Sunday, March 16, 2008

Final Predictions

Well, it looks like I have to update my bracket with Georgia's victory in the SEC championship. Georgia replaces Oregon in the field, while Arkansas drops from a 6 seed to an 8 seed.

East Regional (#1 overall seed)

Raleigh, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Mississippi Valley State

8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M

Denver, CO
5 Vanderbilt
12 St. Joseph's

4 Drake
13 George Mason

Birmingham, AL
6 Butler
11 Arizona

3 Georgetown
14 Boise State

Omaha, NE
7 Gonzaga
10 Kent State

2 Wisconsin
15 UM-Baltimore County

Midwest Regional (#4 overall seed)

Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 American

8 St. Mary's
9 Davidson

Tampa, FL
5 Clemson
12 Georgia

4 Pittsburgh
13 Oral Roberts

Washington, D.C.
6 Washington State
11 Temple

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

Birmingham, AL
7 Brigham Young
10 Baylor

2 Tennessee
15 Austin Peay

South Regional (#2 overall seed)

Little Rock, AR
1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Mississippi State
9 Kansas State

Tampa, FL
5 Purdue
12 Illinois State

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

Anaheim, CA
6 Indiana
11 Villanova

3 Stanford
14 San Diego

Raleigh, NC
7 Oklahoma
10 South Alabama

2 Duke
15 Winthrop

West Regional (#3 overall seed)

Anaheim, CA
1 UCLA
16 UT-Arlington

8 Arkansas
9 UNLV

Denver, CO
5 Michigan State
12 Western Kentucky

4 Notre Dame
13 CSU-Fullerton

Washington, D.C.
6 Marquette
11 Kentucky

3 Xavier
14 Siena

Little Rock, AR
7 Southern Cal
10 Miami (FL)

2 Texas
15 Portland State

Selection Sunday Predictions

It's here folks! Selection Sunday has finally arrived. My goal this year is to outdo Joe Lunardi, and I feel pretty confident after seeing some of his latest predictions.

For this projection I've assumed that tomorrow's winners will be North Carolina, Kansas, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and UT-Arlington. Unless either an upset occurs or I change my mind on an at-large team, this will be my final prediction.

East Regional (#1 overall seed)

Raleigh, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Mount St. Mary's

8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M

Denver, CO
5 Vanderbilt
12 St. Joseph's

4 Drake
13 George Mason

Birmingham, AL
6 Arkansas
11 Arizona

3 Georgetown
14 Boise State

Omaha, NE
7 Brigham Young
10 Kent State

2 Wisconsin
15 UM-Baltimore County

Midwest Regional (#4 overall seed)

Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 American

8 St. Mary's
9 Davidson

Tampa, FL
5 Clemson
12 Oregon

4 Pittsburgh
13 Oral Roberts

Washington, D.C.
6 Washington State
11 Temple

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

Birmingham, AL
7 Indiana
10 Baylor

2 Tennessee
15 Austin Peay

South Regional (#2 overall seed)

Little Rock, AR
1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Mississippi State
9 Kansas State

Tampa, FL
5 Purdue
12 Illinois State

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

Anaheim, CA
6 Butler
11 Villanova

3 Stanford
14 San Diego

Raleigh, NC
7 Oklahoma
10 South Alabama

2 Duke
15 Winthrop

West Regional (#3 overall seed)

Anaheim, CA
1 UCLA
16 UT-Arlington

8 Gonzaga
9 UNLV

Denver, CO
5 Notre Dame
12 Western Kentucky

4 Michigan State
13 CSU-Fullerton

Washington, D.C.
6 Marquette
11 Kentucky

3 Xavier
14 Siena

Little Rock, AR
7 Southern Cal
10 Miami (FL)

2 Texas
15 Portland State

Play-in Game: Mississippi Valley State vs. Coppin State

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Bubble Analysis: 3/16/08

Well, Selection Sunday is officially here. I think there are 7 bids still available, and that number could shrink to 6 or 5 if Illinois or Georgia win tomorrow.

13 teams are still in the hunt for the 7 remaining at-large bids. Interestingly enough, all of those teams have been eliminated from their conference tournaments, which means it is highly unlikely that I will shift my rankings of these teams.
As of right now, I believe the committee will rank the 13 bubble teams in this order:
1. Arizona
2. St. Joseph's
3. Baylor
4. Kentucky
5. Illinois State
--------------------
6. Villanova
7. Oregon
--------------------
8. Virginia Tech
9. Dayton
10. Arizona State
11. Ohio State
12. Massachusetts
13. VCU

Projections for 3/15/08

On the eve of Selection Sunday, a few teams decided to step up and make a statement for an at-large bid. Temple now gets the auto-bid from the A-10, St. Joseph's moves into the field after their victory over Xavier, and Virginia Tech moves into the last four out with their W against Miami. Also, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, and Arkansas all picked up quality wins to boost their seeding.

