Midwest (#1 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
Portland, OR
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Purdue
13 Stephen F. Austin
Miami, FL
6 Tennessee
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Akron
Kansas City, MO
7 Clemson
10 Wisconsin
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
Philadelphia, PA
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Boston College
Boise, ID
5 Gonzaga
12 Mississippi State
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
Miami, FL
6 West Virginia
11 Southern Cal
3 Wake Forest
14 American
Kansas City, MO
7 Utah
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
East (#2 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Brigham Young
9 Michigan
Portland, OR
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 Virginia Commonwealth
Philadelphia, PA
6 Xavier
11 Maryland
3 Syracuse
14 Binghamton
Minneapolis, MN
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Michigan State
15 Robert Morris
South (#3 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Louisville
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 California
Boise, ID
5 Illinois
12 Cleveland State
4 Kansas
13 Northern Iowa
Minneapolis, MN
6 Ohio State
11 Utah State
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
Greensboro, NC
7 LSU
10 Dayton
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Selection Sunday Predictions
I've assumed that the winners of tomorrows games will be Stephen F. Austin, Tennessee, Duke, and Purdue. I will post a final bracket in the afternoon if any upsets occur, or if I feel like I need to change something.
Midwest (#1 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
Portland, OR
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Purdue
13 American
Miami, FL
6 Tennessee
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Akron
Kansas City, MO
7 Clemson
10 Wisconsin
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
Philadelphia, PA
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Boston College
Boise, ID
5 Gonzaga
12 San Diego State*
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
Miami, FL
6 West Virginia
11 Southern Cal
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
Kansas City, MO
7 Utah
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
East (#2 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Brigham Young
9 Michigan
Portland, OR
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 Virginia Commonwealth
Philadelphia, PA
6 Xavier
11 Maryland
3 Syracuse
14 Binghamton
Minneapolis, MN
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Michigan State
15 Robert Morris
South (#3 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Louisville
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 California
Boise, ID
5 Illinois
12 Cleveland State
4 Kansas
13 Northern Iowa
Minneapolis, MN
6 Ohio State
11 Utah State
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
Greensboro, NC
7 LSU
10 Dayton
2 Duke
15 Cornell
*- Mississippi State will go here if they win tomorrow
Midwest (#1 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
Portland, OR
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Purdue
13 American
Miami, FL
6 Tennessee
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Akron
Kansas City, MO
7 Clemson
10 Wisconsin
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
Philadelphia, PA
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Boston College
Boise, ID
5 Gonzaga
12 San Diego State*
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
Miami, FL
6 West Virginia
11 Southern Cal
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
Kansas City, MO
7 Utah
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
East (#2 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Brigham Young
9 Michigan
Portland, OR
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 Virginia Commonwealth
Philadelphia, PA
6 Xavier
11 Maryland
3 Syracuse
14 Binghamton
Minneapolis, MN
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Michigan State
15 Robert Morris
South (#3 Overall)
Dayton, OH
1 Louisville
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 California
Boise, ID
5 Illinois
12 Cleveland State
4 Kansas
13 Northern Iowa
Minneapolis, MN
6 Ohio State
11 Utah State
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
Greensboro, NC
7 LSU
10 Dayton
2 Duke
15 Cornell
*- Mississippi State will go here if they win tomorrow
Final Bubble Update
Well, Selection Sunday is finally here folks. I believe there are 3 bids still available, and that there are 7 teams fighting for these 3 spots. I'd like to share my rankings of the 7 teams, and comment on why I think the teams will or won't get in.
1. Maryland
2. St. Mary's
-------------
3. San Diego State
-------------
4. Penn State
5. Creighton
6. Auburn
7. Arizona
-Maryland is the team I feel the best about. The Terps have alot of negatives on their resume (7-9 in ACC play, losses to Morgan State and Virginia, 6-9 road/neutral record, 8-11 vs Top 100 teams, RPI in the 50s), but the marquee wins over North Carolina, Michigan State, and Wake Forest show that they are capable of winning games in the tournament. I think that will ultimately allow them to sneak into the field.
-St. Mary's is the hardest team figure out because of the injury to Patty Mills. The San Diego State loss in the Mountain West finals was huge for them. St. Mary's beat the Aztecs on a neutral court in December, and since their resumes are so similar, it's hard to see the committee taking SDSU and not the Gaels.
-Penn State deserves an NCAA bid, but they'd be the 8th team from the Big 10, and regardless of what the committee says, I have a hard time believing that fact would not persuade some members to keep the Nittany Lions out of the field. Along the same lines, it would not surprise me at all to see Auburn in the field tomorrow despite not having an NCAA resume. Will the committee really give the SEC just 2 bids if Mississippi State loses tomorrow? We shall see.
-Creighton's situation is very similar to Illinois State from last year. ISU finished 2nd in the Valley and had an RPI in the 30s, but the lack of quality wins and blowout loss in the MVC tournament kept them out of the NCAA tournament. This year, Creighton got blown out by Illinois State in the semi's. Despite winning 11 of their last 12 and being an impressive 9-5 against the Top 100, their best wins were at home against Dayton and Illinois State. Based on last year's precedent, I just don't think they will make it.
