Sunday, January 31, 2010

Projections for 2/1/10

Last Four In:  California, North Carolina, Mississippi State, Old Dominion

Last Four Out:  St. Mary's, Louisville, Charlotte, Wichita State

Next Four Out:  Virginia, Virginia Tech, Connecticut, Marquette


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook

8 Rhode Island
9 UNLV

5 Georgia Tech
12 UTEP

4 Vanderbilt
13 Murray State

6 Butler
11 North Carolina

3 Wisconsin
14 Sam Houston State

7 Baylor
10 Cornell

2 West Virginia
15 Coastal Carolina


West (#4 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Jacksonville

8 Oklahoma State
9 Clemson

5 Brigham Young
12 Old Dominion

4 Ohio State
13 Kent State

6 Wake Forest
11 Illinois

3 Kansas State
14 Pacific

7 Xavier
10 Florida

2 Georgetown
15 Morgan State


South (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Lehigh vs Jackson State

8 Ole Miss
9 Texas A&M

5 Gonzaga
12 Arizona

4 New Mexico
13 Utah State

6 Pittsburgh
11 Mississippi State

3 Purdue
14 Oakland

7 Florida State
10 Richmond

2 Texas
15 Arkansas State


East (#3 Overall)

1 Villanova
16 Robert Morris

8 UAB
9 Maryland

5 Tennessee
12 Siena

4 Temple
13 George Mason

6 Northern Iowa
11 California

3 Duke
14 Charleston

7 Missouri
10 Cincinnati

2 Michigan State
15 Weber State

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Breaking Down the Conferences: Big Ten

Looking Good

Michigan State (18-3, 8-0 Big 10)- Thanks to some last-minute heroics, Michigan State is off to their best conference start in school history.  The remaining schedule is a bit difficult; they still have to travel to Madison and West Lafayette, but the Spartans look to be in good shape to win another Big 10 title.

Wisconsin (16-4, 6-2 Big 10)- With wins over Duke, Purdue, and Ohio State already under their belt, Wisconsin is in position to get a Top 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.  Their next two games (@Purdue, Michigan State) are a doozy, but the Badgers have a remarkably easy schedule after that, with the most difficult game being @Minnesota.

Purdue (16-3, 4-3 Big 10)- The Boilermakers appear to have righted the ship after that three game losing skid.  They still have to play Michigan State twice and travel to Columbus, but outside of that Purdue should have little trouble finishing with 11+ conference wins.

Ohio State (15-6, 5-3 Big 10)- The Buckeyes will receive a bit slack from the committee for their midseason slump.  Now that Evan Turner has returned from his back injury, the Buckeyes are 4-1 in their last five games, including wins over Purdue and Wisconsin.  The remaining schedule is very favorable, with 6 of their last 10 games at home and the only difficult road game being against Michigan State.  Overall, Ohio State could easily end up being a Top 4 seed when the season is over.


Work to Do

Northwestern (14-6, 3-5 Big 10)- Despite the rough start to conference play, I really like Northwestern's chances to make the tournament.  8 of their last 10 games are Iowa x2, Indiana x2, Penn State x2, and  home games against Michigan and Minnesota.  The only 2 difficult games left are @Michigan State and @Wisconsin.  The Wildcats have a marquee win over Purdue and have shown they can win away from home with road/neutral victories against Notre Dame, Iowa State, NC State, and Michigan.  As long as they get to 10 conference wins (very doable against that schedule), Northwestern will be in the field on Selection Sunday.

Minnesota (13-7, 4-4 Big 10)- Unlike Northwestern, the Gophers don't have a signature win to fall back on, have only a 2-6 road/neutral record, and have not-so-good losses against Portland and Miami.  Fortunately, there's still time for Minnesota to get a signature win, as they have home games left against Wisconsin and Purdue and a road game @Ohio State.  Winning @Northwestern on Valentine's Day would go a long way towards putting them in the field, as it would give them a season sweep of the Wildcats.

Illinois (13-8, 5-3 Big 10)- Illinois has a nice conference record, but those wins came against Penn State x2, @Indiana, Iowa, and home against Northwestern.  The Illini have nice wins against Clemson and Vanderbilt, but that isn't enough to offset bad losses against Utah, Bradley, and Georgia.  Illinois will likely be 7-3 in conference play at this time next week, but then they enter the murderer's row part of the schedule (Wisconsin twice, Ohio State twice, @Purdue, @Michigan, Michigan State, and Minnesota).  With only an 8-5 nonconference record, Illinois will have to go 4-4 in those last 8 games to feel good about their chances.  3-5 puts them squarely on the bubble, and anything less sends them to the NIT.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Breaking Down the Conferences: ACC

Now that January is coming to a close and the conferences races are taking shape, this is a good time to start looking at potential tournament teams and what they need to accomplish the rest of the way to get an at-large bid.


