable losses, the Demon Deacons appear to be back on track, with consecutive blowout victories over FSU and GTech. The remaining games @Duke, @Maryland, and home vs Clemson will go a long way toward deciding their final seed.
Seed Range: 2-4
Clemson- in addition to the home blowout against Duke, the Tigers have shown they can win on the road, with wins at Illinois, Miami, South Carolina, Boston College, and Virginia Tech. Add to that a managable remaining schedule (@GTech, Va Tech, @FSU, Virginia, @Wake Forest), and Clemson is likely looking at a high seed come Selection Sunday.
Seed Range: 2-5
Duke- the Blue Devils have lost 4 of 6 after starting the year 18-1. While they aren't in any danger of falling out of the tournament, Duke has a tough final stretch (Wake Forest, @Maryland, @Va Tech, FSU, @UNC) and could suffer a major hit in seeding if they don't win at least 3 of their last 5.
Seed Range: 3-7
Should Be In
Florida State- it looks like Leonard Hamilton is finally going to get the Seminoles into the Big Dance this year. They aren't a lock yet because of a tough last five games (@Va Tech, @Boston College, Clemson, @Duke, Va Tech), but they should make it barring a complete collapse.
Seed Range: 6-10
Boston College- the Eagles appear to be closing in on a bid, with 4 winnable games left on the schedule (@Miami, FSU, @NC State, GTech). The bad OOC losses to Harvard and St. Louis may hurt their seeding, but the wins against Duke and North Carolina make it unlikely they'll miss the tournament.
Seed Range: 7-11
Bubble
Virginia Tech- the recent losses @Maryland and @Virginia could come back to haunt the Hokies. A brutal last five games (FSU, @Clemson, Duke, UNC, @FSU) will make or break their season.
Prediction: NIT
Miami- the 'Canes let two major opportunities slip away against Duke and UNC, and are now 4-8 in the ACC. Miami's remaining schedule is soft (Boston College, @Virginia, @GTech, NC State), but 1 more regular season loss likely sends them to the NIT.
Prediction: NCAA
Maryland- the remaining schedule keeps the Terps' hopes alive (home games against UNC, Duke, and Wake Forest, road games @NC State and Virginia), but an NCAA bid seems unlikely at this point.
Prediction: NIT
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Projections for 2/16/09
Last Four In: San Diego State, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Brigham Young
Last Four Out: Southern Cal, Penn State, Providence, Miami (FL)
Next Four Out: Michigan, UAB, Maryland, Creighton
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Radford vs. Alabama State
8 Tennessee
9 Dayton
5 Arizona State
12 San Diego State
4 Clemson
13 Arkansas-Little Rock
6 Florida State
11 Davidson
3 Missouri
14 Weber State
7 Syracuse
10 Kentucky
2 Michigan State
15 Vermont
West (#4 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Morgan State
8 Minnesota
9 Boston College
5 Washington
12 Brigham Young
4 Kansas
13 Northern Iowa
6 West Virginia
11 Siena
3 Duke
14 American
7 LSU
10 Arizona
2 Memphis
15 Sam Houston State
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 South Carolina
5 Purdue
12 Cincinnati
4 Xavier
13 Buffalo
6 Ohio State
11 UNLV
3 Wake Forest
14 Cornell
7 California
10 Utah State
2 Marquette
15 Robert Morris
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Jacksonville
8 Utah
9 Wisconsin
5 Gonzaga
12 Kansas State
4 Villanova
13 Northeastern
6 UCLA
11 Virginia Tech
3 Illinois
14 North Dakota State
7 Texas
10 Florida
2 Louisville
15 Tennessee-Martin
Last Four Out: Southern Cal, Penn State, Providence, Miami (FL)
Next Four Out: Michigan, UAB, Maryland, Creighton
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Radford vs. Alabama State
8 Tennessee
9 Dayton
5 Arizona State
12 San Diego State
4 Clemson
13 Arkansas-Little Rock
6 Florida State
11 Davidson
3 Missouri
14 Weber State
7 Syracuse
10 Kentucky
2 Michigan State
15 Vermont
West (#4 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Morgan State
8 Minnesota
9 Boston College