-Arizona really shouldn't be in, but they're a big name school, have been to the tournament 24 years in a row, have 6 wins against Top 50 teams (including marquee wins over Kansas, UCLA, and Gonzaga, and a win over fellow bubble team SDSU), and have only 1 bad loss (@Stanford). With that much working in their favor, I'm not willing to declare them dead just yet.
1. Maryland
2. St. Mary's
-------------
3. San Diego State
-------------
4. Penn State
5. Creighton
6. Auburn
7. Arizona
-Maryland is the team I feel the best about. The Terps have alot of negatives on their resume (7-9 in ACC play, losses to Morgan State and Virginia, 6-9 road/neutral record, 8-11 vs Top 100 teams, RPI in the 50s), but the marquee wins over North Carolina, Michigan State, and Wake Forest show that they are capable of winning games in the tournament. I think that will ultimately allow them to sneak into the field.
-St. Mary's is the hardest team figure out because of the injury to Patty Mills. The San Diego State loss in the Mountain West finals was huge for them. St. Mary's beat the Aztecs on a neutral court in December, and since their resumes are so similar, it's hard to see the committee taking SDSU and not the Gaels.
-Penn State deserves an NCAA bid, but they'd be the 8th team from the Big 10, and regardless of what the committee says, I have a hard time believing that fact would not persuade some members to keep the Nittany Lions out of the field. Along the same lines, it would not surprise me at all to see Auburn in the field tomorrow despite not having an NCAA resume. Will the committee really give the SEC just 2 bids if Mississippi State loses tomorrow? We shall see.
-Creighton's situation is very similar to Illinois State from last year. ISU finished 2nd in the Valley and had an RPI in the 30s, but the lack of quality wins and blowout loss in the MVC tournament kept them out of the NCAA tournament. This year, Creighton got blown out by Illinois State in the semi's. Despite winning 11 of their last 12 and being an impressive 9-5 against the Top 100, their best wins were at home against Dayton and Illinois State. Based on last year's precedent, I just don't think they will make it.
-Arizona really shouldn't be in, but they're a big name school, have been to the tournament 24 years in a row, have 6 wins against Top 50 teams (including marquee wins over Kansas, UCLA, and Gonzaga, and a win over fellow bubble team SDSU), and have only 1 bad loss (@Stanford). With that much working in their favor, I'm not willing to declare them dead just yet.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Projections for 3/14/09
I believe 31 of the 34 at-large spots have been locked up, with 6 teams playing for the last 3 spots, so I am just doing a "Last Three In" today.
Last Three In: Maryland, Penn State, St. Mary's
Last Three Out: Creighton, Auburn, Southern Cal
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morehead State
8 Tennessee
9 Michigan
5 West Virginia
12 Northern Iowa
4 Arizona State
13 Cleveland State
6 Purdue
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Binghamton
7 Clemson
10 San Diego State
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
5 Gonzaga
12 Maryland
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
6 Utah
11 Penn State
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Connecticut
15 Cornell
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Oklahoma State
9 California
5 Illinois
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 American
6 LSU
11 Minnesota
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
7 Brigham Young
10 Dayton
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
South (#3 Overall)
1 Louisville
16 Radford
8 Ohio State
9 Boston College
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Kansas
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Xavier
11 Utah State
3 Syracuse
14 Buffalo
7 Butler
10 Wisconsin
2 Duke
15 Robert Morris
Last Three In: Maryland, Penn State, St. Mary's
Last Three Out: Creighton, Auburn, Southern Cal
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Morehead State
8 Tennessee
9 Michigan
5 West Virginia
12 Northern Iowa
4 Arizona State
13 Cleveland State
6 Purdue
11 Temple
3 Villanova
14 Binghamton
7 Clemson
10 San Diego State
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Marquette
9 Texas A&M
5 Gonzaga
12 Maryland
4 Washington
13 North Dakota State
6 Utah
11 Penn State
3 Wake Forest
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Texas
10 Siena
2 Connecticut
15 Cornell
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Oklahoma State
9 California
5 Illinois
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 American
6 LSU
11 Minnesota
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
7 Brigham Young
10 Dayton
2 Memphis
15 East Tennessee State
South (#3 Overall)
1 Louisville
16 Radford
8 Ohio State
9 Boston College
5 UCLA
12 St. Mary's
4 Kansas
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Xavier
11 Utah State
3 Syracuse
14 Buffalo
7 Butler
10 Wisconsin
2 Duke
15 Robert Morris
Friday, March 13, 2009
Projections for 3/13/09
Last Four In: South Carolina, Creighton, San Diego State, Arizona
Last Four Out: St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Auburn
Next Four Out: Maryland, Southern Cal, Providence, UNLV
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Tennessee
9 Ohio State
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Syracuse
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Purdue
11 Creighton
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Siena
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 Boston College
5 Xavier
12 Arizona
4 Kansas
13 American
6 Texas
11 Utah State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Clemson
10 Penn State
2 Connecticut
15 Morgan State
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs. Alabama State
8 California
9 Dayton
5 Illinois
12 Northern Iowa
4 Florida State
13 Cleveland State
6 Brigham Young
11 South Carolina
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
7 Marquette
10 Minnesota
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Louisville
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Wisconsin
5 UCLA
12 San Diego State
4 Gonzaga
13 North Dakota State
6 West Virginia
11 Texas A&M
3 Wake Forest
14 Binghamton
7 LSU
10 Michigan
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Auburn
Next Four Out: Maryland, Southern Cal, Providence, UNLV
Midwest (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 Tennessee
9 Ohio State
5 Arizona State
12 Western Kentucky
4 Syracuse
13 Virginia Commonwealth
6 Purdue
11 Creighton
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Siena
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Butler
9 Boston College
5 Xavier
12 Arizona
4 Kansas
13 American
6 Texas
11 Utah State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Clemson
10 Penn State
2 Connecticut
15 Morgan State
East (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs. Alabama State
8 California
9 Dayton
5 Illinois
12 Northern Iowa
4 Florida State
13 Cleveland State
6 Brigham Young
11 South Carolina
3 Missouri
14 Portland State
7 Marquette
10 Minnesota
2 Duke
15 Cornell
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Louisville
16 Morehead State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Wisconsin
5 UCLA
12 San Diego State
4 Gonzaga
13 North Dakota State
6 West Virginia
11 Texas A&M
3 Wake Forest
14 Binghamton
7 LSU
10 Michigan
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Bubble Update: 3/11/09
Now that the big boys are about to begin conference tournaments, it seems like the appropriate time to see where everyone stands.
