Final Predictions

1 seeds
Louisville
Kansas
Gonzaga
Indiana

2 seeds
Miami (FL)
Duke
Michigan State
Georgetown

3 seeds
Ohio State
New Mexico
Kansas State
Syracuse

4 seeds
Wisconsin
Florida
Michigan
St. Louis

5 seeds
Marquette
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Notre Dame

6 seeds
UNLV
UCLA
Pittsburgh
North Carolina

7 seeds
NC State
VCU
Oregon
Butler

8 seeds
Creighton
Colorado State
Memphis
Illinois

9 seeds
San Diego State
Missouri
Cincinnati
Colorado

10 seeds
Iowa State
Villanova
Temple
Minnesota

11 seeds
California
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Wichita State

12 seeds
St. Mary's
Boise State
La Salle
Tennessee
Belmont
Bucknell

13 seeds
Akron
Valparaiso
Davidson
South Dakota State

14 seeds
New Mexico State
Harvard
Northwestern State
Montana

15 seeds
Florida Gulf Coast
Iona
Pacific
Albany

16 seeds
Western Kentucky
LIU Brooklyn
James Madison
Southern
Liberty
North Carolina A&T

Projections for 3/16/13

1 seeds
Indiana
Gonzaga
Duke
Louisville

2 seeds
Kansas
Michigan State
Georgetown
Miami (FL)

3 seeds
New Mexico
Ohio State
Kansas State
Syracuse

4 seeds
Florida
Michigan
Marquette
Wisconsin

5 seeds
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Notre Dame
St. Louis

6 seeds
UNLV
UCLA
Pittsburgh
NC State

7 seeds
North Carolina
Butler
VCU
Creighton

8 seeds
Colorado State
Oregon
Memphis
Illinois

9 seeds
San Diego State
Missouri
Cincinnati
Colorado

10 seeds
Iowa State
Villanova
Minnesota
California

11 seeds
Temple
Oklahoma
Wichita State
St. Mary's

12 seeds
Belmont
Boise State
Ole Miss
La Salle
Middle Tennessee
Bucknell

13 seeds
Akron
Stephen F. Austin
Valparaiso
Davidson

14 seeds
South Dakota State
New Mexico State
Harvard
Florida Gulf Coast

15 seeds
Montana
Iona
Pacific
Vermont

16 seeds
Western Kentucky
LIU Brooklyn
James Madison
Southern
Morgan State
Liberty


First Four Out:  Tennessee, Kentucky, Maryland, Alabama

Also Considered:  Virginia, UMass, Iowa, Baylor, Southern Miss

Projections for 3/15/13

1 seeds
Indiana
Duke
Gonzaga
Louisville

2 seeds
Kansas
Georgetown
Michigan State
Miami (FL)

3 seeds
Michigan
New Mexico
Ohio State
Florida

4 seeds
Kansas State
Syracuse
Arizona
Marquette

5 seeds
Oklahoma State
Wisconsin
Notre Dame
St. Louis

6 seeds
Pittsburgh
North Carolina
UNLV
NC State

7 seeds
UCLA
Colorado State
Butler
Creighton

8 seeds
VCU
San Diego State
Memphis
Missouri

9 seeds
Illinois
Oregon
Cincinnati
Colorado

10 seeds
Iowa State
Villanova
Temple
Minnesota

11 seeds
California
Oklahoma
Wichita State
St. Mary's

12 seeds
Belmont
Tennessee
Boise State
La Salle
Kentucky
Bucknell

13 seeds
Akron
Stephen F. Austin
Valparaiso
Davidson

14 seeds
South Dakota State
New Mexico State
Harvard
Florida Gulf Coast

15 seeds
Montana
Iona
Long Beach State
Vermont

16 seeds
Western Kentucky
LIU Brooklyn
James Madison
Southern
Morgan State
Liberty


First Four Out:  Middle Tennessee, Virginia, Ole Miss, Iowa

Also Considered:  Alabama, Southern Miss, Baylor, UMass

Projections for 3/14/13

There is still very little movement in the bracket.  That should all change tomorrow, with many tournament teams finally taking the court.  Instead of bothering with a bracket, I am just posting my S-Curve.  For next season, I will hopefully be able to post both without taking up excess space.


