Sunday, March 13, 2011

Final Predictions

East (#1 Overall)

Cleveland, OH
1 Ohio State
16 UNC-Asheville vs Alabama State

8 George Mason
9 Marquette

Tampa, FL
5 Arizona
12 Colorado

4 Louisville
13 Oakland

Chicago, IL
6 Temple
11 Memphis

3 Kentucky
14 Akron

Washington, DC
7 UNLV
10 Michigan

2 Connecticut
15 Boston University


West (#4 Overall)

Charlotte, NC
1 Duke
16 UC-Santa Barbara

8 Tennessee
9 Utah State

Denver, CO
5 Texas A&M
12 Clemson vs St. Mary's

4 Brigham Young
13 Indiana State

Tampa, FL
6 West Virginia
11 Michigan State

3 Florida
14 Bucknell

Chicago, IL
7 Kansas State
10 Richmond

2 Notre Dame
15 Saint Peter's


Southwest (#2 Overall)

Tulsa, OK
1 Kansas
16 Arkansas-Little Rock vs Texas-San Antonio

8 Washington
9 Florida State

Tucson, AZ
5 Cincinnati
12 Butler

4 Wisconsin
13 Belmont

Washington, DC
6 Vanderbilt
11 Illinois

3 Syracuse
14 Morehead State

Tucson, AZ
7 Georgetown
10 Gonzaga

2 San Diego State
15 Northern Colorado


Southeast (#3 Overall)

Cleveland, OH
1 Pittsburgh
16 Hampton

8 UCLA
9 Missouri

Denver, CO
5 St. John's
12 Virginia Tech vs Alabama

4 Purdue
13 Princeton

Charlotte, NC
6 Xavier
11 Penn State

3 North Carolina
14 Wofford

Tulsa, OK
7 Old Dominion
10 Villanova

2 Texas
15 Long Island

Selection Sunday Projections

For these predictions, I have assumed tomorrow's winners will be North Carolina, Florida, Richmond, and Ohio State.  This is not my final projection, I will post that in the afternoon.


East (#1 Overall)

Cleveland, OH
1 Ohio State
16 UNC-Asheville vs Alabama State

8 UCLA
9 Marquette

Tucson, AZ
5 St. John's
12 Colorado

4 Kentucky
13 Oakland

Washington, DC
6 Temple
11 Memphis

3 Syracuse
14 Akron

Tulsa, OK
7 UNLV
10 Michigan

2 Texas
15 Boston University


West (#4 Overall)

Chicago, IL
1 Notre Dame
16 UC-Santa Barbara

8 Tennessee
9 Utah State

Denver, CO
5 Texas A&M
12 Clemson vs St. Mary's

4 Brigham Young
13 Indiana State

Chicago, IL
6 Xavier
11 Michigan State

3 Louisville
14 Bucknell

Charlotte, NC
7 Old Dominion
10 Villanova

2 Duke
15 Saint Peter's


Southwest (#2 Overall)

Tulsa, OK
1 Kansas
16 Arkansas-Little Rock vs Texas-San Antonio

8 Washington
9 Florida State

Denver, CO
5 Cincinnati
12 Butler

4 Wisconsin
13 Belmont

Washington, DC
6 Vanderbilt
11 Illinois

3 Connecticut
14 Morehead State

Tucson, AZ
7 Georgetown
10 Gonzaga

2 San Diego State
15 Northern Colorado


Southeast (#3 Overall)

Cleveland, OH
1 Pittsburgh
16 Hampton

8 George Mason
9 Missouri

Tampa, FL
5 Arizona
12 Virginia Tech vs Alabama

4 Purdue
13 Princeton

Tampa, FL
6 West Virginia
11 Penn State

3 Florida
14 Wofford

Charlotte, NC
7 Kansas State
10 Richmond

2 North Carolina
15 Long Island

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Bubble Analysis

While not absolute locks, I believe Florida State, Villanova, Michigan, Illinois, Colorado, Penn State, and Richmond are fairly safe to make the field at this point.  Here are my rankings of the teams on the bubble, and my reasoning behind placing each team where they are listed:

Virginia Tech
Clemson
St. Mary's
------------
Alabama
------------
Georgia
UAB
Boston College
Southern Cal
Missouri State
Harvard

The team I'm most comfortable putting in the field is Virginia Tech.  While the Hokies have some ugly marks on their resume (61 RPI, 75 SOS, only 2 Top 50 wins, 3 sub-100 losses), I think there are enough positives (signature win over Duke, 8-8 vs Top 100, 10-8 road/neutral record, beat FSU twice, advanced to ACC semis) for them to receive an at-large.