5 Washington
12 Brigham Young
4 Kansas
13 Northern Iowa
6 West Virginia
11 Siena
3 Duke
14 American
7 LSU
10 Arizona
2 Memphis
15 Sam Houston State
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 South Carolina
5 Purdue
12 Cincinnati
4 Xavier
13 Buffalo
6 Ohio State
11 UNLV
3 Wake Forest
14 Cornell
7 California
10 Utah State
2 Marquette
15 Robert Morris
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Jacksonville
8 Utah
9 Wisconsin
5 Gonzaga
12 Kansas State
4 Villanova
13 Northeastern
6 UCLA
11 Virginia Tech
3 Illinois
14 North Dakota State
7 Texas
10 Florida
2 Louisville
15 Tennessee-Martin
Friday, February 13, 2009
Projections for 2/13/09
Last Four In: Southern Cal, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Miami (FL)
Last Four Out: UNLV, Brigham Young, Providence, Georgetown
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, UAB
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Alabama State vs Princeton
8 Florida
9 Virginia Tech
5 Xavier
12 Siena
4 Kansas
13 Western Kentucky
6 Syracuse
11 Kentucky
3 Duke
14 Virginia Military
7 California
10 San Diego State
2 Michigan State
15 Weber State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Morgan State
8 Texas
9 Dayton
5 Ohio State
12 Southern Cal
4 Wake Forest
13 Northeastern
6 Washington
11 Wisconsin
3 Marquette
14 North Dakota State
7 Florida State
10 South Carolina
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 West Virginia
9 Utah
5 Gonzaga
12 Miami (FL)
4 UCLA
13 Northern Iowa
6 Purdue
11 Kansas State
3 Louisville
14 Vermont
7 LSU
10 Arizona
2 Clemson
15 American
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
8 Utah State
9 Tennessee
5 Butler
12 Cincinnati
4 Illinois
13 Buffalo
6 Arizona State
11 Boston College
3 Missouri
14 East Tennessee State
7 Minnesota
10 Davidson
2 Villanova
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: UNLV, Brigham Young, Providence, Georgetown
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, UAB
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Alabama State vs Princeton
8 Florida
9 Virginia Tech
5 Xavier
12 Siena
4 Kansas
13 Western Kentucky
6 Syracuse
11 Kentucky
3 Duke
14 Virginia Military
7 California
10 San Diego State
2 Michigan State
15 Weber State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Morgan State
8 Texas
9 Dayton
5 Ohio State
12 Southern Cal
4 Wake Forest
13 Northeastern
6 Washington
11 Wisconsin
3 Marquette
14 North Dakota State
7 Florida State
10 South Carolina
2 Memphis
15 Tennessee-Martin
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 West Virginia
9 Utah
5 Gonzaga
12 Miami (FL)
4 UCLA
13 Northern Iowa
6 Purdue
11 Kansas State
3 Louisville
14 Vermont
7 LSU
10 Arizona
2 Clemson
15 American
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
8 Utah State
9 Tennessee
5 Butler
12 Cincinnati
4 Illinois
13 Buffalo
6 Arizona State
11 Boston College
3 Missouri
14 East Tennessee State
7 Minnesota
10 Davidson
2 Villanova
15 Robert Morris
Monday, February 9, 2009
Projections for 2/9/09
Last Four In: Wisconsin, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Miami (FL)
Last Four Out: UNLV, Michigan, Georgetown, Texas A&M
Next Four Out: Penn State, Brigham Young, Mississippi State, Nebraska
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Alabama State vs Princeton
8 Texas
9 Tennessee
5 Gonzaga
12 Miami (FL)
4 Xavier
13 Northeastern
6 Missouri
11 Cincinnati
3 Clemson
14 Virginia Military
7 California
10 Utah
2 Michigan State
15 Weber State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Boston University
8 Florida
9 Boston College
5 Illinois
12 Arizona
4 Kansas
13 Western Kentucky
6 Minnesota
11 San Diego State
3 UCLA
14 Tennessee-Martin
7 West Virginia
10 South Carolina
2 Duke
15 Sam Houston State
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Long Beach State
8 Utah State
9 Virginia Tech
5 Syracuse
12 Siena
4 Butler
13 Northern Iowa
6 Purdue
11 Kentucky
3 Marquette
14 North Dakota State
7 Arizona State
10 Davidson
2 Wake Forest