1 seeds
Indiana
Duke
Gonzaga
Louisville

2 seeds
Kansas
Georgetown
Michigan State
Miami (FL)

3 seeds
Michigan
New Mexico
Ohio State
Marquette

4 seeds
Florida
Kansas State
Syracuse
Arizona

5 seeds
Oklahoma State
Pittsburgh
Wisconsin
St. Louis

6 seeds
Notre Dame
North Carolina
UNLV
NC State

7 seeds
UCLA
Colorado State
Butler
Creighton

8 seeds
VCU
Memphis
San Diego State
Oregon

9 seeds
Missouri
Oklahoma
Cincinnati
California

10 seeds
Illinois
Colorado
Villanova
Minnesota

11 seeds
Temple
Iowa State
Wichita State
St. Mary's

12 seeds
Belmont
Tennessee
Boise State
La Salle
Kentucky
Bucknell

13 seeds
Akron
Stephen F. Austin
Valparaiso
Denver

14 seeds
South Dakota State
Davidson
Harvard
Florida Gulf Coast

15 seeds
Montana
Iona
Long Beach State
Vermont

16 seeds
Western Kentucky
LIU Brooklyn
Savannah State
James Madison
Southern
Liberty


First Four Out:  Middle Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss

Next Four Out:  Iowa, Alabama, Southern Miss, Arkansas

Projections for 3/13/13

First Four Out:  Middle Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss

Next Four Out:  Iowa, Alabama, Southern Miss, Arkansas


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Indiana
16 Southern vs Liberty

8 Oregon
9 Cincinnati

5 Pittsburgh
12 La Salle vs Kentucky

4 Kansas State
13 Denver

6 North Carolina
11 Iowa State

3 New Mexico
14 Florida Gulf Coast

7 Butler
10 Minnesota

2 Georgetown
15 Iona


South (#4 Overall)

1 Louisville
16 Norfolk State

8 San Diego State
9 Oklahoma

5 Wisconsin
12 Bucknell

4 Florida
13 Akron

6 NC State
11 Temple

3 Ohio State
14 Harvard

7 UCLA
10 Villanova

2 Kansas
15 Montana


East (#2 Overall)

1 Duke
16 James Madison vs LIU Brooklyn

8 Memphis
9 California

5 St. Louis
12 Belmont

4 Syracuse
13 Valparaiso

6 UNLV
11 St. Mary's

3 Marquette
14 Davidson

7 Creighton
10 Colorado

2 Michigan State
15 Long Beach State


West (#3 Overall)

1 Gonzaga
16 Western Kentucky

8 VCU
9 Illinois

5 Oklahoma State
12 Boise State vs Tennessee

4 Arizona
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Notre Dame
11 Wichita State

3 Michigan
14 South Dakota State

7 Colorado State
10 Missouri

2 Miami (FL)
15 Vermont

Projections for 3/11/13

First Four Out:  Middle Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss

Next Four Out:  Iowa, Alabama, Southern Miss, Arkansas


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Indiana
16 Southern vs Liberty

8 Oregon
9 Cincinnati

5 Pittsburgh
12 La Salle vs Kentucky

4 Kansas State
13 Denver

6 North Carolina
11 Iowa State

3 New Mexico
14 Florida Gulf Coast

7 Butler
10 Minnesota

2 Georgetown
15 Iona


South (#4 Overall)

1 Louisville
16 Vermont

8 San Diego State
9 Oklahoma

5 Wisconsin
12 Bucknell

4 Florida
13 Akron

6 NC State
11 Temple

3 Ohio State
14 Harvard

7 UCLA
10 Villanova

2 Kansas
15 Montana


East (#2 Overall)

1 Duke
16 Northeastern vs LIU-Brooklyn

8 Memphis
9 Colorado

5 St. Louis
12 Belmont

4 Syracuse
13 Valparaiso

6 UNLV
11 St. Mary's

3 Marquette
14 Davidson

7 Creighton
10 California

2 Michigan State
15 Long Beach State


West (#3 Overall)

1 Gonzaga
16 Norfolk State

8 VCU
9 Illinois

5 Oklahoma State
12 Boise State vs Tennessee

4 Arizona
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Notre Dame
11 Wichita State

3 Michigan
14 South Dakota State

7 Colorado State
10 Missouri

2 Miami (FL)
15 Florida International

Projections for 3/8/13

First Four Out:  Ole Miss, Iowa, Kentucky, Baylor

Next Four Out:  Alabama, Southern Miss, UMass, Providence


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Indiana
16 Charleston Southern vs Southern