Even though Clemson went 3-0 against Va Tech and Boston College and has slightly better computer numbers, they are a putrid 0-6 vs the Top 50 and are only 6-9 away from home.  Those numbers are enough to leave Clemson in a very precarious position heading into Selection Sunday.  Still, they looked good in Greensboro this weekend, and we'll find out how much the 'eye test' matters to the Selection Committee tomorrow.

St. Mary's was less-than-impressive down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 6, including a horrendous loss to 4-24 San Diego.  Still, they finished the season with a top 50 RPI, earned a share of the WCC regular-season title, and have a win over St. John's in their back pocket.  The lack of bid stealers this week has really saved the Gaels, but it would not surprise me to not see their name on the bracket tomorrow afternoon.

Alabama has been the most difficult team to place for over a month now.  The Crimson Tide are going to set a record one way or the other:  either they're going to have the worst RPI (80) of any team to ever receive an at-large, or they are going to have the best ever conference record (13-5) of any Big Six team to not receive an at-large. 

Even though the committee won't admit to it, I believe they are set on letting exactly 1 of Alabama/Georgia into the tournament field.  Georgia has a much better RPI and SOS, but Alabama has a better record vs the Top 50 and Top 100, and won both meetings against the Bulldogs.  I think the head-to-head sweep is ultimately what allows the Crimson Tide to sneak into the field and sends the Bulldogs to the NIT. 

UAB, Missouri State, and Harvard all either won or shared the regular season title in their conferences, but they have a combined 2 top 50 wins between the 3 of them (UAB over VCU, Harvard over Princeton).  We'll see how much the committee values regular-season championships and avoiding bad losses.  UAB is in the best position of the three since they won the best conference and have 10 top 100 wins, but I think at the end of the day all 3 teams fall short.

Boston College was very consistent this season and avoided bad losses, but they were swept by fellow bubble team Clemson and only have 1 Top 50 win (vs Texas A&M back in November).  That will likely doom the Eagles to the NIT.

Southern Cal is one of the biggest enigmas of this season.  They have a blowout victory over Texas, won at Tennessee, and won 3 games against the top 3 teams in the Pac 10 en route to a 10-8 conference record.  Still, they are only 19-14 on the year, including six losses to sub-100 teams and three losses to sub-200 teams (Bradley, TCU, Oregon State).  I think the Trojans are NIT bound, but would not be shocked to see their name on the bracket tomorrow.

Projections for 3/12/11

East (#1 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 Arkansas-Little Rock vs Hampton

8 UCLA
9 Marquette

5 Vanderbilt
12 Butler

4 Connecticut
13 Kent State

6 Temple
11 Clemson

3 Syracuse
14 Bucknell

7 UNLV
10 Gonzaga

2 Texas
15 Northern Colorado


West (#4 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 Boston University

8 George Mason
9 Missouri

5 Wisconsin
12 UTEP

4 Kentucky
13 Oakland

6 West Virginia
11 Michigan

3 San Diego State
14 Morehead State

7 Kansas State
10 Villanova

2 Duke
15 Saint Peter's


Southwest (#2 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 UNC-Asheville vs Alabama State

8 Utah State
9 Tennessee

5 St. John's
12 Virginia Tech vs Penn State

4 Arizona
13 Belmont

6 Xavier
11 Colorado

3 Louisville
14 Indiana State

7 Old Dominion
10 Michigan State

2 North Carolina
15 Long Island


Southeast (#3 Overall)