15 American
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 LSU
9 Southern Cal
5 Ohio State
12 Kansas State
4 Villanova
13 Buffalo
6 Washington
11 Wisconsin
3 Memphis
14 East Tennessee State
7 Florida State
10 Dayton
2 Louisville
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: UNLV, Michigan, Georgetown, Texas A&M
Next Four Out: Penn State, Brigham Young, Mississippi State, Nebraska
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Alabama State vs Princeton
8 Texas
9 Tennessee
5 Gonzaga
12 Miami (FL)
4 Xavier
13 Northeastern
6 Missouri
11 Cincinnati
3 Clemson
14 Virginia Military
7 California
10 Utah
2 Michigan State
15 Weber State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Boston University
8 Florida
9 Boston College
5 Illinois
12 Arizona
4 Kansas
13 Western Kentucky
6 Minnesota
11 San Diego State
3 UCLA
14 Tennessee-Martin
7 West Virginia
10 South Carolina
2 Duke
15 Sam Houston State
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Long Beach State
8 Utah State
9 Virginia Tech
5 Syracuse
12 Siena
4 Butler
13 Northern Iowa
6 Purdue
11 Kentucky
3 Marquette
14 North Dakota State
7 Arizona State
10 Davidson
2 Wake Forest
15 American
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 LSU
9 Southern Cal
5 Ohio State
12 Kansas State
4 Villanova
13 Buffalo
6 Washington
11 Wisconsin
3 Memphis
14 East Tennessee State
7 Florida State
10 Dayton
2 Louisville
15 Robert Morris
Friday, February 6, 2009
Projections for 2/6/09
Last Four In: Utah, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)
Last Four Out: Kentucky, Arizona, St. Mary's, Baylor
Next Four Out: Brigham Young, Northwestern, Providence, Cincinnati
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Boston University
8 Florida
9 Boston College
5 Minnesota
12 San Diego State
4 Gonzaga
13 Northern Iowa
6 Ohio State
11 Texas A&M
3 Memphis
14 East Tennessee State
7 Washington
10 Georgetown
2 Clemson
15 Robert Morris
West (#4 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Morgan State
8 Davidson
9 UNLV
5 Kansas
12 Miami (FL)
4 UCLA
13 Western Kentucky
6 West Virginia
11 Southern Cal
3 Michigan State
14 Cornell
7 Texas
10 South Carolina
2 Duke
15 American
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Long Beach State
8 Florida State
9 California
5 Purdue
12 Siena
4 Villanova
13 Northeastern
6 Missouri
11 Utah
3 Wake Forest
14 Virginia Military
7 Tennessee
10 Penn State
2 Marquette
15 Weber State
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morehead State vs Alabama State
8 LSU
9 Utah State
5 Syracuse
12 Michigan
4 Butler
13 Buffalo
6 Illinois
11 Virginia Tech
3 Xavier
14 North Dakota State
7 Arizona State
10 Dayton
2 Louisville
15 Sam Houston State
Last Four Out: Kentucky, Arizona, St. Mary's, Baylor
Next Four Out: Brigham Young, Northwestern, Providence, Cincinnati
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Boston University
8 Florida
9 Boston College
5 Minnesota
12 San Diego State
4 Gonzaga
13 Northern Iowa
6 Ohio State
11 Texas A&M
3 Memphis
14 East Tennessee State
7 Washington
10 Georgetown
2 Clemson
15 Robert Morris
West (#4 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Morgan State
8 Davidson
9 UNLV
5 Kansas
12 Miami (FL)
4 UCLA
13 Western Kentucky
6 West Virginia
11 Southern Cal
3 Michigan State
14 Cornell
7 Texas
10 South Carolina
2 Duke
15 American
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Long Beach State
8 Florida State
9 California
5 Purdue
12 Siena
4 Villanova
13 Northeastern
6 Missouri
11 Utah
3 Wake Forest
14 Virginia Military
7 Tennessee
10 Penn State
2 Marquette
15 Weber State
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morehead State vs Alabama State
8 LSU
9 Utah State
5 Syracuse
12 Michigan
4 Butler
13 Buffalo
6 Illinois
11 Virginia Tech
3 Xavier
14 North Dakota State
7 Arizona State
10 Dayton
2 Louisville
15 Sam Houston State
Monday, February 2, 2009
Projections for 2/2/09
Starting this week, I will be doing bracket projections every Monday and Friday.