8 UCLA
9 Creighton

5 Notre Dame
12 Boise State

4 Kansas State
13 Louisiana Tech

6 Wisconsin
11 Middle Tennessee

3 Miami (FL)
14 Davidson

7 Butler
10 California

2 Georgetown
15 Princeton


South (#4 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Mercer

8 VCU
9 Colorado

5 UNLV
12 Belmont

4 Syracuse
13 Akron

6 North Carolina
11 St. Mary's

3 Marquette
14 Valparaiso

7 Oregon
10 Villanova

2 Michigan
15 Montana


West (#2 Overall)

1 Gonzaga
16 Northeastern vs Norfolk State

8 Memphis
9 Minnesota

5 Oklahoma State
12 Temple vs Virginia

4 Arizona
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 NC State
11 Iowa State

3 Michigan State
14 South Dakota State

7 Missouri
10 Cincinnati

2 New Mexico
15 Long Beach State


East (#3 Overall)

1 Duke
16 Robert Morris

8 San Diego State
9 Oklahoma

5 Pittsburgh
12 La Salle vs Tennessee

4 Ohio State
13 Bucknell

6 St. Louis
11 Wichita State

3 Florida
14 Stony Brook

7 Colorado State
10 Illinois

2 Louisville
15 Niagara

Projections for 3/4/13

First Four Out:  Tennessee, Southern Miss, Alabama, Baylor

Next Four Out:  Ole Miss, Iowa, Arkansas, UMass


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Indiana
16 Charleston Southern vs Southern

8 Missouri
9 Creighton

5 UNLV
12 Temple

4 Kansas State
13 Louisiana Tech

6 Wisconsin
11 Boise State

3 Marquette
14 South Dakota State

7 Butler
10 Colorado

2 Miami (FL)
15 Princeton


South (#4 Overall)

1 Georgetown
16 Robert Morris

8 Memphis
9 San Diego State

5 Ohio State
12 Iowa State vs Virginia

4 Arizona
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Notre Dame
11 La Salle

3 Florida
14 Davidson

7 Minnesota
10 Middle Tennessee

2 Kansas
15 Montana


West (#2 Overall)

1 Gonzaga
16 Northeastern vs Norfolk State

8 VCU
9 California

5 Pittsburgh
12 Belmont

4 Oklahoma State
13 Akron

6 NC State
11 Wichita State

3 New Mexico
14 Stony Brook

7 UCLA
10 Cincinnati

2 Michigan
15 Long Beach State


East (#3 Overall)

1 Duke
16 Mercer

8 Colorado State
9 Oklahoma

5 St. Louis
12 Kentucky vs Villanova

4 Syracuse
13 Bucknell

6 North Carolina
11 St. Mary's

3 Michigan State
14 Valparaiso

7 Oregon
10 Illinois

2 Louisville
15 Niagara

Projections for 3/1/13

The best month of the year has finally arrived!

First Four Out:  Tennessee, Boise State, Baylor, Alabama


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Indiana
16 Charleston Southern vs Texas Southern

8 San Diego State
9 Colorado

5 Notre Dame
12 La Salle

4 Kansas State
13 Louisiana Tech

6 Oregon
11 Virginia

3 Florida
14 Davidson

7 Minnesota
10 Middle Tennessee

2 Georgetown
15 Niagara


South (#4 overall)

1 Kansas
16 Northeastern

8 UCLA
9 VCU

5 Wisconsin
12 Iowa State vs Kentucky

4 Marquette
13 Valparaiso

6 Pittsburgh
11 Akron

3 Michigan
14 South Dakota State

7 UNLV
10 Creighton

2 Duke
15 Northwestern State


West (#2 Overall)

1 Gonzaga
16 Robert Morris vs Norfolk State

8 Illinois
9 Memphis

5 Oklahoma State
12 Temple

4 Arizona
13 Ole Miss vs Villanova

6 Butler
11 Cincinnati

3 Syracuse
14 Harvard

7 NC State
10 Wichita State

2 New Mexico
15 Long Beach State


East (#3 Overall)

