Midwest (#1 Overall)
Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Iowa State
9 Purdue
Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State
Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State
Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas
2 Duke
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Connecticut
Albuquerque, NM
5 Vanderbilt
12 Washington vs Drexel
4 Florida State
13 Belmont
Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier
3 Marquette
14 Davidson
Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Colorado State vs South Florida
4 Indiana
13 Ohio
Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Montana
Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh
South (#3 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama
Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Louisville
13 Colorado
Columbus, OH
6 San Diego State
11 Southern Miss
3 Michigan
14 St. Bonaventure
Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard
2 Missouri
15 Long Island
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Selection Sunday Bracket Predictions
For this bracket I have assumed that tomorrow's winners will be Xavier, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Michigan State. This is not my final bracket; I will post that during the Big 10 Championship.
South (#1 Overall)
Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Iowa State
9 Purdue
Albuquerque, NM
5 San Diego State
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State
Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State
Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas
2 Duke
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Connecticut
Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs Drexel
4 Florida State
13 Ohio
Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier
3 Marquette
14 Davidson
Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 South Florida vs NC State
Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Montana
Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh
Midwest (#3 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama
Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Colorado State
4 Louisville
13 Colorado
Columbus, OH
6 Vanderbilt
11 Southern Miss
3 Michigan
14 Belmont
Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard
2 Missouri
15 Long Island
South (#1 Overall)
Louisville, KY
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Iowa State
9 Purdue
Albuquerque, NM
5 San Diego State
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State
Pittsburgh, PA
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Wisconsin
14 New Mexico State
Greensboro, NC
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas
2 Duke
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
Omaha, NE
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Connecticut
Portland, OR
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs Drexel
4 Florida State
13 Ohio
Nashville, TN
6 St. Mary's
11 Xavier
3 Marquette
14 Davidson
Columbus, OH
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
Nashville, TN
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 South Florida vs NC State
Albuquerque, NM
6 Creighton
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Montana
Louisville, KY
7 UNLV
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Lehigh
Midwest (#3 Overall)
Greensboro, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Gonzaga
9 Alabama
Portland, OR
5 Wichita State
12 Colorado State
4 Louisville
13 Colorado
Columbus, OH
6 Vanderbilt
11 Southern Miss
3 Michigan
14 Belmont
Omaha, NE
7 Cincinnati
10 Harvard
2 Missouri
15 Long Island
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Bubble Rankings and Breakdown
With Xavier's win over St. Louis, they become the projected automatic bid from the A-10. Even with a loss in the finals, I believe Xavier is now safely in the field. That leaves 6 bids, with 8 teams (9 if Long Beach State loses tonight) still in the running.
Here's my ranking of the teams on the bubble from most likely to least likely to get in. I have drawn in the cutoff lines to show who gets knocked out if UC Santa Barbara and/or St. Bonaventure are able to win their conference tournaments.
West Virginia
Colorado State
South Florida
(Long Beach State)
Washington
------------------
Drexel
NC State
------------------
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
The teams I feel comfortable putting into the field are West Virginia and Colorado State. Both teams have less than 20 wins against D-1 schools, but there are too many positives on their resumes to think they'll miss the field with this weak bubble.
After that, things start to become real fuzzy. Out of the remaining teams, the one I feel best about is South Florida. While they have some ugly marks on their resume (6-6 OOC, 2-9 vs Top 50, 6-11 road/neutral), they're one of hte few bubble teams that actually played well down the stretch. They went 7-3 in their last 10 games, and both Top 50 wins have come within the last two weeks. Combine that with their 12-6 conference record and head-to-head win over Seton Hall, and I would be fairly surprised (but not shocked) if USF wasn't in the bracket tomorrow.
Another team that's nearly impossible to figure out is Washington. The Huskies have the worst computer profile of any team on this list, with an RPI of 70 and 0 Top 50 wins. Nevertheless, they did win the Pac 12 regular season title, and history has shown us the Selection Committee puts a great deal of value on conference titles. Time and time again, there have been bubble teams with nothing good on their resume except being the regular season champs of a top 10 league (i.e., UAB last year), and every single time those teams have made it into the field. I'm just not willing to bet against history, because Washington would the first team in the 64 team era to win a Top 10 conference and not make the NCAA field.
This might be picking with my heart more than my head, but I think it would be an absolute sham if NC State, Mississippi State, or Seton Hall, teams that had multiple chances to take care of business and didn't, got into the field, while a Drexel team that went 25-2 after doing poorly in November is relegated to the NIT. It might end up being the wrong decision, but I have to go with the Dragons over those teams.
That leaves the three aforementioned teams, NC State, Miss State, and Seton Hall, for the last spot. It's really splitting hairs at this point because they all have so many ugly spots on their resumes, but I've decided to go with NC State. The 1-8 record vs Top 50 with the 1 win being Texas is a huge eye sore, but unlike the other two the Wolfpack played well down the stretch and had a winning record away from home (9-6 road/neutral).
While there is, IMO, a definite gap between these squads and everyone else, there are numerous teams that cannot be ruled out as possible "shocker" inclusions tomorrow:
Iona, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Miami, Middle Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Marshall
I can't really make a compelling case for any of these teams to be in the field, but I can't rule any of them out either.
All in all, this is easily the most difficult year to predict the field since I started doing bracketology. My Selection Sunday bracket will be posted right after the conclusion of the WAC championship.
Here's my ranking of the teams on the bubble from most likely to least likely to get in. I have drawn in the cutoff lines to show who gets knocked out if UC Santa Barbara and/or St. Bonaventure are able to win their conference tournaments.
West Virginia
Colorado State
South Florida
(Long Beach State)
Washington
------------------
Drexel
NC State
------------------
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
The teams I feel comfortable putting into the field are West Virginia and Colorado State. Both teams have less than 20 wins against D-1 schools, but there are too many positives on their resumes to think they'll miss the field with this weak bubble.
After that, things start to become real fuzzy. Out of the remaining teams, the one I feel best about is South Florida. While they have some ugly marks on their resume (6-6 OOC, 2-9 vs Top 50, 6-11 road/neutral), they're one of hte few bubble teams that actually played well down the stretch. They went 7-3 in their last 10 games, and both Top 50 wins have come within the last two weeks. Combine that with their 12-6 conference record and head-to-head win over Seton Hall, and I would be fairly surprised (but not shocked) if USF wasn't in the bracket tomorrow.