Last Four In: Baylor, Michigan, Utah, St. Mary's
Last Four Out: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Arizona, Providence
Next Four Out: Brigham Young, Miami (FL), Washington State, Oklahoma State
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Robert Morris
8 Florida
9 Utah State
5 Kansas
12 St. Mary's
4 Minnesota
13 Northern Iowa
6 Syracuse
11 Texas A&M
3 Butler
14 Northeastern
7 Penn State
10 Southern Cal
2 Wake Forest
15 American
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 LSU
9 Georgetown
5 Texas
12 Utah
4 Michigan State
13 Buffalo
6 Washington
11 Kentucky
3 Xavier
14 Cornell
7 Ohio State
10 Boston College
2 Louisville
15 Weber State
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Morehead State vs. Alabama State
8 West Virginia
9 Florida State
5 UCLA
12 Siena
4 Gonzaga
13 Western Kentucky
6 Illinois
11 California
3 Clemson
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 UNLV
10 South Carolina
2 Pittsburgh
15 North Dakota State
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Jacksonville
8 Missouri
9 Tennessee
5 Villanova
12 Michigan
4 Memphis
13 Virginia Military
6 Davidson
11 Baylor
3 Purdue
14 Vermont
7 Arizona State
10 Dayton
2 Marquette
15 Long Beach State
Last Four In: Baylor, Michigan, Utah, St. Mary's
Last Four Out: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Arizona, Providence
Next Four Out: Brigham Young, Miami (FL), Washington State, Oklahoma State
East (#1 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Robert Morris
8 Florida
9 Utah State
5 Kansas
12 St. Mary's
4 Minnesota
13 Northern Iowa
6 Syracuse
11 Texas A&M
3 Butler
14 Northeastern
7 Penn State
10 Southern Cal
2 Wake Forest
15 American
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State
8 LSU
9 Georgetown
5 Texas
12 Utah
4 Michigan State
13 Buffalo
6 Washington
11 Kentucky
3 Xavier
14 Cornell
7 Ohio State
10 Boston College
2 Louisville
15 Weber State
South (#2 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Morehead State vs. Alabama State
8 West Virginia
9 Florida State
5 UCLA
12 Siena
4 Gonzaga
13 Western Kentucky
6 Illinois
11 California
3 Clemson
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 UNLV
10 South Carolina
2 Pittsburgh
15 North Dakota State
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Jacksonville
8 Missouri
9 Tennessee
5 Villanova
12 Michigan
4 Memphis
13 Virginia Military
6 Davidson
11 Baylor
3 Purdue
14 Vermont
7 Arizona State
10 Dayton
2 Marquette
15 Long Beach State
Monday, January 26, 2009
Projections for 1/26/09
Last Four In: Brigham Young, Miami (FL), Southern Cal, LSU
Last Four Out: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Utah, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Providence, Mississippi State, San Diego State
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Morgan State
8 California
9 Kentucky
5 West Virginia
12 Siena
4 Butler
13 Western Kentucky
6 Washington
11 Virginia Tech
3 Michigan State
14 Cornell
7 Kansas
10 Utah State
2 Louisville
15 North Dakota State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Austin Peay
8 Florida
9 Villanova
5 Purdue
12 Southern Cal
4 Gonzaga
13 Northern Iowa
6 UCLA
11 Ohio State
3 Clemson
14 Virginia Military
7 Baylor
10 UNLV
2 Pittsburgh
15 American
East (#2 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Texas A&M C.C. vs. Alabama State
8 Michigan
9 Missouri
5 Arizona State
12 Miami (FL)
4 Memphis
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Georgetown
11 Brigham Young
3 Xavier