1 Miami (FL)
16 Mercer

8 Missouri
9 Oklahoma

5 St. Louis
12 Belmont

4 Ohio State
13 Bucknell

6 Colorado State
11 St. Mary's

3 Louisville
14 Stony Brook

7 North Carolina
10 California

2 Michigan State
15 Montana

Projections for 2/25/13

First Four Out:  Boise State, Baylor, Arizona State, Tennessee

Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Indiana

16 Southern vs Charleston Southern

8 North Carolina

9 VCU

5 Kansas State

12 Belmont

4 Marquette

13 Bucknell

6 Oregon

11 Iowa State

3 New Mexico

14 Harvard

7 NC State

10 Middle Tennessee

2 Georgetown

15 Niagara

South (#4 Overall)

1 Miami (FL)

16 Northeastern

8 San Diego State

9 Minnesota

5 Oklahoma State

12 La Salle

4 Ohio State

13 Kentucky vs Virginia

6 Memphis

11 St. Mary's

3 Syracuse

14 Stony Brook

7 UCLA

10 Cincinnati

2 Florida

15 Northwestern State

East (#2 Overall)

1 Duke

16 Robert Morris vs Norfolk State

8 Wichita State

9 Oklahoma

5 Wisconsin

12 Ole Miss vs Temple

4 Notre Dame

13 Valparaiso

6 Butler

11 Akron

3 Louisville

14 Davidson

7 UNLV

10 Colorado

2 Michigan

15 Long Beach State

West (#3 Overall)

1 Gonzaga

16 Mercer

8 Illinois

9 Missouri

5 St. Louis

12 Villanova

4 Arizona

13 Louisiana Tech

6 Pittsburgh

11 California

3 Michigan State

14 South Dakota State

7 Colorado State

10 Creighton

2 Kansas

15 Montana

Projections for 2/14/13

Sorry for the long hiatus.  I am officially back.  Let's get this blog going again!

First Four Out:  St. John's, Air Force, Indiana State, Stanford

Next Four Out:  Charlotte, Alabama, Villanova, Arizona State

East (#1 Overall)

1 Duke

16 Charleston Southern vs Norfolk State

8 Creighton

9 Oklahoma

5 Colorado State

12 Middle Tennessee

4 Wisconsin

13 Iowa State vs Temple

6 Oregon

11 Akron

3 Syracuse

14 Harvard

7 VCU

10 St. Mary's

2 Michigan State

15 Niagara

West (#4 Overall)

1 Florida

16 Northeastern

8 Minnesota

9 Wichita State

5 Pittsburgh

12 Virginia vs La Salle

4 Kansas

13 Louisiana Tech

6 Marquette

11 Kentucky

3 Ohio State

14 Davidson

7 San Diego State

10 St. Louis

2 Gonzaga

15 Western Illinois

Midwest (#2 Overall)

1 Indiana

16 Bryant vs Southern

8 NC State

9 Ole Miss

5 Butler

12 Boise State

4 Oklahoma State

13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Memphis

11 Illinois

3 Louisville

14 Valparaiso

7 Missouri

10 North Carolina

2 Arizona

15 Florida Gulf Coast

South (#3 Overall)

1 Miami (FL)

16 Long Beach State

8 UNLV

9 UCLA

5 Kansas State

12 Belmont

4 Georgetown

13 Bucknell

6 Notre Dame

11 Colorado

3 New Mexico

14 Montana

7 Cincinnati

10 Baylor

2 Michigan

15 Stony Brook

Projections for 11/26/12

Now that Feast Week is over and the season is beginning to take shape, it's time for the first bracket projection of the season.


First Four Out:  Colorado State, St. Mary's, Stanford, Belmont


Midwest (#1 Overall)

1 Indiana
16 Gardner-Webb vs Texas Southern

8 Memphis
9 Oregon

5 NC State
12 Pittsburgh

4 Missouri
13 Bucknell

6 San Diego State
11 California

3 Kansas
14 Middle Tennessee

7 VCU
10 Tennessee

2 Syracuse
15 Loyola MD


West (#4 Overall)

1 Louisville
16 Florida Gulf Coast vs Savannah State

8 Wisconsin
9 Alabama

5 UNLV
12 St. Louis

4 Creighton
13 George Mason

6 Florida State
11 Ohio

3 Arizona
14 South Dakota State

7 Oklahoma State
10 Temple

2 Michigan
15 Montana


East (#2 Overall)