1 Notre Dame
16 McNeese State

8 Florida State
9 Washington

5 Texas A&M
12 Alabama vs St. Mary's

4 Purdue
13 Harvard

6 Cincinnati
11 Richmond

3 Florida
14 Wofford

7 Georgetown
10 Illinois

2 Brigham Young
15 Long Beach State


Still In the Mix:  Georgia, UAB, Boston College, Memphis, USC, Missouri State, VCU, New Mexico

Friday, March 11, 2011

Projections for 3/11/11

East (#1 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 McNeese State vs Bethune-Cookman

8 Utah State
9 Marquette

5 Texas A&M
12 Butler

4 Connecticut
13 Harvard

6 Temple
11 St. Mary's

3 Florida
14 Bucknell

7 Kansas State
10 Washington

2 Syracuse
15 Long Island


West (#4 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 Boston University

8 George Mason
9 Missouri

5 Arizona
12 Boston College vs Alabama

4 Wisconsin
13 Kent State

6 Vanderbilt
11 Colorado

3 North Carolina
14 Indiana State

7 Georgetown
10 Richmond

2 Brigham Young
15 Long Beach State


Southwest (#2 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Arkansas-Little Rock vs Texas Southern

8 Illinois
9 Tennessee

5 Xavier
12 UTEP

4 Louisville
13 Belmont

6 West Virginia
11 Michigan

3 San Diego State
14 Wofford

7 Old Dominion
10 Gonzaga

2 Duke
15 Saint Peter's


Southeast (#3 Overall)

1 Notre Dame
16 UNC-Asheville

8 UCLA
9 Florida State

5 Kentucky
12 Michigan State vs Clemson

4 St. John's
13 Oakland

6 Cincinnati
11 Georgia

3 Purdue
14 Morehead State

7 UNLV
10 Villanova

2 Texas
15 Long Beach State


Still in the Mix:  Virginia Tech, UAB, USC, Penn State, VCU, Missouri State, New Mexico

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Projections for 3/10/11

First Four Out:  Colorado, VCU, Memphis, USC

Still in the Mix:  Penn State, Colorado State, Missouri State, Washington State


East (#1 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 McNeese State vs Bethune-Cookman

8 Villanova
9 Missouri

5 Xavier
12 Clemson vs Alabama

4 Louisville
13 Kent State

6 Georgetown
11 Michigan

3 Brigham Young
14 Bucknell

7 Old Dominion
10 Washington

2 North Carolina
15 Long Island


West (#4 Overall)

1 Notre Dame
16 UNC-Asheville

8 Utah State
9 UCLA

5 Connecticut
12 Michigan State vs Virginia Tech

4 Kentucky
13 Oakland

6 Texas A&M
11 Tennessee

3 San Diego State
14 Indiana State

7 Temple
10 Marquette

2 Duke
15 Northern Colorado


Southwest (#2 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Arkansas-Little Rock vs Texas Southern

8 Illinois
9 Gonzaga

5 Arizona
12 UAB

4 St. John's
13 Belmont

6 Vanderbilt
11 Boston College

3 Wisconsin
14 Morehead State

7 Kansas State
10 Richmond

2 Syracuse
15 Saint Peter's


Southeast (#3 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 Boston University

8 Florida State
9 George Mason

5 Cincinnati
12 Butler

4 Florida
13 Harvard

6 West Virginia
11 St. Mary's

3 Purdue
14 Wofford

7 UNLV
10 Georgia

2 Texas
15 Long Beach State

Monday, March 7, 2011

Projections for 3/7/11

First Four Out:  Colorado, VCU, Memphis, USC

Still in the Mix:  Missouri State, Baylor, Penn State, Nebraska, Colorado State


East (#1 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 McNeese State vs Texas Southern

8 Villanova
9 Missouri

5 Xavier
12 Clemson vs Alabama

4 Louisville
13 Charleston

6 Connecticut
11 Michigan State

3 Brigham Young
14 Bucknell

7 Old Dominion
10 Gonzaga

2 North Carolina
15 Long Island


West (#4 Overall)