14 East Tennessee State
7 Tennessee
10 Penn State
2 North Carolina
15 Binghamton
South (#3 Overall)
1 Wake Forest
16 Robert Morris
8 Notre Dame
9 St. Mary's
5 Illinois
12 LSU
4 Syracuse
13 Buffalo
6 Minnesota
11 Dayton
3 Texas
14 Portland State
7 Davidson
10 Florida State
2 Marquette
15 Long Beach State
Last Four Out: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Utah, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Providence, Mississippi State, San Diego State
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Morgan State
8 California
9 Kentucky
5 West Virginia
12 Siena
4 Butler
13 Western Kentucky
6 Washington
11 Virginia Tech
3 Michigan State
14 Cornell
7 Kansas
10 Utah State
2 Louisville
15 North Dakota State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Austin Peay
8 Florida
9 Villanova
5 Purdue
12 Southern Cal
4 Gonzaga
13 Northern Iowa
6 UCLA
11 Ohio State
3 Clemson
14 Virginia Military
7 Baylor
10 UNLV
2 Pittsburgh
15 American
East (#2 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Texas A&M C.C. vs. Alabama State
8 Michigan
9 Missouri
5 Arizona State
12 Miami (FL)
4 Memphis
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Georgetown
11 Brigham Young
3 Xavier
14 East Tennessee State
7 Tennessee
10 Penn State
2 North Carolina
15 Binghamton
South (#3 Overall)
1 Wake Forest
16 Robert Morris
8 Notre Dame
9 St. Mary's
5 Illinois
12 LSU
4 Syracuse
13 Buffalo
6 Minnesota
11 Dayton
3 Texas
14 Portland State
7 Davidson
10 Florida State
2 Marquette
15 Long Beach State
Monday, January 19, 2009
Projections for 1/20/09
Last Four In: UNLV, Oklahoma State, Southern Cal, Utah
Last Four Out: Penn State, LSU, Texas A&M, Stanford
Next Four Out: Maryland, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Providence
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Wake Forest
16 American
8 Michigan
9 Brigham Young
5 Arizona State
12 Oklahoma State
4 Louisville
13 Miami (OH)
6 Purdue
11 Dayton
3 Texas
14 Portland State
7 Davidson
10 Kentucky
2 Georgetown
15 North Dakota State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Austin Peay
8 West Virginia
9 St. Mary's
5 Minnesota
12 Utah
4 UCLA
13 Northern Iowa
6 Florida
11 Utah State
3 Clemson
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Ohio State
10 Missouri
2 Pittsburgh
15 Albany
South (#2 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Hampton
8 Illinois
9 Villanova
5 Memphis
12 Siena
4 Marquette
13 Western Kentucky
6 Kansas
11 UNLV
3 Syracuse
14 Virginia Military
7 California
10 Miami (FL)
2 Michigan State
15 Long Beach State
East (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Robert Morris vs. Prairie View A&M
8 Baylor
9 Florida State
5 Gonzaga
12 Southern Cal
4 Butler
13 George Mason
6 Notre Dame
11 Washington
3 Xavier
14 Cornell
7 Tennessee
10 Wisconsin
2 North Carolina
15 East Tennessee State
Last Four Out: Penn State, LSU, Texas A&M, Stanford
Next Four Out: Maryland, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Providence
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 Wake Forest
16 American
8 Michigan
9 Brigham Young
5 Arizona State
12 Oklahoma State
4 Louisville
13 Miami (OH)
6 Purdue
11 Dayton
3 Texas
14 Portland State
7 Davidson
10 Kentucky
2 Georgetown
15 North Dakota State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Oklahoma
16 Austin Peay
8 West Virginia
9 St. Mary's
5 Minnesota
12 Utah
4 UCLA
13 Northern Iowa
6 Florida
11 Utah State
3 Clemson
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Ohio State
10 Missouri
2 Pittsburgh