1 Duke
16 Oral Roberts

8 Colorado
9 Illinois

5 Georgetown
12 Iowa State vs Ole Miss

4 Michigan State
13 Harvard

6 Kansas State
11 Wichita State

3 Gonzaga
14 New Mexico State

7 Notre Dame
10 Butler

2 Florida
15 Long Beach State


South (#3 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 Robert Morris

8 Baylor
9 St. Joseph's

5 New Mexico
12 Illinois State vs Maryland

4 Cincinnati
13 Davidson

6 Minnesota
11 Marquette

3 North Carolina
14 Valparaiso

7 UCLA
10 Murray State

2 Kentucky
15 Vermont

2012-13 Season Predictions

Conference Champions

ACC:  Duke
Big East:  Louisville
Big 10:  Indiana
Big 12:  Baylor
Pac 12:  UCLA
SEC:  Kentucky
MWC:  San Diego State
A-10:  VCU
CUSA:  Memphis
WCC:  Gonzaga
MVC:  Creighton


Player of the Year:  Doug McDermott, Creighton

Coach of the Year:  Mark Turgeon, Maryland


NCAA Tournament

1 seeds:  Indiana, Louisville, Duke, Ohio State

Sleeper Teams:  UNLV, Kansas State, Cincinnati

Early Exits:  Arizona, Syracuse, Baylor

Cinderella:  Davidson

Final Four:  Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Gonzaga

National Champions:  Michigan Wolverines

Final Predictions

Midwest (#1 Overall)

Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Iowa State
9 Purdue

Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 VCU

4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State

Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia

3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State

Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas

2 Duke
15 Detroit


West (#4 Overall)

Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar

8 Memphis
9 Connecticut

Albuquerque, NM
5 Vanderbilt
12 Washington vs Drexel

4 Florida State
13 Belmont

Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier

3 Marquette
14 Davidson

Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis

Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Colorado State vs South Florida

4 Indiana
13 Ohio

Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California

3 Baylor
14 Montana

Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young

2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh


South (#3 Overall)

Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama

Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State

4 Louisville
13 Colorado

Columbus, OH
6 San Diego State
11 Southern Miss

3 Michigan
14 St. Bonaventure

Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard

2 Missouri
15 Long Island

Selection Sunday Bracket Predictions

For this bracket I have assumed that tomorrow's winners will be Xavier, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Michigan State.  This is not my final bracket;  I will post that during the Big 10 Championship.


South (#1 Overall)

Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Iowa State
9 Purdue

Albuquerque, NM
5 San Diego State
12 VCU

4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State

Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia

3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State

Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas

2 Duke
15 Detroit


West (#4 Overall)

Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar

8 Memphis
9 Connecticut

Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs Drexel

4 Florida State
13 Ohio

Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier

3 Marquette
14 Davidson

Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis

Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State

4 Indiana
13 South Florida vs NC State

Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California

3 Baylor
14 Montana

Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young

2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh


Midwest (#3 Overall)

Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky

8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama

Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Colorado State

4 Louisville
13 Colorado

Columbus, OH
6 Vanderbilt
11 Southern Miss

3 Michigan
14 Belmont

Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard

2 Missouri
15 Long Island

Bubble Rankings and Breakdown

With Xavier's win over St. Louis, they become the projected automatic bid from the A-10.  Even with a loss in the finals, I believe Xavier is now safely in the field.  That leaves 6 bids, with 8 teams (9 if Long Beach State loses tonight) still in the running. 

Here's my ranking of the teams on the bubble from most likely to least likely to get in.  I have drawn in the cutoff lines to show who gets knocked out if UC Santa Barbara and/or St. Bonaventure are able to win their conference tournaments.

West Virginia
Colorado State
South Florida
(Long Beach State)
Washington
------------------
Drexel
NC State
------------------
Mississippi State
Seton Hall


The teams I feel comfortable putting into the field are West Virginia and Colorado State.  Both teams have less than 20 wins against D-1 schools, but there are too many positives on their resumes to think they'll miss the field with this weak bubble. 