Last Four In: Arizona, St. Joseph's, Villanova, Arizona State

Last Four Out: Virginia Tech, Dayton, Oregon, UMass

Still alive: VCU, Ohio State

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State

8 Arkansas
9 Texas A&M

5 Washington State
12 St. Joseph's

4 Notre Dame
13 Oral Roberts

6 Indiana
11 Temple

3 Stanford
14 CSU-Fullerton

7 Oklahoma
10 Kentucky

2 Georgetown
15 UM-Baltimore County

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Kansas State
9 Miami (FL)

5 Southern Cal
12 Western Kentucky

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

6 Pittsburgh
11 Arizona State

3 Xavier
14 Siena

7 Clemson
10 UNLV

2 Texas
15 New Mexico State

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 St. Mary's
9 West Virginia

5 Vanderbilt
12 Illinois State

4 Michigan State
13 Belmont

6 Marquette
11 Baylor

3 Wisconsin
14 San Diego

7 Mississippi State
10 Davidson

2 Duke
15 Winthrop

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Mount St. Mary's

8 Gonzaga
9 Kent State

5 Purdue
12 Villanova

4 Drake
13 George Mason

6 Butler
11 Arizona

3 Louisville
14 Austin Peay

7 Brigham Young
10 South Alabama

2 Kansas
15 Portland State

Play-in Game: Texas-Arlington vs. Mississippi Valley State

Friday, March 14, 2008

Projections for 3/14/08

Do any bubble teams want to play in the NCAA tournament? Amazingly, out of all the bubble teams in action today, Texas A&M and St. Joseph's were the only teams that won their games. Texas A&M and South Alabama moved into lock status today, while Baylor fell back onto the bubble and Maryland, UAB, Florida, Ole Miss, and New Mexico all played their way into the NIT.

Last Four In: Arizona, Massachusetts, Dayton, Villanova

Last Four Out: Arizona State, St. Joseph's, Oregon, VCU

Still alive: Virginia Tech, Temple, Florida State

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State

8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M

5 Vanderbilt
12 Arizona

4 Drake
13 George Mason

6 Southern Cal
11 South Alabama

3 Xavier
14 Siena

7 Oklahoma
10 UNLV

2 Georgetown
15 UM-Baltimore County

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Portland State

8 Gonzaga
9 Miami (FL)

5 Notre Dame
12 Dayton

4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Indiana
11 Davidson

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Brigham Young
10 Kentucky

2 Texas
15 San Diego

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 St. Mary's
9 Arkansas

5 Michigan State
12 Massachusetts

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

6 Pittsburgh
11 Ohio State

3 Stanford
14 Utah State

7 Mississippi State
10 Baylor

2 Duke
15 Austin Peay

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Kansas State
9 Kent State

5 Washington State
12 Western Kentucky

4 Marquette
13 Oral Roberts

6 Butler
11 Villanova

3 Wisconsin
14 UC-Santa Barbara

7 Clemson
10 Illinois State

2 Kansas
15 Winthrop

Play-in Game: Mount St. Mary's vs. Alabama State

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Bubble Update: 3/13/08

Since no new teams entered the field yesterday as at-larges, I thought it would be a good time to share my bubble list and tell what each team has to do to get an NCAA bid.

There are currently 8 bids still up for grabs (this number could shrink if a conference like the A-10 or C-USA has a surprise champ). After Syracuse's loss today, I believe there are 19 teams still alive for these last 8 spots.

Maryland: needs to reach ACC final
Virginia Tech: could be in with a win over Miami. May need to reach ACC final to be safe.
Ohio State: needs to beat Michigan State
Texas A&M: needs to beat Iowa State
Villanova: needs to beat Georgetown
Arizona: might be in already, needs to beat Stanford to be safe
Arizona State: needs to beat USC
Oregon: needs to beat WSU
Ole Miss: needs to beat Georgia and Kentucky, may need to reach SEC final
Florida: needs to beat Alabama and Mississippi State, may need to reach SEC final
UMass: probably already in, needs to beat Charlotte to be safe
Dayton: needs to beat Xavier
St. Joseph's: needs to reach A-10 final
Temple: needs to reach A-10 final
South Alabama: should be in, but can't be a lock until enough bubble teams choke
Illinois State: in for now, could be in trouble if a bunch of teams play their way in
New Mexico: needs to reach MWC final
VCU: needs most of these teams to choke
UAB: needs to reach C-USA final, probably needs auto bid

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Projections for 3/12/08

Alot will happen the next 3 days to help clear up the bubble picture. But for now, here are your current projections. I currently have all 3 Pac-1o bubble teams in, but unless they all make noise in the conference tournament I expect at least one of them to be left out.