Projected Automatic Bids:
North Carolina, Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas, Washington, LSU, Brigham Young, Gonzaga, Xavier, Memphis, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Utah State, Chattanooga, plus 17 from 1-bid leagues with no bubble teams.
At-large Locks (25):
Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Tennessee, Utah, Butler
Should be in with 1 more victory (5 teams):
Michigan, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Dayton
Bubble (11 teams fighting for 4 spots):
Providence, Penn State, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Creighton, Davidson
Still alive, but need deep tournament runs to get on the bubble:
Miami (FL), Maryland, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Kansas State, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Rhode Island
Projected Automatic Bids:
North Carolina, Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas, Washington, LSU, Brigham Young, Gonzaga, Xavier, Memphis, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Utah State, Chattanooga, plus 17 from 1-bid leagues with no bubble teams.
At-large Locks (25):
Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Tennessee, Utah, Butler
Should be in with 1 more victory (5 teams):
Michigan, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Dayton
Bubble (11 teams fighting for 4 spots):
Providence, Penn State, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary's, Creighton, Davidson
Still alive, but need deep tournament runs to get on the bubble:
Miami (FL), Maryland, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Kansas State, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Rhode Island
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Projections for 3/11/09
Last Four In: Penn State, UNLV, South Carolina, New Mexico
Last Four Out: Creighton, Providence, St. Mary's, Florida
Next Four Out: San Diego State, Auburn, Miami (FL), Maryland
South (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M
5 Syracuse
12 Siena
4 Illinois
13 Cleveland State
6 Arizona State
11 South Carolina
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Michigan
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Tennessee
9 Dayton
5 Clemson
12 Northern Iowa
4 Missouri
13 North Dakota State
6 Brigham Young
11 Penn State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Butler
10 Boston College
2 Louisville
15 Morgan State
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Wisconsin
9 Oklahoma State
5 Xavier
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Purdue
11 UNLV
3 Kansas
14 Portland State
7 California
10 Utah State
2 Duke
15 Cornell
East (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Texas
9 Ohio State
5 UCLA
12 New Mexico
4 Gonzaga
13 American
6 Marquette
11 Arizona
3 Wake Forest
14 Binghamton
7 LSU
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
Last Four Out: Creighton, Providence, St. Mary's, Florida
Next Four Out: San Diego State, Auburn, Miami (FL), Maryland
South (#1 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
8 West Virginia
9 Texas A&M
5 Syracuse
12 Siena
4 Illinois
13 Cleveland State
6 Arizona State
11 South Carolina
3 Villanova
14 Buffalo
7 Utah
10 Michigan
2 Oklahoma
15 East Tennessee State
West (#4 Overall)
1 Michigan State
16 Cal State-Northridge
8 Tennessee
9 Dayton
5 Clemson
12 Northern Iowa
4 Missouri
13 North Dakota State
6 Brigham Young
11 Penn State
3 Washington
14 Stephen F. Austin
7 Butler
10 Boston College
2 Louisville
15 Morgan State
Midwest (#2 Overall)
1 Pittsburgh
16 Chattanooga vs Alabama State
8 Wisconsin
9 Oklahoma State
5 Xavier
12 Western Kentucky
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Purdue
11 UNLV
3 Kansas
14 Portland State
7 California
10 Utah State
2 Duke
15 Cornell
East (#3 Overall)
1 Connecticut
16 Morehead State
8 Texas
9 Ohio State
5 UCLA
12 New Mexico
4 Gonzaga
13 American
6 Marquette
11 Arizona
3 Wake Forest
14 Binghamton
7 LSU
10 Minnesota
2 Memphis
15 Robert Morris
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