After that, things start to become real fuzzy.  Out of the remaining teams, the one I feel best about is South Florida.  While they have some ugly marks on their resume (6-6 OOC, 2-9 vs Top 50, 6-11 road/neutral), they're one of hte few bubble teams that actually played well down the stretch.  They went 7-3 in their last 10 games, and both Top 50 wins have come within the last two weeks.  Combine that with their 12-6 conference record and head-to-head win over Seton Hall, and I would be fairly surprised (but not shocked) if USF wasn't in the bracket tomorrow.

Another team that's nearly impossible to figure out is Washington.  The Huskies have the worst computer profile of any team on this list, with an RPI of 70 and 0 Top 50 wins.  Nevertheless, they did win the Pac 12 regular season title, and history has shown us the Selection Committee puts a great deal of value on conference titles.  Time and time again, there have been bubble teams with nothing good on their resume except being the regular season champs of a top 10 league (i.e., UAB last year), and every single time those teams have made it into the field.  I'm just not willing to bet against history, because Washington would the first team in the 64 team era to win a Top 10 conference and not make the NCAA field.

This might be picking with my heart more than my head, but I think it would be an absolute sham if NC State, Mississippi State, or Seton Hall, teams that had multiple chances to take care of business and didn't, got into the field, while a Drexel team that went 25-2 after doing poorly in November is relegated to the NIT.  It might end up being the wrong decision, but I have to go with the Dragons over those teams.

That leaves the three aforementioned teams, NC State, Miss State, and Seton Hall, for the last spot.  It's really splitting hairs at this point because they all have so many ugly spots on their resumes, but I've decided to go with NC State.  The 1-8 record vs Top 50 with the 1 win being Texas is a huge eye sore, but unlike the other two the Wolfpack played well down the stretch and had a winning record away from home (9-6 road/neutral). 

While there is, IMO, a definite gap between these squads and everyone else, there are numerous teams that cannot be ruled out as possible "shocker" inclusions tomorrow:

Iona, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Miami, Middle Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Marshall

I can't really make a compelling case for any of these teams to be in the field, but I can't rule any of them out either.

All in all, this is easily the most difficult year to predict the field since I started doing bracketology.  My Selection Sunday bracket will be posted right after the conclusion of the WAC championship.

March 10 Bubble Update

Here's a general snapshot of where things stand as of 4pm EST.  A full ranking and breakdown of the bubble will be coming at the conclusion of tonight's games.

I believe Long Beach State would be right on the bubble with a loss tonight, which leaves 2 more potential bid stealers (UC Santa Barbara and St. Bonaventure).


Projected Automatic Bids (the auto bid in every remaining conference tournament goes to the highest remaining seed)

North Carolina, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Missouri, Arizona, Kentucky, San Diego State, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Creighton, Memphis, Harvard, Murray State, Loyola-Maryland, Vermont, Belmont, Montana, UNC Asheville, Long Beach State, VCU, Detroit, Akron, Norfolk State, Long Island, Lehigh, Davidson, Lamar, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Mississippi Valley State

At-large locks (24 at-large bids)

Duke, Florida State, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, UNLV, New Mexico, Temple, Gonzaga, Wichita State

Teams that look Safe (6 at-large bids)

Virginia, Connecticut, Texas, California, Southern Miss, Brigham Young

Bubble (10/11 teams for 7 bids)

NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Seton Hall, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss (with a win vs Vanderbilt), Colorado State, Xavier, Drexel, Iona

At-large Longshots

Northwestern, Miami (FL), Arizona/Colorado loser, Oregon, Tennessee, Ole Miss (with a loss vs Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Marshall

Projections for 3/10/12

Ole Miss is currently the last team in the field, but must beat Vanderbilt to hold onto their spot.

First Four Out:  Mississippi State, NC State, Seton Hall, Northwestern

Next Four Out:  Iona, Miami (FL), Tennessee, Oral Roberts

Still Alive:  Oregon, Middle Tennessee, Nevada


South (#1 Overall)

1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State

8 Gonzaga
9 Connecticut

5 San Diego State
12 VCU

4 Georgetown
13 Akron

6 Temple
11 West Virginia

3 Michigan
14 Montana

7 Murray State
10 Virginia

2 Missouri
15 Detroit


West (#4 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Lamar

8 Memphis
9 Alabama

5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs South Florida

4 Florida State
13 South Dakota State

6 St. Mary's
11 Colorado State

3 Marquette
14 New Mexico State

7 Vanderbilt
10 Texas

2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland


East (#2 Overall)