Looking Good

Duke- despite the setback at NC State, Duke is still the clear favorite to win the ACC regular season.  The Blue Devils still have to play UNC and Maryland twice, but as long as they hold serve at home and beat the teams they should on the road, Duke should end up being a top 3 seed.

Wake Forest- the Demon Deacons are 14-4 (4-2 in the ACC) with road wins over Gonzaga and UNC and home wins over Xavier, Richmond, Maryland, and Virginia.  With home games remaining against Miami, Boston College, UNC, and Clemson and road games against Virginia and NC State, Wake should have little trouble finishing with 10+ conference wins.

Georgia Tech- losing to Georgia and getting swept by Florida State certainly hurts, but the Yellow Jackets already have wins over Siena, Duke, North Carolina, and Clemson.  With those big wins, Georgia Tech will make dance as long as they finish 8-8 or better in conference.

Clemson- the Tigers are far from a lock at this point since Butler and UNC are their only quality wins, but they have a favorable schedule the rest of the way and should have little trouble finishing with 9+ conference wins.

Florida State- the Seminoles are 15-4 (3-2 in the ACC) and have already swept Georgia Tech.  A 9-7 conference record should clinch a bid for them, and that seems probable with 2 games each against Boston College and Miami, road games against Virginia and UNC, and home games against Maryland, Clemson, and Wake Forest still on the schedule.


Work to Do

Maryland- the Terps are off to a good start in ACC play, but they have yet to play the toughest part of their schedule.  They still have to play Duke, Clemson, and Virginia twice, and they also have road games against Florida State, NC State, and Virginia Tech.  Maryland made the NCAAs with a 7-9 conference record last year because they had big wins against Michigan State, North Carolina, and Wake Forest to fall back on.  That isn't the case this year and anything less than 9-7 will likely send them to the NIT.

North Carolina- UNC is off to a disastrous start in conference play, losing at home to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest en route to a 1-3 record.  I would say it's just a bad stretch and things will get better, but the remaining schedule isn't any easier.  UNC still has road games against NC State, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Duke, and home games against Duke and Florida State.  The Tar Heels better win their two games this week (@NC State, Virginia) or they are going to be in a world of trouble against that back-loaded schedule.

Virginia Tech- the Hokies have a gaudy 15-3 record, but that means little at this point since their best win is Seton Hall.  Their next 4 games (@Virginia, @Miami, UNC, Clemson) will be very telling as to whether or not they can compete for an NCAA bid this year.  Va Tech caught a bit of a bad break in scheduling, as they only play Duke and Georgia Tech once, both on the road.

Virginia- Virginia is off to a surprisingly good start, but the question is whether or not they will be able to sustain it for a whole season in conference play.  The Cavaliers got a bit lucky in the scheduling, as they play Virginia Tech, NC State, Maryland, Wake Forest and Miami twice, and only get Duke, Georgia Tech, and Florida State once, all at home.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Projections for 1/25/10

Last Four In:  Arizona State, Richmond, Tulsa, Rhode Island

Last Four Out:  Wichita State, William & Mary, Virginia Tech, Dayton

Next Four Out:  Illinois, Virginia, Louisville, Minnesota


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Quinnipiac vs. Texas Southern

8 Connecticut
9 Baylor

5 Ohio State
12 Tulsa

4 Temple
13 Murray State

6 New Mexico
11 Northwestern

3 Georgetown
14 Weber State

7 Clemson
10 Florida

2 Kansas State
15 Arkansas State


East (#4 Overall)

1 Villanova
16 Lehigh

8 Missouri
9 Xavier

5 Wake Forest
12 Arizona State

4 Purdue
13 Charleston

6 Vanderbilt
11 Cincinnati

3 Brigham Young
14 Pacific

7 Northern Iowa
10 North Carolina

2 Texas
15 Coastal Carolina


South (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Central Michigan

8 Texas A&M
9 Maryland

5 Butler
12 Richmond

4 Tennessee
13 Louisiana Tech

6 UAB
11 Old Dominion

3 Wisconsin
14 Oakland

7 Ole Miss
10 California

2 Duke
15 Morgan State


West (#3 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Campbell

8 Florida State
9 UNLV

5 Pittsburgh
12 Siena

4 Gonzaga
13 Rhode Island

6 Georgia Tech
11 Cornell

3 West Virginia
14 Sam Houston State

7 Mississippi State
10 Oklahoma State

2 Michigan State
15 Maine


Also Considered:  Miami (FL), NC State, Notre Dame, Marquette, St. John's, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Washington, Washington State, South Carolina, Alabama, UTEP, Memphis, Marshall, Charlotte, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Harvard

Monday, January 18, 2010

Projections for 1/18/10

Last Four In:  Cincinnati, Illinois, Dayton, Old Dominion

Last Four Out:  Maryland, Rhode Island, Wichita State, Florida

Next Four Out:  St. Mary's, Louisville, California, Oklahoma State


South (#1 Overall)