Another team that's nearly impossible to figure out is Washington. The Huskies have the worst computer profile of any team on this list, with an RPI of 70 and 0 Top 50 wins. Nevertheless, they did win the Pac 12 regular season title, and history has shown us the Selection Committee puts a great deal of value on conference titles. Time and time again, there have been bubble teams with nothing good on their resume except being the regular season champs of a top 10 league (i.e., UAB last year), and every single time those teams have made it into the field. I'm just not willing to bet against history, because Washington would the first team in the 64 team era to win a Top 10 conference and not make the NCAA field.
This might be picking with my heart more than my head, but I think it would be an absolute sham if NC State, Mississippi State, or Seton Hall, teams that had multiple chances to take care of business and didn't, got into the field, while a Drexel team that went 25-2 after doing poorly in November is relegated to the NIT. It might end up being the wrong decision, but I have to go with the Dragons over those teams.
That leaves the three aforementioned teams, NC State, Miss State, and Seton Hall, for the last spot. It's really splitting hairs at this point because they all have so many ugly spots on their resumes, but I've decided to go with NC State. The 1-8 record vs Top 50 with the 1 win being Texas is a huge eye sore, but unlike the other two the Wolfpack played well down the stretch and had a winning record away from home (9-6 road/neutral).
While there is, IMO, a definite gap between these squads and everyone else, there are numerous teams that cannot be ruled out as possible "shocker" inclusions tomorrow:
Iona, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, Miami, Middle Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Marshall
I can't really make a compelling case for any of these teams to be in the field, but I can't rule any of them out either.
All in all, this is easily the most difficult year to predict the field since I started doing bracketology. My Selection Sunday bracket will be posted right after the conclusion of the WAC championship.
March 10 Bubble Update
Here's a general snapshot of where things stand as of 4pm EST. A full ranking and breakdown of the bubble will be coming at the conclusion of tonight's games.
I believe Long Beach State would be right on the bubble with a loss tonight, which leaves 2 more potential bid stealers (UC Santa Barbara and St. Bonaventure).
Projected Automatic Bids (the auto bid in every remaining conference tournament goes to the highest remaining seed)
North Carolina, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Missouri, Arizona, Kentucky, San Diego State, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Creighton, Memphis, Harvard, Murray State, Loyola-Maryland, Vermont, Belmont, Montana, UNC Asheville, Long Beach State, VCU, Detroit, Akron, Norfolk State, Long Island, Lehigh, Davidson, Lamar, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Mississippi Valley State
At-large locks (24 at-large bids)
Duke, Florida State, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, UNLV, New Mexico, Temple, Gonzaga, Wichita State
Teams that look Safe (6 at-large bids)
Virginia, Connecticut, Texas, California, Southern Miss, Brigham Young
Bubble (10/11 teams for 7 bids)
NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Seton Hall, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss (with a win vs Vanderbilt), Colorado State, Xavier, Drexel, Iona
At-large Longshots
Northwestern, Miami (FL), Arizona/Colorado loser, Oregon, Tennessee, Ole Miss (with a loss vs Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Marshall
I believe Long Beach State would be right on the bubble with a loss tonight, which leaves 2 more potential bid stealers (UC Santa Barbara and St. Bonaventure).
Projected Automatic Bids (the auto bid in every remaining conference tournament goes to the highest remaining seed)
North Carolina, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Missouri, Arizona, Kentucky, San Diego State, St. Louis, St. Mary's, Creighton, Memphis, Harvard, Murray State, Loyola-Maryland, Vermont, Belmont, Montana, UNC Asheville, Long Beach State, VCU, Detroit, Akron, Norfolk State, Long Island, Lehigh, Davidson, Lamar, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Mississippi Valley State
At-large locks (24 at-large bids)
Duke, Florida State, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, UNLV, New Mexico, Temple, Gonzaga, Wichita State
Teams that look Safe (6 at-large bids)
Virginia, Connecticut, Texas, California, Southern Miss, Brigham Young
Bubble (10/11 teams for 7 bids)
NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Seton Hall, Washington, Mississippi State, Ole Miss (with a win vs Vanderbilt), Colorado State, Xavier, Drexel, Iona
At-large Longshots
Northwestern, Miami (FL), Arizona/Colorado loser, Oregon, Tennessee, Ole Miss (with a loss vs Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Marshall
Projections for 3/10/12
Ole Miss is currently the last team in the field, but must beat Vanderbilt to hold onto their spot.
First Four Out: Mississippi State, NC State, Seton Hall, Northwestern
Next Four Out: Iona, Miami (FL), Tennessee, Oral Roberts
Still Alive: Oregon, Middle Tennessee, Nevada
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Gonzaga
9 Connecticut
5 San Diego State
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 Akron
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Michigan
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Missouri
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs South Florida
4 Florida State
13 South Dakota State
6 St. Mary's
11 Colorado State
3 Marquette
14 New Mexico State
7 Vanderbilt
10 Texas
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Iowa State
9 St. Louis
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Arizona
6 Creighton
11 Southern Miss
3 Wisconsin
14 Davidson
7 Notre Dame
10 Brigham Young
2 Duke
15 Lehigh
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Kansas State
9 Purdue
5 Wichita State
12 Xavier
4 Louisville
13 Drexel vs Ole Miss
6 Cincinnati
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Belmont
7 UNLV
10 Harvard
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
First Four Out: Mississippi State, NC State, Seton Hall, Northwestern
Next Four Out: Iona, Miami (FL), Tennessee, Oral Roberts
Still Alive: Oregon, Middle Tennessee, Nevada
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Gonzaga
9 Connecticut
5 San Diego State
12 VCU
4 Georgetown
13 Akron
6 Temple
11 West Virginia
3 Michigan
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Virginia
2 Missouri
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Lamar
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 Washington vs South Florida
4 Florida State
13 South Dakota State
6 St. Mary's
11 Colorado State
3 Marquette
14 New Mexico State
7 Vanderbilt
10 Texas
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Iowa State
9 St. Louis
5 Florida
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Arizona
6 Creighton
11 Southern Miss
3 Wisconsin
14 Davidson
7 Notre Dame
10 Brigham Young
2 Duke
15 Lehigh
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Kansas State
9 Purdue
5 Wichita State
12 Xavier
4 Louisville
13 Drexel vs Ole Miss
6 Cincinnati
11 California
3 Baylor
14 Belmont
7 UNLV
10 Harvard
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
Friday, March 9, 2012
East Coast Bubble Update
Now that the bubble picture is becoming clearer, here's a summary of the bubble teams in the (predominately) East Coast conferences: the ACC, Big East, and Atlantic 10.