1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville

8 Iowa State
9 St. Louis

5 Florida
12 Long Beach State

4 Indiana
13 Arizona

6 Creighton
11 Southern Miss

3 Wisconsin
14 Davidson

7 Notre Dame
10 Brigham Young

2 Duke
15 Lehigh


Midwest (#3 Overall)

1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky

8 Kansas State
9 Purdue

5 Wichita State
12 Xavier

4 Louisville
13 Drexel vs Ole Miss

6 Cincinnati
11 California

3 Baylor
14 Belmont

7 UNLV
10 Harvard

2 Ohio State
15 Long Island

East Coast Bubble Update

Now that the bubble picture is becoming clearer, here's a summary of the bubble teams in the (predominately) East Coast conferences:  the ACC, Big East, and Atlantic 10.


ACC

Despite Virginia losing today and having their RPI fall out of the Top 50, I think the signature win over Michigan keeps the Cavs in the field.  Their seed will probably be 10 or worse, but with this weak bubble I don't see any way Virginia is left out of the field entirely.

NC State (22-11, 9-7 ACC)

Computer profile:  RPI 48, SOS 31.  1-7 vs Top 50 (win over Texas).  6-9 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (Georgia Tech, Clemson).  9-5 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  The road/neutral record and sweep over Miami is nice, but other than that the resume is very barren.  Fact is, NC State had multiple opportunities to pick up a signature win with home games against Syracuse, UNC, Florida State, and Indiana.  It's really hard to justify giving an at-large bid to a team that went 0-4 in those home games.  Obviously, if they beat UNC tomorrow this is all moot and they're in the field.

NCAA chances:  50/50

Miami (FL) (19-12, 9-7 ACC)

Computer profile:  RPI 55, SOS 47.  2-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Duke, Florida State).  3-11 vs Top 100.  1 sub-100 loss (@Maryland).  6-8 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  The Hurricanes have signature wins over Duke and FSU, but the rest of their profile is just awful.  A team with a win percentage that bad vs the Top 100 getting an at-large is unheard of, plus they were swept by fellow bubble team NC State during the regular season.  Unless the committee decides to make signature wins the most important factor for bubble teams, it's nearly impossible to see Miami getting in at this point.

NCAA chances:  Slim

Big East

With Connecticut and Cincinnati having successful Big East tournaments, 3 teams are now left on the bubble.


West Virginia (19-13, 9-9 Big East)

Computer profile:  RPI 56, SOS 14.  5-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Akron, Kansas State, Marshall, Cincinnati), 9-11 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (Kent State, @St. John's).  8-8 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  The Mountaineers have really struggled down the stretch, only managing a 4-8 record in their last 12 games.  The committee says last 12 games is no longer a factor, but we'll see how true that is on Sunday.  If they're serious and it doesn't matter, then based on their overall profile, WVU will be in the field.  If it does matter, then WVU will be in the NIT.

NCAA Chances:  Good


South Florida (20-13, 12-6 Big East)

Computer profile:  RPI 54, SOS 26.  2-9 vs Top 50 (wins over Cincinnati and Louisville).  6-10 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (Old Dominion, Penn State, Auburn).  6-10 road/neutral. 

Bottom line:  USF blew a golden opportunity to lock up an NCAA bid last night against Notre Dame.  The bad losses will not carry much weight because all 3 came before December 15.  Just like West Virginia, the Bulls will be a good litmus test for what the committee finds important.  If the committee puts more weight on conference play than non-con, USF will be in the field.  If they don't, USF will be in the NIT.  The committee did leave out an Alabama team last year that went 12-4 in the SEC, but that team had an RPI in the 80s, while South Florida's RPI is much more normal for a bubble team.

NCAA chances:  50/50


Seton Hall (20-12, 8-10 Big East)

Computer profile:  RPI 65, SOS 51.  3-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Connecticut, VCU).  7-9 vs Top 100.  3 sub-100 losses (Villanova, Rutgers, Depaul). 

Bottom line:  Seton Hall has a signature win over Georgetown, but other than that their resume is very barren.  Fact is, from top to bottom the Big East is not as good as it's been the last few years.  An 8-10 record in this league will not hold much weight with the committee (UConn gets a pass because they played a tougher conference schedule and challenged themselves out of conference).  At the end of the day, I think South Florida has an edge over Seton Hall thanks to their head-to-head win against the Pirates.  Additionally, their bad losses all came in the last 2 months of the year.  I know committee says when the wins and losses occur doesn't matter, but I have a hard time believing the human element won't come into play and dissuade them from putting the Pirates in the field.