1 Texas
16 Campbell

8 North Carolina
9 UNLV

5 Temple
12 Siena

4 Georgetown
13 Western Kentucky

6 Vanderbilt
11 Cornell

3 West Virginia
14 Charleston

7 Ole Miss
10 Florida State

2 Michigan State
15 Weber State


West (#4 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Lafayette

8 William & Mary
9 Missouri

5 Ohio State
12 Dayton

4 Gonzaga
13 Louisiana Tech

6 Northern Iowa
11 Minnesota

3 Brigham Young
14 Oakland

7 Texas A&M
10 Connecticut

2 Duke
15 Sam Houston State


Midwest (#2 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Quinnipiac vs Jackson State

8 Washington
9 Baylor

5 Purdue
12 Xavier

4 Clemson
13 Old Dominion

6 New Mexico
11 Virginia

3 Pittsburgh
14 Coastal Carolina

7 Mississippi State
10 Northwestern

2 Kansas State
15 Pacific


East (#3 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Morgan State

8 Wake Forest
9 Arizona State

5 Butler
12 Cincinnati

4 Wisconsin
13 Murray State

6 Georgia Tech
11 Illinois

3 Tennessee
14 Buffalo

7 UAB
10 Richmond

2 Villanova
15 Vermont


Also Considered:  Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, NC State, St. John's, Notre Dame, Marquette, Seton Hall, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Washington State, South Carolina, Alabama, San Diego State, Charlotte, VCU, Marshall, Tulsa, Memphis, UTEP, Illinois State, Western Carolina, Harvard

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Projections for 1/11/10

Last Four In:  Northwestern, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Louisville

Last Four Out:  Florida, Maryland, Richmond, Cincinnati

Next Four Out:  Illinois, Rhode Island, Texas Tech, Old Dominion


South (#1 Overall)

1 Texas
16 Morgan State

8 Minnesota
9 UAB

5 Georgia Tech
12 Wichita State

4 West Virginia
13 Siena

6 Connecticut
11 California

3 Tennessee
14 Coastal Carolina

7 Baylor
10 Florida State

2 Michigan State
15 Vermont


West (#4 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 Lafayette

8 Vanderbilt
9 Miami (FL)

5 Butler
12 Northwestern

4 Brigham Young
13 Western Kentucky

6 Clemson
11 St. Mary's

3 Kansas State
14 Charleston

7 Pittsburgh
10 Dayton

2 Purdue
15 UC Santa Barbara


Midwest (#2 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Long Island vs Jackson State

8 New Mexico
9 Wake Forest

5 Texas A&M
12 Notre Dame

4 Gonzaga
13 Murray State

6 Northern Iowa
11 Oklahoma State

3 Georgetown
14 Akron

7 Mississippi State
10 Ohio State

2 Duke
15 Sam Houston State


East (#3 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Belmont

8 William & Mary
9 Washington

5 Temple
12 Louisville

4 North Carolina
13 Louisiana Tech

6 Ole Miss
11 Cornell

3 Wisconsin
14 Northern Colorado

7 UNLV
10 Missouri

2 Villanova
15 Oakland


Also Considered:  Virginia Tech, NC State, Marquette, St. John's, Seton Hall, Michigan, Washington State, Arizona State, Oregon, South Carolina, Alabama, UTEP, Memphis, Tulsa, Xavier, San Diego State, Illinois State, Harvard

Monday, January 4, 2010

Projections for 1/4/10

Last Four In:  St. Mary's, Baylor, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech

Last Four Out:  VCU, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Memphis

Next Four Out:  Wichita State, Missouri, Missouri State, Louisville


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Campbell

8 Cincinnati
9 Florida State

5 Tennessee
12 Rhode Island

4 Gonzaga
13 Western Kentucky

6 Butler
11 Cornell

3 Michigan State
14 Coastal Carolina

7 Wake Forest
10 Florida

2 West Virginia
15 Vermont


West (#4 Overall)

1 Purdue
16 Army

8 Dayton
9 Mississippi State

5 Washington
12 Miami (FL)

4 New Mexico
13 Louisiana Tech

6 Clemson
11 Vanderbilt

3 Kansas State
14 Pacific

7 Northern Iowa
10 UAB

2 Villanova
15 Oakland


South (#2 Overall)

1 Texas
16 Morgan State

8 William & Mary
9 Minnesota

5 Connecticut
12 Virginia Tech

4 Ole Miss
13 Western Carolina

6 Temple
11 Baylor

3 North Carolina
14 Murray State

7 UNLV
10 California

2 Syracuse
15 Sam Houston State


East (#3 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Robert Morris vs Jackson State

8 Georgia Tech
9 Texas Tech

5 Brigham Young
12 Pittsburgh

4 Wisconsin
13 Siena

6 Texas A&M
11 St. Mary's

3 Georgetown
14 Akron

7 Ohio State
10 Richmond

2 Duke
15 Weber State