ACC
Despite Virginia losing today and having their RPI fall out of the Top 50, I think the signature win over Michigan keeps the Cavs in the field. Their seed will probably be 10 or worse, but with this weak bubble I don't see any way Virginia is left out of the field entirely.
NC State (22-11, 9-7 ACC)
Computer profile: RPI 48, SOS 31. 1-7 vs Top 50 (win over Texas). 6-9 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Georgia Tech, Clemson). 9-5 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The road/neutral record and sweep over Miami is nice, but other than that the resume is very barren. Fact is, NC State had multiple opportunities to pick up a signature win with home games against Syracuse, UNC, Florida State, and Indiana. It's really hard to justify giving an at-large bid to a team that went 0-4 in those home games. Obviously, if they beat UNC tomorrow this is all moot and they're in the field.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Miami (FL) (19-12, 9-7 ACC)
Computer profile: RPI 55, SOS 47. 2-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Duke, Florida State). 3-11 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Maryland). 6-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The Hurricanes have signature wins over Duke and FSU, but the rest of their profile is just awful. A team with a win percentage that bad vs the Top 100 getting an at-large is unheard of, plus they were swept by fellow bubble team NC State during the regular season. Unless the committee decides to make signature wins the most important factor for bubble teams, it's nearly impossible to see Miami getting in at this point.
NCAA chances: Slim
Big East
With Connecticut and Cincinnati having successful Big East tournaments, 3 teams are now left on the bubble.
West Virginia (19-13, 9-9 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 56, SOS 14. 5-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Akron, Kansas State, Marshall, Cincinnati), 9-11 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Kent State, @St. John's). 8-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The Mountaineers have really struggled down the stretch, only managing a 4-8 record in their last 12 games. The committee says last 12 games is no longer a factor, but we'll see how true that is on Sunday. If they're serious and it doesn't matter, then based on their overall profile, WVU will be in the field. If it does matter, then WVU will be in the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Good
South Florida (20-13, 12-6 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 54, SOS 26. 2-9 vs Top 50 (wins over Cincinnati and Louisville). 6-10 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Old Dominion, Penn State, Auburn). 6-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: USF blew a golden opportunity to lock up an NCAA bid last night against Notre Dame. The bad losses will not carry much weight because all 3 came before December 15. Just like West Virginia, the Bulls will be a good litmus test for what the committee finds important. If the committee puts more weight on conference play than non-con, USF will be in the field. If they don't, USF will be in the NIT. The committee did leave out an Alabama team last year that went 12-4 in the SEC, but that team had an RPI in the 80s, while South Florida's RPI is much more normal for a bubble team.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Seton Hall (20-12, 8-10 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 65, SOS 51. 3-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Connecticut, VCU). 7-9 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Villanova, Rutgers, Depaul).
Bottom line: Seton Hall has a signature win over Georgetown, but other than that their resume is very barren. Fact is, from top to bottom the Big East is not as good as it's been the last few years. An 8-10 record in this league will not hold much weight with the committee (UConn gets a pass because they played a tougher conference schedule and challenged themselves out of conference). At the end of the day, I think South Florida has an edge over Seton Hall thanks to their head-to-head win against the Pirates. Additionally, their bad losses all came in the last 2 months of the year. I know committee says when the wins and losses occur doesn't matter, but I have a hard time believing the human element won't come into play and dissuade them from putting the Pirates in the field.
NCAA chances: Below Average
Atlantic 10
Temple and St. Louis are locked into the tournament field, which leaves Xavier as the only bubble team in the league. Dayton might have had a chance to get in, but not now after losing in the A-10 quarters.
Xavier (20-11, 10-6 A-10)
Computer profile: RPI 57, SOS 47. 3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati). 7-10 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (Hawaii). 6-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: It's a tale of 2 seasons for Xavier. At the time of the Cincinnati brawl, the Musketeers had moved to 8-0 on the season with 3 top 50 wins. Since then, Xavier has gone 12-11, with no Top 50 wins and an embarassing loss against sub-200 Hawaii. Here's another case study for how much emphasis the committee puts on conference play. The Musketeers need to beat St. Louis tomorrow to feel good about their chances. If they don't, they'll be a very nervous group on Sunday.
NCAA chances: 50/50
ACC
Despite Virginia losing today and having their RPI fall out of the Top 50, I think the signature win over Michigan keeps the Cavs in the field. Their seed will probably be 10 or worse, but with this weak bubble I don't see any way Virginia is left out of the field entirely.
NC State (22-11, 9-7 ACC)
Computer profile: RPI 48, SOS 31. 1-7 vs Top 50 (win over Texas). 6-9 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Georgia Tech, Clemson). 9-5 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The road/neutral record and sweep over Miami is nice, but other than that the resume is very barren. Fact is, NC State had multiple opportunities to pick up a signature win with home games against Syracuse, UNC, Florida State, and Indiana. It's really hard to justify giving an at-large bid to a team that went 0-4 in those home games. Obviously, if they beat UNC tomorrow this is all moot and they're in the field.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Miami (FL) (19-12, 9-7 ACC)
Computer profile: RPI 55, SOS 47. 2-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Duke, Florida State). 3-11 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Maryland). 6-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The Hurricanes have signature wins over Duke and FSU, but the rest of their profile is just awful. A team with a win percentage that bad vs the Top 100 getting an at-large is unheard of, plus they were swept by fellow bubble team NC State during the regular season. Unless the committee decides to make signature wins the most important factor for bubble teams, it's nearly impossible to see Miami getting in at this point.
NCAA chances: Slim
Big East
With Connecticut and Cincinnati having successful Big East tournaments, 3 teams are now left on the bubble.