1 Notre Dame
16 Northern Colorado

8 Utah State
9 UCLA

5 Georgetown
12 Michigan vs Virginia Tech

4 Kentucky
13 Oakland

6 Texas A&M
11 Marquette

3 San Diego State
14 Kent State

7 Temple
10 Tennessee

2 Duke
15 Boston University


Southwest (#2 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 UNC-Asheville vs Bethune-Cookman

8 Illinois
9 Georgia

5 Arizona
12 UAB

4 St. John's
13 Belmont

6 Vanderbilt
11 Boston College

3 Wisconsin
14 Morehead State

7 Kansas State
10 Richmond

2 Syracuse
15 Indiana State


Southeast (#2 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 North Texas

8 Florida State
9 George Mason

5 West Virginia
12 Butler

4 Florida
13 Harvard

6 Cincinnati
11 St. Mary's

3 Purdue
14 Iona

7 UNLV
10 Washington

2 Texas
15 Long Beach State

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Projections for 3/6/11

First Four Out:  Colorado, Memphis, VCU, USC

Still in the Mix:  Baylor, Nebraska, Penn State, Colorado State


East (#1 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 McNeese State vs Texas Southern

8 Villanova
9 Missouri

5 Xavier
12 Clemson vs Alabama

4 Louisville
13 Missouri State

6 Connecticut
11 Michigan State

3 Brigham Young
14 Bucknell

7 Kansas State
10 Tennessee

2 North Carolina
15 Long Island


West (#4 Overall)

1 Notre Dame
16 Northern Colorado

8 Utah State
9 UCLA

5 Georgetown
12 Michigan vs Virginia Tech

4 Kentucky
13 Oakland

6 Texas A&M
11 Marquette

3 San Diego State
14 Kent State

7 George Mason
10 Richmond

2 Duke
15 Morehead State


Southwest (#2 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 UNC-Asheville vs Bethune-Cookman

8 Illinois
9 Georgia

5 Arizona
12 UAB

4 St. John's
13 Belmont

6 Vanderbilt
11 Boston College

3 Wisconsin
14 Vermont

7 Temple
10 Gonzaga

2 Syracuse
15 Fairfield


Southeast (#3 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 Florida Atlantic

8 Old Dominion
9 Florida State

5 West Virginia
12 Butler

4 Florida
13 Harvard

6 Cincinnati
11 St. Mary's

3 Purdue
14 Charleston

7 UNLV
10 Washington

2 Texas
15 Long Beach State

Friday, March 4, 2011

Projections for 3/4/11

First Four Out:  Colorado, Washington State, Nebraska, Colorado State

Next Four Out:  Baylor, VCU, Memphis, Wichita State


East (#1 Overall)

1 Ohio State
16 McNeese State vs Texas Southern

8 Old Dominion
9 Georgia

5 Arizona
12 St. Mary's

4 Louisville
13 Belmont

6 West Virginia
11 Michigan State

3 San Diego State
14 Charleston

7 Temple
10 Florida State

2 Texas
15 Fairfield


West (#4 Overall)

1 Duke
16 Florida Atlantic

8 UNLV
9 Washington

5 Xavier
12 Missouri State

4 Georgetown
13 Clemson vs Alabama

6 Vanderbilt
11 Marquette

3 Wisconsin
14 Kent State

7 Kansas State
10 Gonzaga

2 Notre Dame
15 Long Island


Southwest (#2 Overall)

1 Kansas
16 Northern Colorado vs Bethune Cookman

8 UCLA
9 Illinois

5 St. John's
12 Butler

4 Florida
13 Princeton

6 Texas A&M
11 Richmond

3 Syracuse
14 Vermont

7 Villanova
10 Virginia Tech

2 Brigham Young
15 Coastal Carolina


Southeast (#3 Overall)

1 Pittsburgh
16 Long Beach State

8 Missouri
9 Utah State

5 Connecticut
12 Boston College vs Michigan

4 Kentucky
13 Oakland

6 Cincinnati
11 UAB

3 North Carolina
14 Bucknell

7 George Mason
10 Tennessee

2 Purdue
15 Murray State