15 Albany
South (#2 Overall)
1 Duke
16 Hampton
8 Illinois
9 Villanova
5 Memphis
12 Siena
4 Marquette
13 Western Kentucky
6 Kansas
11 UNLV
3 Syracuse
14 Virginia Military
7 California
10 Miami (FL)
2 Michigan State
15 Long Beach State
East (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Robert Morris vs. Prairie View A&M
8 Baylor
9 Florida State
5 Gonzaga
12 Southern Cal
4 Butler
13 George Mason
6 Notre Dame
11 Washington
3 Xavier
14 Cornell
7 Tennessee
10 Wisconsin
2 North Carolina
15 East Tennessee State
Monday, January 12, 2009
Projections for 1/12/09
Now that conference play has started the tournament field is beginning to take shape. From now on there shouldn't be as much erratic movement from week-to-week.
Last Four In: Washington, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Dayton
Last Four Out: Missouri, Penn State, Boston College, Arizona
Next Four Out: San Diego State, South Carolina, Providence, Alabama
East (#1 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Robert Morris vs. Prairie View A&M
8 Kansas
9 St. Mary's
5 Michigan
12 Florida State
4 Xavier
13 George Mason
6 Tennessee
11 Washington
3 Clemson
14 Virginia Military
7 West Virginia
10 Texas A&M
2 Michigan State
15 Cornell
South (#4 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Austin Peay
8 Davidson
9 Brigham Young
5 Butler
12 Oklahoma State
4 Minnesota
13 Middle Tennessee State
6 Louisville
11 Utah State
3 UCLA
14 Portland State
7 Baylor
10 Arkansas
2 North Carolina
15 Binghamton
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 Wake Forest
16 Hampton
8 Ohio State
9 Florida
5 California
12 Drake
4 Marquette
13 Miami (OH)
6 Purdue
11 UNLV
3 Texas
14 East Tennessee State
7 Memphis
10 Miami (FL)
2 Syracuse
15 North Dakota State
West (#3 Overall)
1 Duke
16 American
8 Wisconsin
9 Villanova
5 Arizona State
12 Dayton
4 Notre Dame
13 Siena
6 Gonzaga
11 Kentucky
3 Georgetown
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Illinois
10 Maryland
2 Oklahoma
15 Long Beach State
Last Four In: Washington, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Dayton
Last Four Out: Missouri, Penn State, Boston College, Arizona
Next Four Out: San Diego State, South Carolina, Providence, Alabama
East (#1 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Robert Morris vs. Prairie View A&M
8 Kansas
9 St. Mary's
5 Michigan
12 Florida State
4 Xavier
13 George Mason
6 Tennessee
11 Washington
3 Clemson
14 Virginia Military
7 West Virginia
10 Texas A&M
2 Michigan State
15 Cornell
South (#4 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Austin Peay
8 Davidson
9 Brigham Young
5 Butler
12 Oklahoma State
4 Minnesota
13 Middle Tennessee State
6 Louisville
11 Utah State
3 UCLA
14 Portland State
7 Baylor
10 Arkansas
2 North Carolina
15 Binghamton
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 Wake Forest
16 Hampton
8 Ohio State
9 Florida
5 California
12 Drake
4 Marquette
13 Miami (OH)
6 Purdue
11 UNLV
3 Texas
14 East Tennessee State
7 Memphis
10 Miami (FL)
2 Syracuse
15 North Dakota State
West (#3 Overall)
1 Duke
16 American
8 Wisconsin
9 Villanova
5 Arizona State
12 Dayton
4 Notre Dame
13 Siena
6 Gonzaga
11 Kentucky
3 Georgetown
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Illinois
10 Maryland
2 Oklahoma
15 Long Beach State
Monday, January 5, 2009
Projections for 1/5/09
In addition to being my first projections in 2009, this is also the first projection where I have completely thrown out the preseason predictions and am going solely on regular season results.