West Virginia (19-13, 9-9 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 56, SOS 14. 5-8 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Akron, Kansas State, Marshall, Cincinnati), 9-11 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Kent State, @St. John's). 8-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The Mountaineers have really struggled down the stretch, only managing a 4-8 record in their last 12 games. The committee says last 12 games is no longer a factor, but we'll see how true that is on Sunday. If they're serious and it doesn't matter, then based on their overall profile, WVU will be in the field. If it does matter, then WVU will be in the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Good
South Florida (20-13, 12-6 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 54, SOS 26. 2-9 vs Top 50 (wins over Cincinnati and Louisville). 6-10 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Old Dominion, Penn State, Auburn). 6-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: USF blew a golden opportunity to lock up an NCAA bid last night against Notre Dame. The bad losses will not carry much weight because all 3 came before December 15. Just like West Virginia, the Bulls will be a good litmus test for what the committee finds important. If the committee puts more weight on conference play than non-con, USF will be in the field. If they don't, USF will be in the NIT. The committee did leave out an Alabama team last year that went 12-4 in the SEC, but that team had an RPI in the 80s, while South Florida's RPI is much more normal for a bubble team.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Seton Hall (20-12, 8-10 Big East)
Computer profile: RPI 65, SOS 51. 3-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Georgetown, Connecticut, VCU). 7-9 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Villanova, Rutgers, Depaul).
Bottom line: Seton Hall has a signature win over Georgetown, but other than that their resume is very barren. Fact is, from top to bottom the Big East is not as good as it's been the last few years. An 8-10 record in this league will not hold much weight with the committee (UConn gets a pass because they played a tougher conference schedule and challenged themselves out of conference). At the end of the day, I think South Florida has an edge over Seton Hall thanks to their head-to-head win against the Pirates. Additionally, their bad losses all came in the last 2 months of the year. I know committee says when the wins and losses occur doesn't matter, but I have a hard time believing the human element won't come into play and dissuade them from putting the Pirates in the field.
NCAA chances: Below Average
Atlantic 10
Temple and St. Louis are locked into the tournament field, which leaves Xavier as the only bubble team in the league. Dayton might have had a chance to get in, but not now after losing in the A-10 quarters.
Xavier (20-11, 10-6 A-10)
Computer profile: RPI 57, SOS 47. 3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati). 7-10 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (Hawaii). 6-8 road/neutral.
Bottom line: It's a tale of 2 seasons for Xavier. At the time of the Cincinnati brawl, the Musketeers had moved to 8-0 on the season with 3 top 50 wins. Since then, Xavier has gone 12-11, with no Top 50 wins and an embarassing loss against sub-200 Hawaii. Here's another case study for how much emphasis the committee puts on conference play. The Musketeers need to beat St. Louis tomorrow to feel good about their chances. If they don't, they'll be a very nervous group on Sunday.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Thursday, March 8, 2012
March 8 Bubble Update
Today's post will focus on the bubble teams in the Big 10 and SEC.
Big 10
6 teams have locked up bids, making Northwestern the only team with work to do in the conference tournament.
Northwestern (18-12, 8-10 Big 10)
Computer profile: RPI 47, SOS 12. 1-10 vs Top 50 (win over Michigan State). 5-12 vs Top 100. no sub-100 losses. 7-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Northwestern does have solid RPI and SOS numbers, and the win over the Spartans might be the best win for any bubble team. The record against Top 50 and Top 100 are huge eye sores, however. Northwestern has to beat Minnesota and Michigan to feel safe on Selection Sunday. A loss against Michigan would leave them right near the cut line, while a loss against Minnesota would almost certainly send them to the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Fair
SEC
With the lack of bid stealers early on in Championship Week, I believe Alabama is now safe for a bid. That leaves 3 teams with work to do in the conference tournament.
Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 66, SOS 66. 2-4 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt and Alabama). 8-8 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Georgia, @Auburn). 6-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Miss State is one of the biggest enigmas this season. They looked like a lock 4 weeks ago, but a horrible 2 week stretch has really put a dent in their NCAA hopes. One thing working in Miss State's favor is their record against fellow bubble teams: the Bulldogs have gone 4-1 against Arizona, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. As with many other teams, Miss State needs 2 wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt to secure their spot in the NCAA field. Anything less and they'll have to sweat it out on Sunday.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Tennessee (18-13, 10-6 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 76, SOS 31. 4-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Florida x2, Vanderbilt, Connecticut). 7-9 vs Top 100. 4 sub-100 losses (@Oakland, Austin Peay, @Charleston, @Georgia). 3-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Clearly, if this was just about computer profiles, Tennessee would be out. But the fact is, most of those bad losses came early in the season, and Tennessee has been a completely different team since Stokes was cleared to play. The fact is, with him in the lineup, Tennessee was able to tie Florida and Vanderbilt for 2nd place in the SEC and go 3-1 against those 2 teams. The Vols are going to be a great barometer for how much emphasis the committee puts on how teams play early in the season and how teams play with incomplete rosters.
IMO, Tennessee has to make the finals to have a realistic chance at an at-large.
NCAA chances: Below average
Ole Miss (18-12, 8-8 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 59, SOS 39. 1-6 vs Top 50 (win over Alabama). 6-11 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Auburn). 6-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Despite being virtually invisible for the last month of the season, Ole Miss has quietly worked themselves back onto the bubble. In the end, I think the Rebels' lack of signature wins will doom them to the NIT. If they can make the SEC finals, though, they'll certainly be in the running for one of the last spots in the field.
NCAA chances: Slim
Big 10
6 teams have locked up bids, making Northwestern the only team with work to do in the conference tournament.
Northwestern (18-12, 8-10 Big 10)
Computer profile: RPI 47, SOS 12. 1-10 vs Top 50 (win over Michigan State). 5-12 vs Top 100. no sub-100 losses. 7-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Northwestern does have solid RPI and SOS numbers, and the win over the Spartans might be the best win for any bubble team. The record against Top 50 and Top 100 are huge eye sores, however. Northwestern has to beat Minnesota and Michigan to feel safe on Selection Sunday. A loss against Michigan would leave them right near the cut line, while a loss against Minnesota would almost certainly send them to the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Fair
SEC
With the lack of bid stealers early on in Championship Week, I believe Alabama is now safe for a bid. That leaves 3 teams with work to do in the conference tournament.
Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 66, SOS 66. 2-4 vs Top 50 (wins over Vanderbilt and Alabama). 8-8 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (Georgia, @Auburn). 6-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Miss State is one of the biggest enigmas this season. They looked like a lock 4 weeks ago, but a horrible 2 week stretch has really put a dent in their NCAA hopes. One thing working in Miss State's favor is their record against fellow bubble teams: the Bulldogs have gone 4-1 against Arizona, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. As with many other teams, Miss State needs 2 wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt to secure their spot in the NCAA field. Anything less and they'll have to sweat it out on Sunday.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Tennessee (18-13, 10-6 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 76, SOS 31. 4-7 vs Top 50 (wins over Florida x2, Vanderbilt, Connecticut). 7-9 vs Top 100. 4 sub-100 losses (@Oakland, Austin Peay, @Charleston, @Georgia). 3-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Clearly, if this was just about computer profiles, Tennessee would be out. But the fact is, most of those bad losses came early in the season, and Tennessee has been a completely different team since Stokes was cleared to play. The fact is, with him in the lineup, Tennessee was able to tie Florida and Vanderbilt for 2nd place in the SEC and go 3-1 against those 2 teams. The Vols are going to be a great barometer for how much emphasis the committee puts on how teams play early in the season and how teams play with incomplete rosters.
IMO, Tennessee has to make the finals to have a realistic chance at an at-large.
NCAA chances: Below average
Ole Miss (18-12, 8-8 SEC)
Computer profile: RPI 59, SOS 39. 1-6 vs Top 50 (win over Alabama). 6-11 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Auburn). 6-10 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Despite being virtually invisible for the last month of the season, Ole Miss has quietly worked themselves back onto the bubble. In the end, I think the Rebels' lack of signature wins will doom them to the NIT. If they can make the SEC finals, though, they'll certainly be in the running for one of the last spots in the field.
NCAA chances: Slim
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Projections for 3/8/12
Some minor seed changes were necessary for the Big East, but other than that the only changes once again come on the 13-16 seed lines.
First Four Out: Oregon, Drexel, Seton Hall, Arizona
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Oral Roberts
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Notre Dame
11 Texas
3 Michigan
14 Davidson
7 Gonzaga
10 California
2 Missouri
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 West Virginia
4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada
6 Creighton
11 Washington
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 Iowa State
10 Harvard
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State
4 Temple
13 South Dakota State
6 Florida
11 South Florida
3 Baylor
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)
6 St. Mary's
11 Southern Miss
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 San Diego State
10 Connecticut
2 Duke
15 Lehigh
First Four Out: Oregon, Drexel, Seton Hall, Arizona
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Oral Roberts
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Notre Dame
11 Texas
3 Michigan
14 Davidson
7 Gonzaga
10 California
2 Missouri
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 West Virginia
4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada
6 Creighton
11 Washington
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 Iowa State
10 Harvard
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State
4 Temple
13 South Dakota State
6 Florida
11 South Florida
3 Baylor
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Norfolk State vs Western Kentucky
8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)
6 St. Mary's
11 Southern Miss
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 San Diego State
10 Connecticut
2 Duke
15 Lehigh
Western U.S. Bubble Update
Over the next three days I will be breaking down the bubble teams from conferences expected to receive multiple bids. Today's post will be about the 3 conferences west of the Mississippi: the Pac 12, MWC, and Big 12.
Pac 12
While nobody in the Pac 12 has locked up a bid, I ultimately think they will end up with 3 bids.
Washington (21-9, 14-4 Pac 12)
Computer profile: RPI 54, SOS 82. 0-6 vs Top 50. 4-8 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@UCLA). 6-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Despite the awful computer profile, I think the Huskies are in good shape for an NCAA bid. They won the Pac 12 outright, and since the field expanded to 64 no outright champion of a Top 10 conference has ever failed to make the NCAA tournament. And yes, as bad as the Pac 12 was this year, it was still rated as one of the Top 10 leagues. Expect the Huskies to be in the bracket on Sunday regardless of what happens in the Pac 12 tournament.
NCAA Chances: Very good
California (23-8, 13-5 Pac 12)
Computer profile: RPI 37, SOS 94. 0-3 vs Top 50. 7-6 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (@Oregon State, @Washington State). 6-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: California would be locked into the field had they not dropped their last 2 games. Even though they don't count as Top 50, I think their roads win at Washington and Oregon were quality victories. As it is, the lack of a signature win is the only thing holding Cal back from locking up a bid. They're probably in regardless of what happens in the Pac 12 tournament, but they need to make the finals to be absolutely safe.
NCAA chances: Good
Oregon (22-8, 13-5 Pac 12)
Computer profile: RPI 51, SOS 91. 0-5 vs Top 50. 5-7 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (Oregon State). 7-5 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The computer profile is clearly not good, but the Ducks get a bit of a bump because they have been playing the best basketball in the Pac 12 since finally getting their full roster intact. I think Oregon has to make the Pac 12 finals to get in, and at that point they would probably be wise to win it and erase all doubt.
NCAA chances: Fair
Arizona (21-10, 12-6 Pac 12)
Computer profile: RPI 78, SOS 119. 1-3 vs Top 50 (win over California). 5-8 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (@UCLA, @Arizona State). 7-7 road/neutral
Bottom line: Arizona really shot themselves in the foot by losing to Arizona State (RPI 248) on the last game of the regular season. The Wildcats have to make the Pac 12 championship to have a chance, and even then they might need the auto-bid to make the field.
NCAA chances: Slim
Mountain West
3 teams have already locked up bids, which means Colorado State is the only bubble team in this league.
Colorado State (18-10, 8-6 MWC)
Computer profile: RPI 22, SOS 8. 3-5 vs Top 50 (wins over SDSU, New Mexico, UNLV). 8-9 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Boise State). 5-9 road/neutral
Bottom line: The Rams' computer profile is excellent, but the overall record and road/neutral record in a non-power league leave CSU's future in doubt. A trip to the Mountain West finals would probably seal the deal, but they cannot afford to lose their first game against TCU. It would be pretty hypocritcal to put 8-10 Big East and Big Ten teams in the field while leaving out a Colorado State team with a top 10 SOS, but I wouldn't put it past the committee.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Big 12
5 teams have locked up bids, which means Texas is the only bubble team in this league.