Last Four In: Arizona, Arizona State, Ohio State, Oregon

Last Four Out: Syracuse, New Mexico, VCU, Dayton

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State

8 Baylor
9 West Virginia

5 Vanderbilt
12 Ohio State

4 Drake
13 George Mason

6 Brigham Young
11 Arizona

3 Wisconsin
14 Utah State

7 Oklahoma
10 Massachusetts

2 Georgetown
15 UM-Baltimore County

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Portland State

8 Kent State
9 Kentucky

5 Butler
12 Western Kentucky

4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Washington State
11 Illinois State

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Gonzaga
10 Miami (FL)

2 Texas
15 Winthrop

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Kansas State
9 Arkansas

5 Michigan State
12 Oregon

4 Notre Dame
13 Oral Roberts

6 Marquette
11 Texas A&M

3 Stanford
14 San Diego

7 Mississippi State
10 UNLV

2 Duke
15 Austin Peay

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Clemson
9 St. Mary's

5 Indiana
12 Arizona State

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

6 Southern Cal
11 Davidson

3 Xavier
14 Siena

7 Pittsburgh
10 South Alabama

2 Kansas
15 UC-Santa Barbara

Play-in Game: Sacred Heart vs Alabama State

Others Considered: UAB, Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's, Ole Miss, Villanova, Florida, Maryland, Temple

Monday, March 10, 2008

Projections for 3/10/08

It's getting down to crunch time now. Beginning on Wednesday, I will have daily updates on my bracket projections.

With the exception of Stephen F. Austin in the Southland, I have projected the highest remaining seed to win each conference tournament. All teams in italics have earned automatic bids to the tournament.

Last Four In: Ohio State, Syracuse, Oregon, New Mexico

Last Four Out: VCU, Dayton, UAB, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, St. Joseph's, Ole Miss, Villanova

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Morgan State

8 Baylor
9 West Virginia

5 Vanderbilt
12 Ohio State

4 Drake
13 New Mexico

6 Gonzaga
11 Arizona

3 Wisconsin
14 Oral Roberts

7 Oklahoma
10 UMass

2 Georgetown
15 UM-Baltimore County

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Portland State

8 St. Mary's
9 Kentucky

5 Butler
12 Syracuse

4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Washington State
11 Illinois State

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Brigham Young
10 Miami (FL)

2 Texas
15 Winthrop

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Kansas State
9 South Alabama

5 Michigan State
12 Oregon

4 Notre Dame
13 George Mason

6 Marquette
11 Texas A&M

3 Stanford
14 Utah State

7 Mississippi State
10 UNLV

2 Duke
15 Austin Peay

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Clemson
9 Kent State

5 Indiana
12 Arizona State

4 Connecticut
13 Cornell

6 Southern Cal
11 Davidson

3 Xavier
14 Siena

7 Pittsburgh
10 Arkansas

2 Kansas
15 UC-Santa Barbara

Play-in Game: Sacred Heart vs Alabama State

Others considered: Florida, Maryland, Temple

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Projections for 3/4/08

Last Four In: Florida, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, New Mexico

Last Four Out: Maryland, Villanova, Syracuse, Dayton

South Regional

1 Memphis
16 Play-in Game

8 Miami (FL)
9 Southern Cal

5 Marquette
12 Florida

4 Purdue
13 Oral Roberts

6 Clemson
11 VCU

3 Stanford
14 Boise State

7 Pittsburgh
10 Texas A&M

2 Xavier
15 UM-Baltimore County

West Regional

1 UCLA
16 Portland State

8 Kansas State
9 South Alabama

5 Drake
12 Kentucky

4 Indiana
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Gonzaga
11 Massachusetts

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Brigham Young
10 Kent State

2 Texas
15 CSU-Northridge

East Regional

1 North Carolina
16 Robert Morris

8 Oklahoma
9 UNLV

5 Vanderbilt
12 Davidson

4 UConn
13 Virginia Tech

6 Washington State
11 West Virginia

3 Wisconsin
14 Siena

7 St. Mary's
10 Arkansas

2 Kansas
15 Austin Peay

Midwest Regional

1 Tennessee
16 American

8 Arizona
9 Baylor

5 Michigan State
12 UAB

4 Notre Dame
13 New Mexico

6 Butler
11 Illinois State

3 Georgetown
14 Cornell

7 Mississippi State
10 Arizona State

2 Duke
15 UNC-Asheville