Last Four In: Florida State, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky
Last Four Out: Washington, LSU, Stanford, Creighton
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Arizona, Rhode Island
East (#1 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Play-in Game
8 Florida
9 Boston College
5 Baylor
12 California
4 Purdue
13 George Mason
6 Marquette
11 Illinois State
3 Clemson
14 Virginia Military
7 Michigan
10 St. Mary's
2 Texas
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Duke
16 American
8 Illinois
9 UNLV
5 West Virginia
12 Missouri
4 Xavier
13 Western Kentucky
6 Louisville
11 Arkansas
3 UCLA
14 Portland State
7 Ohio State
10 Miami (FL)
2 Oklahoma
15 Pacific
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Hampton
8 Villanova
9 Gonzaga
5 Butler
12 Kentucky
4 Notre Dame
13 Siena
6 Davidson
11 Florida State
3 Michigan State
14 Vermont
7 Kansas
10 Brigham Young
2 Georgetown
15 Cornell
South (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Wisconsin
9 Maryland
5 Tennessee
12 Utah State
4 Memphis
13 Miami (OH)
6 Minnesota
11 Dayton
3 Syracuse
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Arizona State
10 Texas A&M
2 Wake Forest
15 Oakland
Play-in Game: Robert Morris vs. Prairie View A&M
A couple notes: I had California as a 9 seed but had to move them down because of bracket constraints. I also had West Virginia as a 7 but needed another Big East team on the 5 line to fit the bracket requirements and felt they had a stronger resume than Marquette, Louisville, and Villanova.
Last Four In: Florida State, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky
Last Four Out: Washington, LSU, Stanford, Creighton
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Arizona, Rhode Island
East (#1 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Play-in Game
8 Florida
9 Boston College
5 Baylor
12 California
4 Purdue
13 George Mason
6 Marquette
11 Illinois State
3 Clemson
14 Virginia Military
7 Michigan
10 St. Mary's
2 Texas
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Duke
16 American
8 Illinois
9 UNLV
5 West Virginia
12 Missouri
4 Xavier
13 Western Kentucky
6 Louisville
11 Arkansas
3 UCLA
14 Portland State
7 Ohio State
10 Miami (FL)
2 Oklahoma
15 Pacific
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Hampton
8 Villanova
9 Gonzaga
5 Butler
12 Kentucky
4 Notre Dame
13 Siena
6 Davidson
11 Florida State
3 Michigan State
14 Vermont
7 Kansas
10 Brigham Young
2 Georgetown
15 Cornell
South (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Wisconsin
9 Maryland
5 Tennessee
12 Utah State
4 Memphis
13 Miami (OH)
6 Minnesota
11 Dayton
3 Syracuse
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Arizona State
10 Texas A&M
2 Wake Forest
15 Oakland
Play-in Game: Robert Morris vs. Prairie View A&M
A couple notes: I had California as a 9 seed but had to move them down because of bracket constraints. I also had West Virginia as a 7 but needed another Big East team on the 5 line to fit the bracket requirements and felt they had a stronger resume than Marquette, Louisville, and Villanova.
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