Texas (19-12, 9-9 Big 12)
Computer profile: RPI 52, SOS 22. 3-9 vs Top 50 (wins over Temple, Iowa State, Kansas State). 4-10 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses. 4-9 road/neutral
Bottom line: If you've seen Texas play the last two months, then you know the Longhorns are better than their record. Texas is a classic case of a team that passes the eye test but has a weak resume. Traditionally, the committee would put these teams in the 8/9 slots, but with the addition of the First Four, that seems like a more likely spot. A win over Iowa State will put the Longhorns in good shape for a bid. A loss will leave them hoping there are no bid stealers this weekend, as they would be one of the last teams in or out.
NCAA chances: Decent
Pac 12
While nobody in the Pac 12 has locked up a bid, I ultimately think they will end up with 3 bids.
Washington (21-9, 14-4 Pac 12)
Computer profile: RPI 54, SOS 82. 0-6 vs Top 50. 4-8 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@UCLA). 6-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: Despite the awful computer profile, I think the Huskies are in good shape for an NCAA bid. They won the Pac 12 outright, and since the field expanded to 64 no outright champion of a Top 10 conference has ever failed to make the NCAA tournament. And yes, as bad as the Pac 12 was this year, it was still rated as one of the Top 10 leagues. Expect the Huskies to be in the bracket on Sunday regardless of what happens in the Pac 12 tournament.
NCAA Chances: Very good
California (23-8, 13-5 Pac 12)
Computer profile: RPI 37, SOS 94. 0-3 vs Top 50. 7-6 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (@Oregon State, @Washington State). 6-7 road/neutral.
Bottom line: California would be locked into the field had they not dropped their last 2 games. Even though they don't count as Top 50, I think their roads win at Washington and Oregon were quality victories. As it is, the lack of a signature win is the only thing holding Cal back from locking up a bid. They're probably in regardless of what happens in the Pac 12 tournament, but they need to make the finals to be absolutely safe.
NCAA chances: Good
Oregon (22-8, 13-5 Pac 12)
Computer profile: RPI 51, SOS 91. 0-5 vs Top 50. 5-7 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (Oregon State). 7-5 road/neutral.
Bottom line: The computer profile is clearly not good, but the Ducks get a bit of a bump because they have been playing the best basketball in the Pac 12 since finally getting their full roster intact. I think Oregon has to make the Pac 12 finals to get in, and at that point they would probably be wise to win it and erase all doubt.
NCAA chances: Fair
Arizona (21-10, 12-6 Pac 12)
Computer profile: RPI 78, SOS 119. 1-3 vs Top 50 (win over California). 5-8 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (@UCLA, @Arizona State). 7-7 road/neutral
Bottom line: Arizona really shot themselves in the foot by losing to Arizona State (RPI 248) on the last game of the regular season. The Wildcats have to make the Pac 12 championship to have a chance, and even then they might need the auto-bid to make the field.
NCAA chances: Slim
Mountain West
3 teams have already locked up bids, which means Colorado State is the only bubble team in this league.
Colorado State (18-10, 8-6 MWC)
Computer profile: RPI 22, SOS 8. 3-5 vs Top 50 (wins over SDSU, New Mexico, UNLV). 8-9 vs Top 100. 1 sub-100 loss (@Boise State). 5-9 road/neutral
Bottom line: The Rams' computer profile is excellent, but the overall record and road/neutral record in a non-power league leave CSU's future in doubt. A trip to the Mountain West finals would probably seal the deal, but they cannot afford to lose their first game against TCU. It would be pretty hypocritcal to put 8-10 Big East and Big Ten teams in the field while leaving out a Colorado State team with a top 10 SOS, but I wouldn't put it past the committee.
NCAA chances: 50/50
Big 12
5 teams have locked up bids, which means Texas is the only bubble team in this league.
Texas (19-12, 9-9 Big 12)
Computer profile: RPI 52, SOS 22. 3-9 vs Top 50 (wins over Temple, Iowa State, Kansas State). 4-10 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses. 4-9 road/neutral
Bottom line: If you've seen Texas play the last two months, then you know the Longhorns are better than their record. Texas is a classic case of a team that passes the eye test but has a weak resume. Traditionally, the committee would put these teams in the 8/9 slots, but with the addition of the First Four, that seems like a more likely spot. A win over Iowa State will put the Longhorns in good shape for a bid. A loss will leave them hoping there are no bid stealers this weekend, as they would be one of the last teams in or out.
NCAA chances: Decent
Projections for 3/7/12
Once again, the only changes to the bracket come in the 13-16 seeds. Seton Hall moves up slightly with their win over Providence, but I just cannot envision them making the field unless they beat Louisville today.
First Four Out: Seton Hall, Oregon, Drexel, Arizona
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Middle Tennessee
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Notre Dame
11 Texas
3 Michigan
14 Davidson
7 Gonzaga
10 California
2 Missouri
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 South Florida
4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada
6 Creighton
11 Washington
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 Iowa State
10 Harvard
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State
4 Temple
13 South Dakota State
6 Florida
11 West Virginia
3 Baylor
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Western Kentucky vs Savannah State
8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)
6 St. Mary's
11 Connecticut
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 San Diego State
10 Southern Miss
2 Duke
15 Bucknell
First Four Out: Seton Hall, Oregon, Drexel, Arizona
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Middle Tennessee
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 Stony Brook vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Notre Dame
11 Texas
3 Michigan
14 Davidson
7 Gonzaga
10 California
2 Missouri
15 Detroit
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 South Florida
4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada
6 Creighton
11 Washington
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 Iowa State
10 Harvard
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State
4 Temple
13 South Dakota State
6 Florida
11 West Virginia
3 Baylor
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Western Kentucky vs Savannah State
8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)
6 St. Mary's
11 Connecticut
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 San Diego State
10 Southern Miss
2 Duke
15 Bucknell
Monday, March 5, 2012
March 6 Bubble Update
This post will discuss the bubble teams that have already lost in their conference tournaments. Teams are listed in order from most likely to least likely to make the field. All statistics courtesy of warrennolan.com.
Brigham Young (23-8, 12-4 WCC)
Computer Profile: RPI 47, SOS 95. 3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Gonzaga, Nevada, Oregon). 5-6 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (@Utah State, Loyola-Marymount). 12-5 road/neutral
Bottom Line: BYU's profile is pretty favorable when compared with the power conference bubble teams. If today was Selection Sunday, the Cougars would definitely be in the field. Unfortunately for them, it's not, and alot of those resumes are going to improve between now and Sunday. With that being said, while I would not be surprised to see them fall into 12 seed/first four territory, I would be very surprised if they missed the tournament altogether.