NCAA chances:  Below Average


Atlantic 10

Temple and St. Louis are locked into the tournament field, which leaves Xavier as the only bubble team in the league.  Dayton might have had a chance to get in, but not now after losing in the A-10 quarters.


Xavier (20-11, 10-6 A-10)

Computer profile:  RPI 57, SOS 47.  3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati).  7-10 vs Top 100.  1 sub-100 loss (Hawaii).  6-8 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  It's a tale of 2 seasons for Xavier.  At the time of the Cincinnati brawl, the Musketeers had moved to 8-0 on the season with 3 top 50 wins.  Since then, Xavier has gone 12-11, with no Top 50 wins and an embarassing loss against sub-200 Hawaii.  Here's another case study for how much emphasis the committee puts on conference play.  The Musketeers need to beat St. Louis tomorrow to feel good about their chances.  If they don't, they'll be a very nervous group on Sunday. 

NCAA chances:  50/50

March 8 Bubble Update

Today's post will focus on the bubble teams in the Big 10 and SEC.


Big 10

6 teams have locked up bids, making Northwestern the only team with work to do in the conference tournament.


Northwestern (18-12, 8-10 Big 10)

Computer profile:  RPI 47, SOS 12.  1-10 vs Top 50 (win over Michigan State).  5-12 vs Top 100.  no sub-100 losses.  7-7 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  Northwestern does have solid RPI and SOS numbers, and the win over the Spartans might be the best win for any bubble team.  The record against Top 50 and Top 100 are huge eye sores, however.  Northwestern has to beat Minnesota and Michigan to feel safe on Selection Sunday.  A loss against Michigan would leave them right near the cut line, while a loss against Minnesota would almost certainly send them to the NIT.

NCAA Chances:  Fair


SEC

With the lack of bid stealers early on in Championship Week, I believe Alabama is now safe for a bid.  That leaves 3 teams with work to do in the conference tournament.


Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8 SEC)

Computer profile:  RPI 66, SOS 66.  2-4 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt and Alabama).  8-8 vs Top 100.  2 sub-100 losses (Georgia, @Auburn).  6-7 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  Miss State is one of the biggest enigmas this season.  They looked like a lock 4 weeks ago, but a horrible 2 week stretch has really put a dent in their NCAA hopes.  One thing working in Miss State's favor is their record against fellow bubble teams:  the Bulldogs have gone 4-1 against Arizona, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss.  As with many other teams, Miss State needs 2 wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt to secure their spot in the NCAA field.  Anything less and they'll have to sweat it out on Sunday.

NCAA chances:  50/50


Tennessee (18-13, 10-6 SEC)

Computer profile:  RPI 76, SOS 31.  4-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Florida x2, Vanderbilt, Connecticut).  7-9 vs Top 100.  4 sub-100 losses (@Oakland, Austin Peay, @Charleston, @Georgia).  3-10 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  Clearly, if this was just about computer profiles, Tennessee would be out.  But the fact is, most of those bad losses came early in the season, and Tennessee has been a completely different team since Stokes was cleared to play.  The fact is, with him in the lineup, Tennessee was able to tie Florida and Vanderbilt for 2nd place in the SEC and go 3-1 against those 2 teams.  The Vols are going to be a great barometer for how much emphasis the committee puts on how teams play early in the season and how teams play with incomplete rosters.

IMO, Tennessee has to make the finals to have a realistic chance at an at-large.

NCAA chances:  Below average


Ole Miss (18-12, 8-8 SEC)

Computer profile:  RPI 59, SOS 39.  1-6 vs Top 50 (win over Alabama).  6-11 vs Top 100.  1 sub-100 loss (@Auburn).  6-10 road/neutral.

Bottom line:  Despite being virtually invisible for the last month of the season, Ole Miss has quietly worked themselves back onto the bubble.  In the end, I think the Rebels' lack of signature wins will doom them to the NIT.  If they can make the SEC finals, though, they'll certainly be in the running for one of the last spots in the field.

NCAA chances:  Slim