NCAA Chances: Good (~80%)
Drexel (27-6, 16-2 CAA)
Computer Profile: RPI 66, SOS 210. 1-2 vs Top 50 (win over VCU). 4-3 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Norfolk State, @Delaware, @Georgia State). 14-6 road/neutral
Bottom Line: While the computer profile is lacking, Drexel gets a bump because they went 25-2 after starting the year 2-4. If it were up to me, the Dragons would be in the field of 68. It isn't though, so the Dragons will have to wait and hope alot of bubble teams fall early in their conference tournaments.
NCAA Chances: Fair (~40%)
Iona (25-7, 15-3 MAAC)
Computer Profile: RPI 43, SOS 145. 1-1 vs Top 50 (win over Nevada). 5-3 vs Top 100. 4 sub-100 losses (@Hofstra, @Siena, Manhattan, Fairfield). 15-6 road/neutral
Bottom Line: Iona's computer profile is better than you would expect, which keeps them alive for an at-large bid. Unfortunately for the Gaels, they just don't have a signature win to offset that many bad losses.
NCAA Chances: Slim (~20%)
Oral Roberts (27-6, 17-1 Summit)
Computer Profile: RPI 49, SOS 188. 0-2 vs Top 50. 3-3 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (UTSA, @Oklahoma, Western Illinois). 12-6 road/neutral
Bottom Line: South Dakota State and Xavier are currently sitting at 51 and 57 in the RPI, so there's a good chance Oral Roberts will eventually end up with a top 50 win. Unfortunately for them, that is unlikely to change their fate. The Golden Eagles have had a great season, but they are very likely going to end up in the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Slim (~15%)
Middle Tennessee (25-6, 14-2 Sun Belt)
Computer Profile: RPI 59, SOS 184. 0-1 vs Top 50. 3-3 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (@UAB, @Western Kentucky, Arkansas State). 11-5 road/neutral
Bottom Line: 2 weeks ago Middle Tennessee appeared to be decent shape for an at-large bid. Now that they've ended the season with back-to-back bad losses against Western Kentucky and Arkansas State, however, I can't see them getting in with their best wins being Belmont, Akron, and Ole Miss.
NCAA Chances: Very Slim (~10%)
Brigham Young (23-8, 12-4 WCC)
Computer Profile: RPI 47, SOS 95. 3-6 vs Top 50 (wins over Gonzaga, Nevada, Oregon). 5-6 vs Top 100. 2 sub-100 losses (@Utah State, Loyola-Marymount). 12-5 road/neutral
Bottom Line: BYU's profile is pretty favorable when compared with the power conference bubble teams. If today was Selection Sunday, the Cougars would definitely be in the field. Unfortunately for them, it's not, and alot of those resumes are going to improve between now and Sunday. With that being said, while I would not be surprised to see them fall into 12 seed/first four territory, I would be very surprised if they missed the tournament altogether.
NCAA Chances: Good (~80%)
Drexel (27-6, 16-2 CAA)
Computer Profile: RPI 66, SOS 210. 1-2 vs Top 50 (win over VCU). 4-3 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (Norfolk State, @Delaware, @Georgia State). 14-6 road/neutral
Bottom Line: While the computer profile is lacking, Drexel gets a bump because they went 25-2 after starting the year 2-4. If it were up to me, the Dragons would be in the field of 68. It isn't though, so the Dragons will have to wait and hope alot of bubble teams fall early in their conference tournaments.
NCAA Chances: Fair (~40%)
Iona (25-7, 15-3 MAAC)
Computer Profile: RPI 43, SOS 145. 1-1 vs Top 50 (win over Nevada). 5-3 vs Top 100. 4 sub-100 losses (@Hofstra, @Siena, Manhattan, Fairfield). 15-6 road/neutral
Bottom Line: Iona's computer profile is better than you would expect, which keeps them alive for an at-large bid. Unfortunately for the Gaels, they just don't have a signature win to offset that many bad losses.
NCAA Chances: Slim (~20%)
Oral Roberts (27-6, 17-1 Summit)
Computer Profile: RPI 49, SOS 188. 0-2 vs Top 50. 3-3 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (UTSA, @Oklahoma, Western Illinois). 12-6 road/neutral
Bottom Line: South Dakota State and Xavier are currently sitting at 51 and 57 in the RPI, so there's a good chance Oral Roberts will eventually end up with a top 50 win. Unfortunately for them, that is unlikely to change their fate. The Golden Eagles have had a great season, but they are very likely going to end up in the NIT.
NCAA Chances: Slim (~15%)
Middle Tennessee (25-6, 14-2 Sun Belt)
Computer Profile: RPI 59, SOS 184. 0-1 vs Top 50. 3-3 vs Top 100. 3 sub-100 losses (@UAB, @Western Kentucky, Arkansas State). 11-5 road/neutral
Bottom Line: 2 weeks ago Middle Tennessee appeared to be decent shape for an at-large bid. Now that they've ended the season with back-to-back bad losses against Western Kentucky and Arkansas State, however, I can't see them getting in with their best wins being Belmont, Akron, and Ole Miss.
NCAA Chances: Very Slim (~10%)
Projections for 3/6/12
The only changes to today's bracket come in the 13-16 seed lines. Everyone else remains the same.
First Four Out: Oregon, Seton Hall, Drexel, Arizona
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Middle Tennessee
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 North Texas vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Notre Dame
11 Texas
3 Michigan
14 Davidson
7 Gonzaga
10 California
2 Missouri
15 Valparaiso
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 South Florida
4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada
6 Creighton
11 Washington
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 Iowa State
10 Harvard
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State
4 Temple
13 South Dakota State
6 Florida
11 West Virginia
3 Baylor
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State
8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miani (FL)
6 St. Mary's
11 Connecticut
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 San Diego State
10 Southern Miss
2 Duke
15 Bucknell
First Four Out: Oregon, Seton Hall, Drexel, Arizona
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Middle Tennessee
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 North Texas vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern
4 Florida State
13 VCU
6 Notre Dame
11 Texas
3 Michigan
14 Davidson
7 Gonzaga
10 California
2 Missouri
15 Valparaiso
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 South Florida
4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada
6 Creighton
11 Washington
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 Iowa State
10 Harvard
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 UNC Asheville
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State
4 Temple
13 South Dakota State
6 Florida
11 West Virginia
3 Baylor
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Long Island
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State
8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miani (FL)
6 St. Mary's
11 Connecticut
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 San Diego State
10 Southern Miss
2 Duke
15 Bucknell
Sunday, March 4, 2012
March 5 Bubble Update
This post is to provide a general overview of where things stand as of right now. I will provide a more detailed analysis of the bubble as teams begin to play in their conference tournaments. Teams that have already won automatic bids will not appear on this list.
Locks (32 Teams comprising 23 At-Large bids)
North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Temple, St. Louis, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Memphis
Should Be In, but Still Some Work to Do (6 Teams comprising 5 At-Large bids)
Cincinnati, Washington, California, Alabama, Southern Miss, Brigham Young
Projected Auto-Bid Winners that Would be on the Bubble
Harvard, Long Beach State, Drexel, Oral Roberts
Bubble (15 teams, 9 bids left)
Miami (FL), West Virginia, Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, Northwestern, Texas, Arizona, Oregon, Mississippi State, Xavier, Colorado State, VCU, Iona, Middle Tennessee
Teams on the Outside that Could Play Their Way Onto the Bubble
NC State, St. Joseph's, Dayton, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Central Florida
Locks (32 Teams comprising 23 At-Large bids)
North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Temple, St. Louis, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Memphis
Should Be In, but Still Some Work to Do (6 Teams comprising 5 At-Large bids)
Cincinnati, Washington, California, Alabama, Southern Miss, Brigham Young
Projected Auto-Bid Winners that Would be on the Bubble
Harvard, Long Beach State, Drexel, Oral Roberts
Bubble (15 teams, 9 bids left)
Miami (FL), West Virginia, Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, Northwestern, Texas, Arizona, Oregon, Mississippi State, Xavier, Colorado State, VCU, Iona, Middle Tennessee
Teams on the Outside that Could Play Their Way Onto the Bubble
NC State, St. Joseph's, Dayton, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Central Florida
Projections for 3/5/12
From now until Selection Sunday I will be releasing daily bracket projections and bubble updates.
First Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Seton Hall, Arizona
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Middle Tennessee
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern
4 Florida State
13 Drexel
6 Notre Dame
11 Texas
3 Michigan
14 Davidson
7 Gonzaga
10 California
2 Missouri
15 Valparaiso
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 South Florida
4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada
6 Creighton
11 Washington
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 Iowa State
10 Harvard
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 Long Island
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State
4 Temple
13 Oral Roberts
6 Florida
11 West Virginia
3 Baylor
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Denver
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State
8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)
6 St. Mary's
11 Connecticut
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 San Diego State
10 Southern Miss
2 Duke
15 Bucknell
First Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Seton Hall, Arizona
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Iona, NC State, Middle Tennessee
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Louisville
12 Xavier vs Northwestern
4 Florida State
13 Drexel
6 Notre Dame
11 Texas
3 Michigan
14 Davidson
7 Gonzaga
10 California
2 Missouri
15 Valparaiso
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 New Mexico
12 South Florida
4 Wisconsin
13 Nevada
6 Creighton
11 Washington
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 Iowa State
10 Harvard
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 Long Island
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 UNLV
12 Mississippi State
4 Temple
13 Oral Roberts
6 Florida
11 West Virginia
3 Baylor
14 Montana
7 Murray State
10 Brigham Young
2 Ohio State
15 Denver
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State
8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati
5 Wichita State
12 Long Beach State
4 Indiana
13 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)
6 St. Mary's
11 Connecticut
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 San Diego State
10 Southern Miss
2 Duke
15 Bucknell
Projections for 3/4/12
First Four Out: Northwestern, Oregon, VCU, Seton Hall
Next Four Out: Tennessee, NC State, Dayton, Central Florida
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Iowa State
9 California
5 UNLV
12 Long Beach State
4 Florida State
13 Xavier vs Mississippi State
6 St. Mary's
11 West Virginia
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 Murray State
10 Southern Miss
2 Ohio State
15 Bucknell
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Wichita State
12 South Florida
4 Wisconsin
13 Drexel
6 New Mexico
11 Connecticut
3 Baylor
14 Nevada
7 Vanderbilt
10 Brigham Young
2 Michigan State
15 Davidson
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 Long Island
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 Florida
12 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)
4 Temple
13 Middle Tennessee
6 Notre Dame
11 Washington
3 Michigan
14 Oral Roberts
7 Gonzaga
10 Harvard
2 Missouri
15 Montana
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 Louisville
12 Arizona
4 Indiana
13 Iona
6 Creighton
11 Texas
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 San Diego State
10 Cincinnati
2 Duke
15 Valparaiso
Next Four Out: Tennessee, NC State, Dayton, Central Florida
South (#1 Overall)
1 Kentucky
16 UNC Asheville vs Mississippi Valley State
8 Iowa State
9 California
5 UNLV
12 Long Beach State
4 Florida State
13 Xavier vs Mississippi State
6 St. Mary's
11 West Virginia
3 Marquette
14 Belmont
7 Murray State
10 Southern Miss
2 Ohio State
15 Bucknell
West (#4 Overall)
1 North Carolina
16 Texas-Arlington
8 Kansas State
9 St. Louis
5 Wichita State
12 South Florida
4 Wisconsin
13 Drexel
6 New Mexico
11 Connecticut
3 Baylor
14 Nevada
7 Vanderbilt
10 Brigham Young
2 Michigan State
15 Davidson
East (#2 Overall)
1 Syracuse
16 Long Island
8 Virginia
9 Purdue
5 Florida
12 Colorado State vs Miami (FL)
4 Temple
13 Middle Tennessee
6 Notre Dame
11 Washington
3 Michigan
14 Oral Roberts
7 Gonzaga
10 Harvard
2 Missouri
15 Montana
Midwest (#3 Overall)
1 Kansas
16 Stony Brook vs Savannah State
8 Memphis
9 Alabama
5 Louisville
12 Arizona
4 Indiana
13 Iona
6 Creighton
11 Texas
3 Georgetown
14 Akron
7 San Diego State
10 Cincinnati
2 Duke
15 Valparaiso
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
